The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case
<p>The “1809 eruption” is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. Even though the eruption ranks as the third largest since 1500 with a sulfur emission strength estimated to be 2 times that of the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, not much is known of it f...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2021-07-01
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| Series: | Climate of the Past |
| Online Access: | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/1455/2021/cp-17-1455-2021.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819127716312514560 |
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| author | C. Timmreck M. Toohey D. Zanchettin S. Brönnimann E. Lundstad R. Wilson |
| author_facet | C. Timmreck M. Toohey D. Zanchettin S. Brönnimann E. Lundstad R. Wilson |
| author_sort | C. Timmreck |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The “1809 eruption” is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. Even though the eruption ranks as the third largest since 1500 with a sulfur emission strength estimated to be 2 times that of the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, not much is known of it from historic sources. Based on a compilation of instrumental and reconstructed temperature time series, we show here that tropical temperatures show a significant drop in response to the <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 1809 eruption that is similar to that produced by the Mt. Tambora eruption in 1815, while the response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) boreal summer temperature is spatially heterogeneous. We test the sensitivity of the climate response simulated by the MPI Earth system model to a range of volcanic forcing estimates constructed using estimated volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections (VSSIs) and uncertainties from ice-core records. Three of the forcing reconstructions represent a tropical eruption with an approximately symmetric hemispheric aerosol spread but different forcing magnitudes, while a fourth reflects a hemispherically asymmetric scenario without volcanic forcing in the NH extratropics. Observed and reconstructed post-volcanic surface NH summer temperature anomalies lie within the range of all the scenario simulations. Therefore, assuming the model climate sensitivity is correct, the VSSI estimate is accurate within the uncertainty bounds. Comparison of observed and simulated tropical temperature anomalies suggests that the most likely VSSI for the 1809 eruption would be somewhere between 12 and 19 Tg of sulfur. Model results show that NH large-scale climate modes are sensitive to both volcanic forcing strength and its spatial structure. While spatial correlations between the N-TREND NH temperature reconstruction and the model simulations are weak in terms of the ensemble-mean model results, individual model simulations show good correlation over North America and Europe, suggesting the spatial heterogeneity of the 1810 cooling could be due to internal climate variability.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T08:16:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-583d32a5a74940f0a603ed4421bc5863 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1814-9324 1814-9332 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T08:16:21Z |
| publishDate | 2021-07-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate of the Past |
| spelling | doaj.art-583d32a5a74940f0a603ed4421bc58632022-12-21T18:32:53ZengCopernicus PublicationsClimate of the Past1814-93241814-93322021-07-01171455148210.5194/cp-17-1455-2021The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold caseC. Timmreck0M. Toohey1D. Zanchettin2S. Brönnimann3E. Lundstad4R. Wilson5The Atmosphere in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, GermanyDepartment of Physics and Engineering Physics, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, CanadaDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Mestre, ItalyInstitute of Geography Climatology and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, SwitzerlandInstitute of Geography Climatology and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, SwitzerlandSchool of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, United Kingdom<p>The “1809 eruption” is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. Even though the eruption ranks as the third largest since 1500 with a sulfur emission strength estimated to be 2 times that of the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, not much is known of it from historic sources. Based on a compilation of instrumental and reconstructed temperature time series, we show here that tropical temperatures show a significant drop in response to the <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 1809 eruption that is similar to that produced by the Mt. Tambora eruption in 1815, while the response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) boreal summer temperature is spatially heterogeneous. We test the sensitivity of the climate response simulated by the MPI Earth system model to a range of volcanic forcing estimates constructed using estimated volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections (VSSIs) and uncertainties from ice-core records. Three of the forcing reconstructions represent a tropical eruption with an approximately symmetric hemispheric aerosol spread but different forcing magnitudes, while a fourth reflects a hemispherically asymmetric scenario without volcanic forcing in the NH extratropics. Observed and reconstructed post-volcanic surface NH summer temperature anomalies lie within the range of all the scenario simulations. Therefore, assuming the model climate sensitivity is correct, the VSSI estimate is accurate within the uncertainty bounds. Comparison of observed and simulated tropical temperature anomalies suggests that the most likely VSSI for the 1809 eruption would be somewhere between 12 and 19 Tg of sulfur. Model results show that NH large-scale climate modes are sensitive to both volcanic forcing strength and its spatial structure. While spatial correlations between the N-TREND NH temperature reconstruction and the model simulations are weak in terms of the ensemble-mean model results, individual model simulations show good correlation over North America and Europe, suggesting the spatial heterogeneity of the 1810 cooling could be due to internal climate variability.</p>https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/1455/2021/cp-17-1455-2021.pdf |
| spellingShingle | C. Timmreck M. Toohey D. Zanchettin S. Brönnimann E. Lundstad R. Wilson The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case Climate of the Past |
| title | The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case |
| title_full | The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case |
| title_fullStr | The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case |
| title_full_unstemmed | The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case |
| title_short | The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case |
| title_sort | unidentified eruption of 1809 a climatic cold case |
| url | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/1455/2021/cp-17-1455-2021.pdf |
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