An exploratory model for the non-fatal drowning risks in children in Guangdong, China
Abstract Background Drowning is a leading cause of accidental death in children under 14 years of age in Guangdong, China. We developed a statistical model to classify the risk of drowning among children based on the risk factors. Methods A multiple-stage cluster random sampling was employed to sele...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2019-05-01
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| Series: | BMC Public Health |
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| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-019-6944-5 |
| _version_ | 1818172634405273600 |
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| author | Haofeng Xu Xuhao Zhu Zhishan Zhou Yanjun Xu Yongjian Zhu Lifeng Lin Jinying Huang Ruilin Meng |
| author_facet | Haofeng Xu Xuhao Zhu Zhishan Zhou Yanjun Xu Yongjian Zhu Lifeng Lin Jinying Huang Ruilin Meng |
| author_sort | Haofeng Xu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Drowning is a leading cause of accidental death in children under 14 years of age in Guangdong, China. We developed a statistical model to classify the risk of drowning among children based on the risk factors. Methods A multiple-stage cluster random sampling was employed to select the students in Grades 3 to 9 in two townships in Qingyuan, Guangdong. Questionnaire was a self-reported measure consisting of general information, knowledge, attitudes and activities. A univariate logistic regression model was used to preliminarily select the independent variables at a P value of 0.1 for multivariable model. Three-quarters of the participants were randomly selected as a training sample to establish the model, and the remaining were treated as a testing sample to validate the model. Results A total of 8390 children were included in this study, about 12.18% (1013) experienced drowning during the past one year. In the univariate logistic regression model, introvert personality, unclear distributions of water areas on the way to school, and bad relationships with their classmates and families were positively associated with drowning. However, females, older age and lower swimming skills were negatively associated with drowning. After employing the prediction model with these factors to estimate drowning risk of the students in the testing samples, the results of Hosmer-Lemeshow tests showed non-significant differences between the predictive results and actual risk (χ2 = 5.97, P = 0.65). Conclusions Male, younger children, higher swimming skills, bad relationship with their classmates and families, introvert personality and unclear distributions of water areas on the way to school were important risk factors of non-fatal drowning among children. The prediction model based on these variables has an acceptable predictive ability. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T19:15:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-580b36102dc449b29c95aa2cb3b9add4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T19:15:44Z |
| publishDate | 2019-05-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-580b36102dc449b29c95aa2cb3b9add42022-12-22T00:53:39ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582019-05-011911710.1186/s12889-019-6944-5An exploratory model for the non-fatal drowning risks in children in Guangdong, ChinaHaofeng Xu0Xuhao Zhu1Zhishan Zhou2Yanjun Xu3Yongjian Zhu4Lifeng Lin5Jinying Huang6Ruilin Meng7Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Institute of Control and Prevention for Chronic Non-infective DiseaseQingyuan City Center for Disease Control and PreventionQingxin District Center for Disease Control and PreventionGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Institute of Control and Prevention for Chronic Non-infective DiseaseQingxin District Center for Disease Control and PreventionGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Center Director’s officeQingyuan City Center for Disease Control and PreventionGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Institute of Control and Prevention for Chronic Non-infective DiseaseAbstract Background Drowning is a leading cause of accidental death in children under 14 years of age in Guangdong, China. We developed a statistical model to classify the risk of drowning among children based on the risk factors. Methods A multiple-stage cluster random sampling was employed to select the students in Grades 3 to 9 in two townships in Qingyuan, Guangdong. Questionnaire was a self-reported measure consisting of general information, knowledge, attitudes and activities. A univariate logistic regression model was used to preliminarily select the independent variables at a P value of 0.1 for multivariable model. Three-quarters of the participants were randomly selected as a training sample to establish the model, and the remaining were treated as a testing sample to validate the model. Results A total of 8390 children were included in this study, about 12.18% (1013) experienced drowning during the past one year. In the univariate logistic regression model, introvert personality, unclear distributions of water areas on the way to school, and bad relationships with their classmates and families were positively associated with drowning. However, females, older age and lower swimming skills were negatively associated with drowning. After employing the prediction model with these factors to estimate drowning risk of the students in the testing samples, the results of Hosmer-Lemeshow tests showed non-significant differences between the predictive results and actual risk (χ2 = 5.97, P = 0.65). Conclusions Male, younger children, higher swimming skills, bad relationship with their classmates and families, introvert personality and unclear distributions of water areas on the way to school were important risk factors of non-fatal drowning among children. The prediction model based on these variables has an acceptable predictive ability.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-019-6944-5DrowningChildrenRisk factorsLogistic regression modelPrediction |
| spellingShingle | Haofeng Xu Xuhao Zhu Zhishan Zhou Yanjun Xu Yongjian Zhu Lifeng Lin Jinying Huang Ruilin Meng An exploratory model for the non-fatal drowning risks in children in Guangdong, China BMC Public Health Drowning Children Risk factors Logistic regression model Prediction |
| title | An exploratory model for the non-fatal drowning risks in children in Guangdong, China |
| title_full | An exploratory model for the non-fatal drowning risks in children in Guangdong, China |
| title_fullStr | An exploratory model for the non-fatal drowning risks in children in Guangdong, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | An exploratory model for the non-fatal drowning risks in children in Guangdong, China |
| title_short | An exploratory model for the non-fatal drowning risks in children in Guangdong, China |
| title_sort | exploratory model for the non fatal drowning risks in children in guangdong china |
| topic | Drowning Children Risk factors Logistic regression model Prediction |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-019-6944-5 |
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