Multivariate Assessment of Low-Flow Hazards via Copulas: The Case Study of the Çoruh Basin (Turkey)
Bivariate modeling and hazard assessment of low flows are performed exploiting copulas. 7-day low flows observed, respectively, in the upper, middle and lower parts of the Çoruh basin (Turkey) are examined, considering three pairs of certified stations located in different sub-basins. A thorough sta...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-10-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/10/2848 |
| _version_ | 1797551061561507840 |
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| author | Fatih Tosunoğlu Gianfausto Salvadori Muhammet Yilmaz |
| author_facet | Fatih Tosunoğlu Gianfausto Salvadori Muhammet Yilmaz |
| author_sort | Fatih Tosunoğlu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Bivariate modeling and hazard assessment of low flows are performed exploiting copulas. 7-day low flows observed, respectively, in the upper, middle and lower parts of the Çoruh basin (Turkey) are examined, considering three pairs of certified stations located in different sub-basins. A thorough statistical analysis indicates that the GEV distribution can be used to model the marginal behavior of the low-flow. The joint distributions at each part are modeled via a dozen of copula families. As a result, the Husler–Reiss copula adequately fits the joint low flows in the upper part, while the t-Student copula turns out to best fit the other parts. In order to assess the low-flow hazard, these copulas are then used to compute joint return periods and failure probabilities under a critical bivariate “AND” hazard scenario. The results indicate that the middle and lower parts of the Çoruh basin are likely to experience the largest drought hazards. As a novelty, the statistical tools used allow to objectively quantify drought threatening in a thorough multivariate perspective, which involves distributional analysis, frequency analysis (return periods) and hazard analysis (failure probabilities). |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T15:39:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5827dd4349af42b98584dd9066f7d8a1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T15:39:24Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-5827dd4349af42b98584dd9066f7d8a12023-11-20T16:57:19ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412020-10-011210284810.3390/w12102848Multivariate Assessment of Low-Flow Hazards via Copulas: The Case Study of the Çoruh Basin (Turkey)Fatih Tosunoğlu0Gianfausto Salvadori1Muhammet Yilmaz2Department of Civil Engineering, Erzurum Technical University, 25050 Erzurum, TurkeyDipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università del Salento, I-73100 Lecce, ItalyDepartment of Civil Engineering, Erzurum Technical University, 25050 Erzurum, TurkeyBivariate modeling and hazard assessment of low flows are performed exploiting copulas. 7-day low flows observed, respectively, in the upper, middle and lower parts of the Çoruh basin (Turkey) are examined, considering three pairs of certified stations located in different sub-basins. A thorough statistical analysis indicates that the GEV distribution can be used to model the marginal behavior of the low-flow. The joint distributions at each part are modeled via a dozen of copula families. As a result, the Husler–Reiss copula adequately fits the joint low flows in the upper part, while the t-Student copula turns out to best fit the other parts. In order to assess the low-flow hazard, these copulas are then used to compute joint return periods and failure probabilities under a critical bivariate “AND” hazard scenario. The results indicate that the middle and lower parts of the Çoruh basin are likely to experience the largest drought hazards. As a novelty, the statistical tools used allow to objectively quantify drought threatening in a thorough multivariate perspective, which involves distributional analysis, frequency analysis (return periods) and hazard analysis (failure probabilities).https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/10/2848low-flowhazard assessmentreturn periodfailure probabilitycopulaÇoruh basin |
| spellingShingle | Fatih Tosunoğlu Gianfausto Salvadori Muhammet Yilmaz Multivariate Assessment of Low-Flow Hazards via Copulas: The Case Study of the Çoruh Basin (Turkey) Water low-flow hazard assessment return period failure probability copula Çoruh basin |
| title | Multivariate Assessment of Low-Flow Hazards via Copulas: The Case Study of the Çoruh Basin (Turkey) |
| title_full | Multivariate Assessment of Low-Flow Hazards via Copulas: The Case Study of the Çoruh Basin (Turkey) |
| title_fullStr | Multivariate Assessment of Low-Flow Hazards via Copulas: The Case Study of the Çoruh Basin (Turkey) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multivariate Assessment of Low-Flow Hazards via Copulas: The Case Study of the Çoruh Basin (Turkey) |
| title_short | Multivariate Assessment of Low-Flow Hazards via Copulas: The Case Study of the Çoruh Basin (Turkey) |
| title_sort | multivariate assessment of low flow hazards via copulas the case study of the coruh basin turkey |
| topic | low-flow hazard assessment return period failure probability copula Çoruh basin |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/10/2848 |
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