Dry growing seasons predicted Central American migration to the US from 2012 to 2018
Abstract Controlling for factors such as criminal violence and poverty, we tested if drier than usual growing season weather was a predictor of emigration from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to the US between 2012 and 2018. We focus on growing season weather because agriculture is a primary tr...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-43668-9 |
| _version_ | 1797647328836845568 |
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| author | Andrew Linke Stephanie Leutert Joshua Busby Maria Duque Matthew Shawcroft Simon Brewer |
| author_facet | Andrew Linke Stephanie Leutert Joshua Busby Maria Duque Matthew Shawcroft Simon Brewer |
| author_sort | Andrew Linke |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Controlling for factors such as criminal violence and poverty, we tested if drier than usual growing season weather was a predictor of emigration from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to the US between 2012 and 2018. We focus on growing season weather because agriculture is a primary transmission pathway from the effects of climate change upon migration. We secured the migration apprehensions data for our analysis through a FOIA request to US Customs and Border Protection. Border Patrol intake interviews recorded the original home location of families that arrived at the southern US border. We used this geographic information to measure recent weather patterns and social circumstances in the area that each family departed. We found 70.7% more emigration to the US when local growing seasons in Central America were recently drier than the historical average since 1901. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:14:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-57a049435e494a60bbcfbddd01aa5d6e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:14:42Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-57a049435e494a60bbcfbddd01aa5d6e2023-10-29T12:23:12ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-10-011311910.1038/s41598-023-43668-9Dry growing seasons predicted Central American migration to the US from 2012 to 2018Andrew Linke0Stephanie Leutert1Joshua Busby2Maria Duque3Matthew Shawcroft4Simon Brewer5Department of Geography, University of UtahLBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at AustinLBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at AustinUniversity of Texas at AustinDepartment of Geography, University of UtahDepartment of Geography, University of UtahAbstract Controlling for factors such as criminal violence and poverty, we tested if drier than usual growing season weather was a predictor of emigration from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to the US between 2012 and 2018. We focus on growing season weather because agriculture is a primary transmission pathway from the effects of climate change upon migration. We secured the migration apprehensions data for our analysis through a FOIA request to US Customs and Border Protection. Border Patrol intake interviews recorded the original home location of families that arrived at the southern US border. We used this geographic information to measure recent weather patterns and social circumstances in the area that each family departed. We found 70.7% more emigration to the US when local growing seasons in Central America were recently drier than the historical average since 1901.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-43668-9 |
| spellingShingle | Andrew Linke Stephanie Leutert Joshua Busby Maria Duque Matthew Shawcroft Simon Brewer Dry growing seasons predicted Central American migration to the US from 2012 to 2018 Scientific Reports |
| title | Dry growing seasons predicted Central American migration to the US from 2012 to 2018 |
| title_full | Dry growing seasons predicted Central American migration to the US from 2012 to 2018 |
| title_fullStr | Dry growing seasons predicted Central American migration to the US from 2012 to 2018 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dry growing seasons predicted Central American migration to the US from 2012 to 2018 |
| title_short | Dry growing seasons predicted Central American migration to the US from 2012 to 2018 |
| title_sort | dry growing seasons predicted central american migration to the us from 2012 to 2018 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-43668-9 |
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