Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict High-Risk Patients for Coronary Heart Disease in Snorers With Uncontrolled Hypertension
PurposeSnoring or obstructive sleep apnea, with or without uncontrolled hypertension, is common and significantly increases the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict and identify high-risk patients for CHD among snorers...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2022.777946/full |
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| author | Meng-hui Wang Meng-hui Wang Meng-hui Wang Mulalibieke Heizhati Mulalibieke Heizhati Mulalibieke Heizhati Nan-fang Li Nan-fang Li Nan-fang Li Xiao-guang Yao Xiao-guang Yao Xiao-guang Yao Qin Luo Qin Luo Qin Luo Meng-yue Lin Meng-yue Lin Jing Hong Jing Hong Jing Hong Yue Ma Yue Ma Run Wang Run Wang Le Sun Le Sun Le Sun Ying-li Ren Ying-li Ren Ying-li Ren Na Yue Na Yue Na Yue |
| author_facet | Meng-hui Wang Meng-hui Wang Meng-hui Wang Mulalibieke Heizhati Mulalibieke Heizhati Mulalibieke Heizhati Nan-fang Li Nan-fang Li Nan-fang Li Xiao-guang Yao Xiao-guang Yao Xiao-guang Yao Qin Luo Qin Luo Qin Luo Meng-yue Lin Meng-yue Lin Jing Hong Jing Hong Jing Hong Yue Ma Yue Ma Run Wang Run Wang Le Sun Le Sun Le Sun Ying-li Ren Ying-li Ren Ying-li Ren Na Yue Na Yue Na Yue |
| author_sort | Meng-hui Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | PurposeSnoring or obstructive sleep apnea, with or without uncontrolled hypertension, is common and significantly increases the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict and identify high-risk patients for CHD among snorers with uncontrolled hypertension.MethodsRecords from 1,822 snorers with uncontrolled hypertension were randomly divided into a training set (n = 1,275, 70%) and validation set (n = 547, 30%). Predictors for CHD were extracted to construct a nomogram model based on multivariate Cox regression analysis. We performed a single-split verification and 1,000 bootstraps resampling internal validation to assess the discrimination and consistency of the prediction model using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Based on the linear predictors, a risk classifier for CHD could be set.ResultsAge, waist circumference (WC), and high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C and LDL-C) were extracted as the predictors to generate this nomogram model. The C-index was 0.720 (95% confidence interval 0.663–0.777) in the derivation cohort and 0.703 (0.630–0.776) in the validation cohort. The AUC was 0.757 (0.626–0.887), 0.739 (0.647–0.831), and 0.732 (0.665–0.799) in the training set and 0.689 (0.542–0.837), 0.701 (0.606–0.796), and 0.712 (0.615–0.808) in the validation set at 3, 5, and 8 years, respectively. The calibration plots showed acceptable consistency between the probability of CHD-free survival and the observed CHD-free survival in the training and validation sets. A total of more than 134 points in the nomogram can be used in the identification of high-risk patients for CHD among snorers with uncontrolled hypertension.ConclusionWe developed a CHD risk prediction model in snorers with uncontrolled hypertension, which includes age, WC, HDL-C, and LDL-C, and can help clinicians with early and quick identification of patients with a high risk for CHD. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T17:09:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-585b611954cd4602bc25f437df5d4e65 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2297-055X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T17:09:09Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-585b611954cd4602bc25f437df5d4e652022-12-22T00:17:55ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine2297-055X2022-04-01910.3389/fcvm.2022.777946777946Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict High-Risk Patients for Coronary Heart Disease in Snorers With Uncontrolled HypertensionMeng-hui Wang0Meng-hui Wang1Meng-hui Wang2Mulalibieke Heizhati3Mulalibieke Heizhati4Mulalibieke Heizhati5Nan-fang Li6Nan-fang Li7Nan-fang Li8Xiao-guang Yao9Xiao-guang Yao10Xiao-guang Yao11Qin Luo12Qin Luo13Qin Luo14Meng-yue Lin15Meng-yue Lin16Jing Hong17Jing Hong18Jing Hong19Yue Ma20Yue Ma21Run Wang22Run Wang23Le Sun24Le Sun25Le Sun26Ying-li Ren27Ying-li Ren28Ying-li Ren29Na Yue30Na Yue31Na Yue32Hypertension Center of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Ürümqi, ChinaXinjiang Hypertension Institute, Ürümqi, ChinaNational Health Committee Key Laboratory of Hypertension Clinical Research, Ürümqi, ChinaHypertension Center of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Ürümqi, ChinaXinjiang Hypertension Institute, Ürümqi, ChinaNational Health Committee Key Laboratory of Hypertension Clinical Research, Ürümqi, ChinaHypertension Center of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Ürümqi, ChinaXinjiang Hypertension Institute, Ürümqi, ChinaNational Health Committee Key Laboratory of Hypertension Clinical Research, Ürümqi, ChinaHypertension Center of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Ürümqi, ChinaXinjiang Hypertension Institute, Ürümqi, ChinaNational Health Committee Key Laboratory of Hypertension Clinical Research, Ürümqi, ChinaHypertension Center of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Ürümqi, ChinaXinjiang Hypertension Institute, Ürümqi, ChinaNational Health Committee Key Laboratory of Hypertension Clinical Research, Ürümqi, ChinaKey Laboratory of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region “Hypertension Research Laboratory”, Ürümqi, ChinaXinjiang Clinical Medical Research Center for Hypertension (Cardio-Cerebrovascular) Diseases, Ürümqi, ChinaHypertension Center of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Ürümqi, ChinaXinjiang Hypertension Institute, Ürümqi, ChinaNational Health Committee Key Laboratory of Hypertension Clinical Research, Ürümqi, ChinaKey Laboratory of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region “Hypertension Research Laboratory”, Ürümqi, ChinaXinjiang Clinical Medical Research Center for Hypertension (Cardio-Cerebrovascular) Diseases, Ürümqi, ChinaKey Laboratory of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region “Hypertension Research Laboratory”, Ürümqi, ChinaXinjiang Clinical Medical Research Center for Hypertension (Cardio-Cerebrovascular) Diseases, Ürümqi, ChinaHypertension Center of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Ürümqi, ChinaXinjiang Hypertension Institute, Ürümqi, ChinaNational Health Committee Key Laboratory of Hypertension Clinical Research, Ürümqi, ChinaHypertension Center of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Ürümqi, ChinaXinjiang Hypertension Institute, Ürümqi, ChinaNational Health Committee Key Laboratory of Hypertension Clinical Research, Ürümqi, ChinaHypertension Center of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Ürümqi, ChinaXinjiang Hypertension Institute, Ürümqi, ChinaNational Health Committee Key Laboratory of Hypertension Clinical Research, Ürümqi, ChinaPurposeSnoring or obstructive sleep apnea, with or without uncontrolled hypertension, is common and significantly increases the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict and identify high-risk patients for CHD among snorers with uncontrolled hypertension.MethodsRecords from 1,822 snorers with uncontrolled hypertension were randomly divided into a training set (n = 1,275, 70%) and validation set (n = 547, 30%). Predictors for CHD were extracted to construct a nomogram model based on multivariate Cox regression analysis. We performed a single-split verification and 1,000 bootstraps resampling internal validation to assess the discrimination and consistency of the prediction model using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Based on the linear predictors, a risk classifier for CHD could be set.ResultsAge, waist circumference (WC), and high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C and LDL-C) were extracted as the predictors to generate this nomogram model. The C-index was 0.720 (95% confidence interval 0.663–0.777) in the derivation cohort and 0.703 (0.630–0.776) in the validation cohort. The AUC was 0.757 (0.626–0.887), 0.739 (0.647–0.831), and 0.732 (0.665–0.799) in the training set and 0.689 (0.542–0.837), 0.701 (0.606–0.796), and 0.712 (0.615–0.808) in the validation set at 3, 5, and 8 years, respectively. The calibration plots showed acceptable consistency between the probability of CHD-free survival and the observed CHD-free survival in the training and validation sets. A total of more than 134 points in the nomogram can be used in the identification of high-risk patients for CHD among snorers with uncontrolled hypertension.ConclusionWe developed a CHD risk prediction model in snorers with uncontrolled hypertension, which includes age, WC, HDL-C, and LDL-C, and can help clinicians with early and quick identification of patients with a high risk for CHD.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2022.777946/fullcoronary heart diseasehypertensionsnorerprognosisnomogram |
| spellingShingle | Meng-hui Wang Meng-hui Wang Meng-hui Wang Mulalibieke Heizhati Mulalibieke Heizhati Mulalibieke Heizhati Nan-fang Li Nan-fang Li Nan-fang Li Xiao-guang Yao Xiao-guang Yao Xiao-guang Yao Qin Luo Qin Luo Qin Luo Meng-yue Lin Meng-yue Lin Jing Hong Jing Hong Jing Hong Yue Ma Yue Ma Run Wang Run Wang Le Sun Le Sun Le Sun Ying-li Ren Ying-li Ren Ying-li Ren Na Yue Na Yue Na Yue Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict High-Risk Patients for Coronary Heart Disease in Snorers With Uncontrolled Hypertension Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine coronary heart disease hypertension snorer prognosis nomogram |
| title | Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict High-Risk Patients for Coronary Heart Disease in Snorers With Uncontrolled Hypertension |
| title_full | Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict High-Risk Patients for Coronary Heart Disease in Snorers With Uncontrolled Hypertension |
| title_fullStr | Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict High-Risk Patients for Coronary Heart Disease in Snorers With Uncontrolled Hypertension |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict High-Risk Patients for Coronary Heart Disease in Snorers With Uncontrolled Hypertension |
| title_short | Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict High-Risk Patients for Coronary Heart Disease in Snorers With Uncontrolled Hypertension |
| title_sort | development and validation of a prognostic model to predict high risk patients for coronary heart disease in snorers with uncontrolled hypertension |
| topic | coronary heart disease hypertension snorer prognosis nomogram |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2022.777946/full |
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