The future of taxation in changing labour markets
This paper provides a first assessment of the fiscal and distributional consequences of the ongoing structural changes in the labour markets of EU member states, mostly driven by technological progress and ageing. The Cedefop 2020 Skills forecast (including the effects of COVID-19), population proje...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Institute of Public Finance
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Public Sector Economics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://www.pse-journal.hr/upload/files/pse/2023/4/7.pdf
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| _version_ | 1797389543629914112 |
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| author | Michael Christl Ilias Livanos Andrea Papini |
| author_facet | Michael Christl Ilias Livanos Andrea Papini |
| author_sort | Michael Christl |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper provides a first assessment of the fiscal and distributional consequences of the ongoing structural changes in the labour markets of EU member states, mostly driven by technological progress and ageing. The Cedefop 2020 Skills forecast (including the effects of COVID-19), population projections and the forecast on pension expenditures depict a scenario of an ageing population, an inverted U-shaped unemployment trend and potentially polarising labour markets in the EU till 2030, the latter mostly driven by a surge in high-skill occupations. We make use of the microsimulation model EUROMOD and reweighting techniques to analyse the fiscal and distributional impacts of these trends under a no-policy-change assumption. The results suggest that the macro trends will increase pressure on government budgets, however, we also show that the current tax-benefit systems have the capacity to counterbalance the increases in income inequality and poverty risks triggered by the expected future labour markets developments. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T22:57:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5846833b5f8c4ddcaae53c35651263f2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2459-8860 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T22:57:26Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Institute of Public Finance |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Public Sector Economics |
| spelling | doaj.art-5846833b5f8c4ddcaae53c35651263f22023-12-16T06:02:22ZengInstitute of Public FinancePublic Sector Economics2459-88602023-12-0147452155410.3326/pse.47.4.711425The future of taxation in changing labour marketsMichael Christl0Ilias Livanos1Andrea Papini2 European Commission, Joint Research Centre and Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Sevilla, Spain European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP), Thessaloniki (Pylea), Greece European Commission, Joint Research Centre and Loyola University Andalusia, Sevilla, Spain This paper provides a first assessment of the fiscal and distributional consequences of the ongoing structural changes in the labour markets of EU member states, mostly driven by technological progress and ageing. The Cedefop 2020 Skills forecast (including the effects of COVID-19), population projections and the forecast on pension expenditures depict a scenario of an ageing population, an inverted U-shaped unemployment trend and potentially polarising labour markets in the EU till 2030, the latter mostly driven by a surge in high-skill occupations. We make use of the microsimulation model EUROMOD and reweighting techniques to analyse the fiscal and distributional impacts of these trends under a no-policy-change assumption. The results suggest that the macro trends will increase pressure on government budgets, however, we also show that the current tax-benefit systems have the capacity to counterbalance the increases in income inequality and poverty risks triggered by the expected future labour markets developments. http://www.pse-journal.hr/upload/files/pse/2023/4/7.pdf income distribution; budget; deficit; job polarisation; population ageing; covid-19 |
| spellingShingle | Michael Christl Ilias Livanos Andrea Papini The future of taxation in changing labour markets Public Sector Economics income distribution; budget; deficit; job polarisation; population ageing; covid-19 |
| title | The future of taxation in changing labour markets |
| title_full | The future of taxation in changing labour markets |
| title_fullStr | The future of taxation in changing labour markets |
| title_full_unstemmed | The future of taxation in changing labour markets |
| title_short | The future of taxation in changing labour markets |
| title_sort | future of taxation in changing labour markets |
| topic | income distribution; budget; deficit; job polarisation; population ageing; covid-19 |
| url |
http://www.pse-journal.hr/upload/files/pse/2023/4/7.pdf
|
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