| Summary: | Abstract Groundwater, essential for water availability, sanitation and achieving Sustainable Development Goals, is shaped by climate dynamics and complex hydrogeological structures. Here, we provide a time-series of groundwater recharge from 801 CE to the present day in the Tiber River Basin, Italy, using historical records and hydrological modelling. Groundwater drought occurred in 36% of Medieval Climatic Anomaly (801-1249) years, 12% of Little Ice Age (1250-1849) years and 26% of Modern Warming Period (1850-2020) years. Importantly, a predominant warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, aligned with solar maxima, coincided with prolonged dry spells during both the medieval and modern periods, inducing a reduction in recharge rates due to hydrological memory effects. This study enhances understanding of climate-water interactions, offering a comprehensive view of groundwater dynamics in central Mediterranean and highlighting the importance of the past for sustainable future strategies. Leveraging this understanding can address water scarcity and enhance basin resilience.
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