PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment
Many applications in the evaluation of climate impacts and environmental policy require detailed spatio-temporal projections of future climate. To capture feedbacks from impacted natural or socio-economic systems requires interactive two-way coupling, but this is generally computationally infeasible...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2014-02-01
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| Series: | Geoscientific Model Development |
| Online Access: | http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/7/433/2014/gmd-7-433-2014.pdf |
| _version_ | 1828410358880010240 |
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| author | P. B. Holden N. R. Edwards P. H. Garthwaite K. Fraedrich F. Lunkeit E. Kirk M. Labriet A. Kanudia F. Babonneau |
| author_facet | P. B. Holden N. R. Edwards P. H. Garthwaite K. Fraedrich F. Lunkeit E. Kirk M. Labriet A. Kanudia F. Babonneau |
| author_sort | P. B. Holden |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Many applications in the evaluation of climate impacts and environmental
policy require detailed spatio-temporal projections of future climate. To
capture feedbacks from impacted natural or socio-economic systems requires
interactive two-way coupling, but this is generally computationally infeasible
with even moderately complex general circulation models (GCMs). Dimension
reduction using emulation is one solution to this problem, demonstrated here
with the GCM PLASIM-ENTS (Planet Simulator coupled with the efficient
numerical terrestrial scheme). Our approach generates temporally evolving spatial
patterns of climate variables, considering multiple modes of variability in
order to capture non-linear feedbacks. The emulator provides a 188-member
ensemble of decadally and spatially resolved (~ 5° resolution)
seasonal climate data in response to an arbitrary future CO<sub>2</sub>
concentration and non-CO<sub>2</sub> radiative forcing scenario. We present the
PLASIM-ENTS coupled model, the construction of its emulator from an ensemble
of transient future simulations, an application of the emulator methodology
to produce heating and cooling degree-day projections, the validation of the
simulator (with respect to empirical data) and the validation of the emulator
(with respect to high-complexity models). We also demonstrate the application
to estimates of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T12:09:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-58be33c9ed7041fd8a265d6288cc328b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1991-959X 1991-9603 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T12:09:26Z |
| publishDate | 2014-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geoscientific Model Development |
| spelling | doaj.art-58be33c9ed7041fd8a265d6288cc328b2022-12-22T01:49:24ZengCopernicus PublicationsGeoscientific Model Development1991-959X1991-96032014-02-017143345110.5194/gmd-7-433-2014PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessmentP. B. Holden0N. R. Edwards1P. H. Garthwaite2K. Fraedrich3F. Lunkeit4E. Kirk5M. Labriet6A. Kanudia7F. Babonneau8Environment, Earth and Ecosystems, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UKEnvironment, Earth and Ecosystems, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UKMathematics and Statistics, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UKMax Planck Institute of Meteorology, KlimaCampus, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, GermanyMeteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Bundesstraße 55, 20146 Hamburg, GermanyMeteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Bundesstraße 55, 20146 Hamburg, GermanyEneris Environment Energy Consultants s.l., c/Duque de Alba 15, 3–6, 28012 Madrid, SpainEneris Environment Energy Consultants s.l., c/Duque de Alba 15, 3–6, 28012 Madrid, SpainORDECSYS, Place de l'Etrier 4, 1224 Chêne-Bougeries, SwitzerlandMany applications in the evaluation of climate impacts and environmental policy require detailed spatio-temporal projections of future climate. To capture feedbacks from impacted natural or socio-economic systems requires interactive two-way coupling, but this is generally computationally infeasible with even moderately complex general circulation models (GCMs). Dimension reduction using emulation is one solution to this problem, demonstrated here with the GCM PLASIM-ENTS (Planet Simulator coupled with the efficient numerical terrestrial scheme). Our approach generates temporally evolving spatial patterns of climate variables, considering multiple modes of variability in order to capture non-linear feedbacks. The emulator provides a 188-member ensemble of decadally and spatially resolved (~ 5° resolution) seasonal climate data in response to an arbitrary future CO<sub>2</sub> concentration and non-CO<sub>2</sub> radiative forcing scenario. We present the PLASIM-ENTS coupled model, the construction of its emulator from an ensemble of transient future simulations, an application of the emulator methodology to produce heating and cooling degree-day projections, the validation of the simulator (with respect to empirical data) and the validation of the emulator (with respect to high-complexity models). We also demonstrate the application to estimates of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty.http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/7/433/2014/gmd-7-433-2014.pdf |
| spellingShingle | P. B. Holden N. R. Edwards P. H. Garthwaite K. Fraedrich F. Lunkeit E. Kirk M. Labriet A. Kanudia F. Babonneau PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment Geoscientific Model Development |
| title | PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment |
| title_full | PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment |
| title_fullStr | PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment |
| title_full_unstemmed | PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment |
| title_short | PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment |
| title_sort | plasim entsem v1 0 a spatio temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment |
| url | http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/7/433/2014/gmd-7-433-2014.pdf |
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