Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations
Abstract Previous projections of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis due to global warming, even in terms of sign of the change, depends on the chosen model simulation. Here, we systematically examine projected changes in tropical cyclones using six global atmospheric models with medium-to-hig...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
SpringerOpen
2021-01-01
|
| Series: | Progress in Earth and Planetary Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00397-1 |
| _version_ | 1818561984924221440 |
|---|---|
| author | Yohei Yamada Chihiro Kodama Masaki Satoh Masato Sugi Malcolm J. Roberts Ryo Mizuta Akira T. Noda Tomoe Nasuno Masuo Nakano Pier Luigi Vidale |
| author_facet | Yohei Yamada Chihiro Kodama Masaki Satoh Masato Sugi Malcolm J. Roberts Ryo Mizuta Akira T. Noda Tomoe Nasuno Masuo Nakano Pier Luigi Vidale |
| author_sort | Yohei Yamada |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Previous projections of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis due to global warming, even in terms of sign of the change, depends on the chosen model simulation. Here, we systematically examine projected changes in tropical cyclones using six global atmospheric models with medium-to-high horizontal resolutions included in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project. Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis could be broken down into the contributions from (i) the tropical cyclone seed, a depression having a closed contour of sea level pressure with a warm core and (ii) the survival rate, the ratio of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis to that of tropical cyclone seeds. The multi-model ensemble mean indicates that tropical cyclone genesis frequencies are significantly decreased during the period 1990–2049, which is attributable to changes in tropical cyclone seeds. Analysis of the individual models shows that although most models project a more or less decreasing trend in tropical cyclone genesis frequencies and seeds, the survival rate also contributes to the result in some models. The present study indicates the usefulness of decomposition into the frequency of the tropical cyclone seeds and the survival rate to understand the cause of uncertainty in projected frequencies of tropical cyclone genesis. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T00:57:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-581080092c6b432abeca183ccdd30ea2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2197-4284 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T00:57:50Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Progress in Earth and Planetary Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-581080092c6b432abeca183ccdd30ea22022-12-21T23:23:27ZengSpringerOpenProgress in Earth and Planetary Science2197-42842021-01-018111710.1186/s40645-020-00397-1Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulationsYohei Yamada0Chihiro Kodama1Masaki Satoh2Masato Sugi3Malcolm J. Roberts4Ryo Mizuta5Akira T. Noda6Tomoe Nasuno7Masuo Nakano8Pier Luigi Vidale9Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and TechnologyJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and TechnologyAtmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of TokyoMeteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological AgencyMet OfficeMeteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological AgencyJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and TechnologyJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and TechnologyJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and TechnologyNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of ReadingAbstract Previous projections of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis due to global warming, even in terms of sign of the change, depends on the chosen model simulation. Here, we systematically examine projected changes in tropical cyclones using six global atmospheric models with medium-to-high horizontal resolutions included in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project. Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis could be broken down into the contributions from (i) the tropical cyclone seed, a depression having a closed contour of sea level pressure with a warm core and (ii) the survival rate, the ratio of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis to that of tropical cyclone seeds. The multi-model ensemble mean indicates that tropical cyclone genesis frequencies are significantly decreased during the period 1990–2049, which is attributable to changes in tropical cyclone seeds. Analysis of the individual models shows that although most models project a more or less decreasing trend in tropical cyclone genesis frequencies and seeds, the survival rate also contributes to the result in some models. The present study indicates the usefulness of decomposition into the frequency of the tropical cyclone seeds and the survival rate to understand the cause of uncertainty in projected frequencies of tropical cyclone genesis.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00397-1Global warmingTropical cycloneTropical cyclone seedSurvival rateHigh-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project |
| spellingShingle | Yohei Yamada Chihiro Kodama Masaki Satoh Masato Sugi Malcolm J. Roberts Ryo Mizuta Akira T. Noda Tomoe Nasuno Masuo Nakano Pier Luigi Vidale Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations Progress in Earth and Planetary Science Global warming Tropical cyclone Tropical cyclone seed Survival rate High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project |
| title | Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations |
| title_full | Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations |
| title_short | Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations |
| title_sort | evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high resolution multi model ensemble simulations |
| topic | Global warming Tropical cyclone Tropical cyclone seed Survival rate High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00397-1 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yoheiyamada evaluationofthecontributionoftropicalcycloneseedstochangesintropicalcyclonefrequencyduetoglobalwarminginhighresolutionmultimodelensemblesimulations AT chihirokodama evaluationofthecontributionoftropicalcycloneseedstochangesintropicalcyclonefrequencyduetoglobalwarminginhighresolutionmultimodelensemblesimulations AT masakisatoh evaluationofthecontributionoftropicalcycloneseedstochangesintropicalcyclonefrequencyduetoglobalwarminginhighresolutionmultimodelensemblesimulations AT masatosugi evaluationofthecontributionoftropicalcycloneseedstochangesintropicalcyclonefrequencyduetoglobalwarminginhighresolutionmultimodelensemblesimulations AT malcolmjroberts evaluationofthecontributionoftropicalcycloneseedstochangesintropicalcyclonefrequencyduetoglobalwarminginhighresolutionmultimodelensemblesimulations AT ryomizuta evaluationofthecontributionoftropicalcycloneseedstochangesintropicalcyclonefrequencyduetoglobalwarminginhighresolutionmultimodelensemblesimulations AT akiratnoda evaluationofthecontributionoftropicalcycloneseedstochangesintropicalcyclonefrequencyduetoglobalwarminginhighresolutionmultimodelensemblesimulations AT tomoenasuno evaluationofthecontributionoftropicalcycloneseedstochangesintropicalcyclonefrequencyduetoglobalwarminginhighresolutionmultimodelensemblesimulations AT masuonakano evaluationofthecontributionoftropicalcycloneseedstochangesintropicalcyclonefrequencyduetoglobalwarminginhighresolutionmultimodelensemblesimulations AT pierluigividale evaluationofthecontributionoftropicalcycloneseedstochangesintropicalcyclonefrequencyduetoglobalwarminginhighresolutionmultimodelensemblesimulations |