Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach
<b>Background</b>: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice lif...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
2017-03-01
|
| Series: | Demographic Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol36/34/ |
| _version_ | 1828416719682535424 |
|---|---|
| author | Anthony Medford |
| author_facet | Anthony Medford |
| author_sort | Anthony Medford |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <b>Background</b>: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. <b>Objective</b>: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. <b>Methods</b>: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. <b>Conclusions</b>: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain probability estimates of best-practice life expectancy levels or make projections about future maximum life expectancy. <b>Comments</b>: Our findings may be useful for policymakers and insurance/pension analysts who would like to obtain estimates and probabilities of future maximum life expectancies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T14:07:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-588f22d709394576bc4d722ccc35b947 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1435-9871 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T14:07:28Z |
| publishDate | 2017-03-01 |
| publisher | Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Demographic Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-588f22d709394576bc4d722ccc35b9472022-12-22T01:45:36ZengMax Planck Institute for Demographic ResearchDemographic Research1435-98712017-03-01363410.4054/DemRes.2017.36.342937Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approachAnthony Medford0Max Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging<b>Background</b>: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. <b>Objective</b>: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. <b>Methods</b>: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. <b>Conclusions</b>: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain probability estimates of best-practice life expectancy levels or make projections about future maximum life expectancy. <b>Comments</b>: Our findings may be useful for policymakers and insurance/pension analysts who would like to obtain estimates and probabilities of future maximum life expectancies.https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol36/34/best-practice life expectancyextreme value theorygeneralised extreme value distributioninnovations processlife expectancyprojecting best-practice life expectancy |
| spellingShingle | Anthony Medford Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach Demographic Research best-practice life expectancy extreme value theory generalised extreme value distribution innovations process life expectancy projecting best-practice life expectancy |
| title | Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach |
| title_full | Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach |
| title_fullStr | Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach |
| title_short | Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach |
| title_sort | best practice life expectancy an extreme value approach |
| topic | best-practice life expectancy extreme value theory generalised extreme value distribution innovations process life expectancy projecting best-practice life expectancy |
| url | https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol36/34/ |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT anthonymedford bestpracticelifeexpectancyanextremevalueapproach |