Modeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Caspian Pond Turtle (Mauremys caspica) under Climate Change Scenarios
Although turtles are the most threatened taxonomic group within the reptile class, we have a very limited understanding of how turtles respond to climate change. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate changes on the geographical distribution of Caspian pond turtle (Mauremys caspica). We used an e...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
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Isfahan University of Technology
2022-03-01
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| Series: | Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ijae.iut.ac.ir/article-1-1085-en.html |
| _version_ | 1811183343636578304 |
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| author | M. R. Ashrafzadeh Z. Shojaei F. Shaloei A. A. Naghipour M. Heidarian |
| author_facet | M. R. Ashrafzadeh Z. Shojaei F. Shaloei A. A. Naghipour M. Heidarian |
| author_sort | M. R. Ashrafzadeh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Although turtles are the most threatened taxonomic group within the reptile class, we have a very limited understanding of how turtles respond to climate change. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate changes on the geographical distribution of Caspian pond turtle (Mauremys caspica). We used an ensemble approach by combining six species distribution models including artificial neural network, generalized boosted model, generalized linear model, flexible discriminant analysis, random forest and multivariate adaptive regression splines. To predict the future distribution, modelling projection of MRI-CGCM3 was used for the year 2070 under four scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP). Based on the findings, the suitable habitat of Caspian pond turtle was estimated to be about 835941 km2 (about 8.73%) of the study area. Our model projections showed that about 26 to 33% of the current suitable habitats will be unsuitable by 2070 due to climate change. The annual precipitation (24.56%), precipitation of wettest quarter (24.28%), precipitation seasonality (16.93%) and temperature seasonality (14.64%) had the highest contribution to model performance of Caspian pond turtles. Overall, our findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive understanding of the complex effects of climate change on the species, specially turtles. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T09:46:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5790b2eee7224bc8b6c6b22c28355f63 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2476-3128 2476-3217 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T09:46:17Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | Isfahan University of Technology |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology |
| spelling | doaj.art-5790b2eee7224bc8b6c6b22c28355f632022-12-22T04:30:58ZfasIsfahan University of TechnologyIranian Journal of Applied Ecology2476-31282476-32172022-03-011043951Modeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Caspian Pond Turtle (Mauremys caspica) under Climate Change ScenariosM. R. Ashrafzadeh0Z. Shojaei1F. Shaloei2A. A. Naghipour3M. Heidarian4 Shahrekord University Shahrekord University Shahrekord University Shahrekord University Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University Although turtles are the most threatened taxonomic group within the reptile class, we have a very limited understanding of how turtles respond to climate change. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate changes on the geographical distribution of Caspian pond turtle (Mauremys caspica). We used an ensemble approach by combining six species distribution models including artificial neural network, generalized boosted model, generalized linear model, flexible discriminant analysis, random forest and multivariate adaptive regression splines. To predict the future distribution, modelling projection of MRI-CGCM3 was used for the year 2070 under four scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP). Based on the findings, the suitable habitat of Caspian pond turtle was estimated to be about 835941 km2 (about 8.73%) of the study area. Our model projections showed that about 26 to 33% of the current suitable habitats will be unsuitable by 2070 due to climate change. The annual precipitation (24.56%), precipitation of wettest quarter (24.28%), precipitation seasonality (16.93%) and temperature seasonality (14.64%) had the highest contribution to model performance of Caspian pond turtles. Overall, our findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive understanding of the complex effects of climate change on the species, specially turtles.http://ijae.iut.ac.ir/article-1-1085-en.htmlfreshwater pond turtleclimate changeclimatic niche modelinggeographical distributionconservation |
| spellingShingle | M. R. Ashrafzadeh Z. Shojaei F. Shaloei A. A. Naghipour M. Heidarian Modeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Caspian Pond Turtle (Mauremys caspica) under Climate Change Scenarios Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology freshwater pond turtle climate change climatic niche modeling geographical distribution conservation |
| title | Modeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Caspian Pond Turtle (Mauremys caspica) under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_full | Modeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Caspian Pond Turtle (Mauremys caspica) under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Modeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Caspian Pond Turtle (Mauremys caspica) under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Caspian Pond Turtle (Mauremys caspica) under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_short | Modeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Caspian Pond Turtle (Mauremys caspica) under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_sort | modeling current and future potential distributions of caspian pond turtle mauremys caspica under climate change scenarios |
| topic | freshwater pond turtle climate change climatic niche modeling geographical distribution conservation |
| url | http://ijae.iut.ac.ir/article-1-1085-en.html |
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