Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisited
On 4–6 December 2015, storm Desmond caused very heavy rainfall in Northern England and Southern Scotland which led to widespread flooding. A week after the event we provided an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one-day precipitation events avera...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9663 |
| _version_ | 1827870832207069184 |
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| author | Friederike E L Otto Karin van der Wiel Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Sjoukje Philip Sarah F Kew Peter Uhe Heidi Cullen |
| author_facet | Friederike E L Otto Karin van der Wiel Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Sjoukje Philip Sarah F Kew Peter Uhe Heidi Cullen |
| author_sort | Friederike E L Otto |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | On 4–6 December 2015, storm Desmond caused very heavy rainfall in Northern England and Southern Scotland which led to widespread flooding. A week after the event we provided an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one-day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing Northern England and Southern Scotland using data and methods available immediately after the event occurred. The analysis was based on three independent methods of extreme event attribution: historical observed trends, coupled climate model simulations and a large ensemble of regional model simulations. All three methods agreed that the effect of climate change was positive, making precipitation events like this about 40% more likely, with a provisional 2.5%–97.5% confidence interval of 5%–80%. Here we revisit the assessment using more station data, an additional monthly event definition, a second global climate model and regional model simulations of winter 2015/16. The overall result of the analysis is similar to the real-time analysis with a best estimate of a 59% increase in event frequency, but a larger confidence interval that does include no change. It is important to highlight that the observational data in the additional monthly analysis does not only represent the rainfall associated with storm Desmond but also that of storms Eve and Frank occurring towards the end of the month. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-57fbb76402964e3f8f57472f3efbe500 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:34Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-57fbb76402964e3f8f57472f3efbe5002023-08-09T14:35:26ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113202400610.1088/1748-9326/aa9663Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisitedFriederike E L Otto0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8166-5917Karin van der Wiel1Geert Jan van Oldenborgh2Sjoukje Philip3Sarah F Kew4Peter Uhe5Heidi Cullen6Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford , OX1 3QY, United Kindom; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) , De Bilt, The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) , De Bilt, The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) , De Bilt, The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) , De Bilt, The NetherlandsEnvironmental Change Institute, University of Oxford , OX1 3QY, United KindomClimate Central , Princeton, NJ United States of AmericaOn 4–6 December 2015, storm Desmond caused very heavy rainfall in Northern England and Southern Scotland which led to widespread flooding. A week after the event we provided an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one-day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing Northern England and Southern Scotland using data and methods available immediately after the event occurred. The analysis was based on three independent methods of extreme event attribution: historical observed trends, coupled climate model simulations and a large ensemble of regional model simulations. All three methods agreed that the effect of climate change was positive, making precipitation events like this about 40% more likely, with a provisional 2.5%–97.5% confidence interval of 5%–80%. Here we revisit the assessment using more station data, an additional monthly event definition, a second global climate model and regional model simulations of winter 2015/16. The overall result of the analysis is similar to the real-time analysis with a best estimate of a 59% increase in event frequency, but a larger confidence interval that does include no change. It is important to highlight that the observational data in the additional monthly analysis does not only represent the rainfall associated with storm Desmond but also that of storms Eve and Frank occurring towards the end of the month.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9663extreme eventsattributionclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Friederike E L Otto Karin van der Wiel Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Sjoukje Philip Sarah F Kew Peter Uhe Heidi Cullen Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisited Environmental Research Letters extreme events attribution climate change |
| title | Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisited |
| title_full | Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisited |
| title_fullStr | Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisited |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisited |
| title_short | Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisited |
| title_sort | climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in northern england southern scotland like those of storm desmond a real time event attribution revisited |
| topic | extreme events attribution climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9663 |
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