Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)
Abstract This study evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on runoff and hydrological drought trends in the Hablehroud river basin in central Iran. We used a daily time series of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and precipitation (PCP) for the baseline period (1982–2005)...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2021-09-01
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| Series: | Applied Water Science |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-021-01494-2 |
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| author | Morteza Lotfirad Arash Adib Jaber Salehpoor Afshin Ashrafzadeh Ozgur Kisi |
| author_facet | Morteza Lotfirad Arash Adib Jaber Salehpoor Afshin Ashrafzadeh Ozgur Kisi |
| author_sort | Morteza Lotfirad |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on runoff and hydrological drought trends in the Hablehroud river basin in central Iran. We used a daily time series of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and precipitation (PCP) for the baseline period (1982–2005) analysis. For future projections, we used the output of 23 CMIP5 GCMs and two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; then, PCP, Tmin, and Tmax were projected in the future period (2025–2048). The GCMs were weighed based on the K-nearest neighbors algorithm. The results indicated a rising temperature in all months and increasing PCP in most months throughout the Hablehroud river basin's areas for the future period. The highest increase in the Tmin and Tmax in the south of the river basin under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, was 1.87 °C and 1.80 °C. Furthermore, the highest reduction in the PCP was 54.88% in August under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The river flow was simulated by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The annual runoff under the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 declined by 11.44% and 13.13%, respectively. The basin runoff had a downward trend at the baseline period; however, it will have a downward trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario and an upward trend in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the future period. This study also analyzed drought by calculating the streamflow drought index for different time scales. Overall, the Hablehroud river basin will face short-term and medium-term hydrological drought in the future period. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T18:56:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-57d445f0b50a4c199a98a81bd3e2f987 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2190-5487 2190-5495 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T18:56:41Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Applied Water Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-57d445f0b50a4c199a98a81bd3e2f9872022-12-21T22:20:30ZengSpringerOpenApplied Water Science2190-54872190-54952021-09-01111012410.1007/s13201-021-01494-2Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)Morteza Lotfirad0Arash Adib1Jaber Salehpoor2Afshin Ashrafzadeh3Ozgur Kisi4Civil Engineering and Architecture Faculty, Shahid Chamran University of AhvazCivil Engineering and Architecture Faculty, Shahid Chamran University of AhvazWater Engineering Department, Agricultural Sciences Faculty, University of GuilanWater Engineering Department, Agricultural Sciences Faculty, University of GuilanCivil Engineering Department, Ilia State UniversityAbstract This study evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on runoff and hydrological drought trends in the Hablehroud river basin in central Iran. We used a daily time series of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and precipitation (PCP) for the baseline period (1982–2005) analysis. For future projections, we used the output of 23 CMIP5 GCMs and two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; then, PCP, Tmin, and Tmax were projected in the future period (2025–2048). The GCMs were weighed based on the K-nearest neighbors algorithm. The results indicated a rising temperature in all months and increasing PCP in most months throughout the Hablehroud river basin's areas for the future period. The highest increase in the Tmin and Tmax in the south of the river basin under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, was 1.87 °C and 1.80 °C. Furthermore, the highest reduction in the PCP was 54.88% in August under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The river flow was simulated by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The annual runoff under the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 declined by 11.44% and 13.13%, respectively. The basin runoff had a downward trend at the baseline period; however, it will have a downward trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario and an upward trend in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the future period. This study also analyzed drought by calculating the streamflow drought index for different time scales. Overall, the Hablehroud river basin will face short-term and medium-term hydrological drought in the future period.https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-021-01494-2Climate changeStochastic downscalingRainfall-runoffTime series analysisStreamflow drought index |
| spellingShingle | Morteza Lotfirad Arash Adib Jaber Salehpoor Afshin Ashrafzadeh Ozgur Kisi Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran) Applied Water Science Climate change Stochastic downscaling Rainfall-runoff Time series analysis Streamflow drought index |
| title | Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran) |
| title_full | Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran) |
| title_fullStr | Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran) |
| title_short | Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran) |
| title_sort | simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin the hablehroud iran |
| topic | Climate change Stochastic downscaling Rainfall-runoff Time series analysis Streamflow drought index |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-021-01494-2 |
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