Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020
An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January–February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the cour...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2020-01-01
|
| Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300063 |
| _version_ | 1827279909088657408 |
|---|---|
| author | Kenji Mizumoto Gerardo Chowell |
| author_facet | Kenji Mizumoto Gerardo Chowell |
| author_sort | Kenji Mizumoto |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January–February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ~11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1–7). Our findings suggest that Rt decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of Rt reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:27:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-57f49846faff40c5add1fc5807865b6e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2468-0427 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:27:55Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| spelling | doaj.art-57f49846faff40c5add1fc5807865b6e2024-04-16T21:23:38ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272020-01-015264270Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020Kenji Mizumoto0Gerardo Chowell1Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University Yoshida-Nakaadachi-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan; Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan; Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Corresponding author. Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University Yoshida-Nakaadachi-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan.Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USAAn outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January–February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ~11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1–7). Our findings suggest that Rt decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of Rt reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300063CoronaEpidemicConfined settingsCruiseNext generation matrix |
| spellingShingle | Kenji Mizumoto Gerardo Chowell Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020 Infectious Disease Modelling Corona Epidemic Confined settings Cruise Next generation matrix |
| title | Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020 |
| title_full | Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020 |
| title_fullStr | Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020 |
| title_short | Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020 |
| title_sort | transmission potential of the novel coronavirus covid 19 onboard the diamond princess cruises ship 2020 |
| topic | Corona Epidemic Confined settings Cruise Next generation matrix |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300063 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kenjimizumoto transmissionpotentialofthenovelcoronaviruscovid19onboardthediamondprincesscruisesship2020 AT gerardochowell transmissionpotentialofthenovelcoronaviruscovid19onboardthediamondprincesscruisesship2020 |