A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate
Abstract Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (Tw) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade,...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43121-5 |
| _version_ | 1827603329522335744 |
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| author | Jennifer Vanos Gisel Guzman-Echavarria Jane W. Baldwin Coen Bongers Kristie L. Ebi Ollie Jay |
| author_facet | Jennifer Vanos Gisel Guzman-Echavarria Jane W. Baldwin Coen Bongers Kristie L. Ebi Ollie Jay |
| author_sort | Jennifer Vanos |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (Tw) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current estimates of survivability and introduce liveability (maximum safe, sustained activity) under current and future climates. Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation of risks by the 35 °C Tw model in hot-dry conditions. Updated survivability limits correspond to Tw~25.8–34.1 °C (young) and ~21.9–33.7 °C (old)—0.9–13.1 °C lower than Tw = 35 °C. For older female adults, estimates are ~7.2–13.1 °C lower than 35 °C in dry conditions. Liveability declines with sun exposure and humidity, yet most dramatically with age (2.5–3.0 METs lower for older adults). Reductions in safe activity for younger and older adults between the present and future indicate a stronger impact from aging than warming. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:37:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-57a8413f337344fa8c9dc581fabca98b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:37:39Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-57a8413f337344fa8c9dc581fabca98b2023-12-03T12:27:46ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232023-11-0114111410.1038/s41467-023-43121-5A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climateJennifer Vanos0Gisel Guzman-Echavarria1Jane W. Baldwin2Coen Bongers3Kristie L. Ebi4Ollie Jay5School of Sustainability, Arizona State UniversitySchool of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State UniversityDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California IrvineDepartment of Medical Sciences, Radboud university medical centerCenter for Health and the Global Environment, University of WashingtonHeat and Health Research Incubator, University of SydneyAbstract Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (Tw) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current estimates of survivability and introduce liveability (maximum safe, sustained activity) under current and future climates. Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation of risks by the 35 °C Tw model in hot-dry conditions. Updated survivability limits correspond to Tw~25.8–34.1 °C (young) and ~21.9–33.7 °C (old)—0.9–13.1 °C lower than Tw = 35 °C. For older female adults, estimates are ~7.2–13.1 °C lower than 35 °C in dry conditions. Liveability declines with sun exposure and humidity, yet most dramatically with age (2.5–3.0 METs lower for older adults). Reductions in safe activity for younger and older adults between the present and future indicate a stronger impact from aging than warming.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43121-5 |
| spellingShingle | Jennifer Vanos Gisel Guzman-Echavarria Jane W. Baldwin Coen Bongers Kristie L. Ebi Ollie Jay A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate Nature Communications |
| title | A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate |
| title_full | A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate |
| title_fullStr | A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate |
| title_short | A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate |
| title_sort | physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43121-5 |
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