Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective
<p>To improve our understanding of the influence of tropical cyclones (TCs) on coastal flooding, the relationships between storm surge and TC characteristics are analyzed for 12 sites along the east coast of the United States. This analysis offers a unique perspective by first examining the re...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1287/2022/nhess-22-1287-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811271533204602880 |
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| author | K. L. Towey J. F. Booth J. F. Booth A. Rodriguez Enriquez T. Wahl |
| author_facet | K. L. Towey J. F. Booth J. F. Booth A. Rodriguez Enriquez T. Wahl |
| author_sort | K. L. Towey |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>To improve our understanding of the influence of tropical
cyclones (TCs) on coastal flooding, the relationships between storm surge
and TC characteristics are analyzed for 12 sites along the east coast of the
United States. This analysis offers a unique perspective by first examining
the relationship between the characteristics of TCs and their resulting
storm surge and then determining the probabilities of storm surge associated
with TCs based on exceeding certain TC characteristic thresholds. Using
observational data, the statistical dependencies of storm surge on TCs are
examined for these characteristics: TC proximity, intensity, path angle, and
propagation speed, by applying both exponential and linear fits to the data.
At each tide gauge along the east coast of the United States, storm surge is
influenced differently by these TC characteristics, with some locations more
strongly influenced by TC intensity and others by TC proximity. The
correlation for individual and combined TC characteristics increases when
conditional sorting is applied to isolate strong TCs close to a location.
The probabilities of TCs generating surge exceeding specific return levels
(RLs) are then analyzed for TCs passing within 500 km of a tide gauge, where
between 6 % and 28 % of TCs were found to cause surge exceeding the
1-year RL. If only the closest and strongest TCs are considered, the
percentage of TCs that generate surge exceeding the 1-year RL is between 30 % and 70 % at sites north of Sewell's Point, VA, and over 65 % at
almost all sites south of Charleston, SC. When examining storm surge
produced by TCs, single-variable regression provides a good fit, while
multi-variable regression improves the fit, particularly when focusing on TC
proximity and intensity, which are, probabilistically, the two most
influential TC characteristics on storm surge.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T22:21:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-57924bcbe0624751aac935f645345189 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T22:21:41Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-57924bcbe0624751aac935f6453451892022-12-22T03:14:19ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812022-04-01221287130010.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspectiveK. L. Towey0J. F. Booth1J. F. Booth2A. Rodriguez Enriquez3T. Wahl4Earth and Environmental Science, The Graduate Center, City University of New York, New York, NY, 10016, USAEarth and Environmental Science, The Graduate Center, City University of New York, New York, NY, 10016, USAEarth and Atmospheric Science, The City College of New York, City University of New York, New York, NY, 10031, USACivil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering and National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, 32816, USACivil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering and National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, 32816, USA<p>To improve our understanding of the influence of tropical cyclones (TCs) on coastal flooding, the relationships between storm surge and TC characteristics are analyzed for 12 sites along the east coast of the United States. This analysis offers a unique perspective by first examining the relationship between the characteristics of TCs and their resulting storm surge and then determining the probabilities of storm surge associated with TCs based on exceeding certain TC characteristic thresholds. Using observational data, the statistical dependencies of storm surge on TCs are examined for these characteristics: TC proximity, intensity, path angle, and propagation speed, by applying both exponential and linear fits to the data. At each tide gauge along the east coast of the United States, storm surge is influenced differently by these TC characteristics, with some locations more strongly influenced by TC intensity and others by TC proximity. The correlation for individual and combined TC characteristics increases when conditional sorting is applied to isolate strong TCs close to a location. The probabilities of TCs generating surge exceeding specific return levels (RLs) are then analyzed for TCs passing within 500 km of a tide gauge, where between 6 % and 28 % of TCs were found to cause surge exceeding the 1-year RL. If only the closest and strongest TCs are considered, the percentage of TCs that generate surge exceeding the 1-year RL is between 30 % and 70 % at sites north of Sewell's Point, VA, and over 65 % at almost all sites south of Charleston, SC. When examining storm surge produced by TCs, single-variable regression provides a good fit, while multi-variable regression improves the fit, particularly when focusing on TC proximity and intensity, which are, probabilistically, the two most influential TC characteristics on storm surge.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1287/2022/nhess-22-1287-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | K. L. Towey J. F. Booth J. F. Booth A. Rodriguez Enriquez T. Wahl Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective |
| title_full | Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective |
| title_fullStr | Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective |
| title_short | Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective |
| title_sort | tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the united states a cyclone based perspective |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1287/2022/nhess-22-1287-2022.pdf |
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