Expected Changes of Montenegrin Climate, Impact on the Establishment and Spread of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (<i>Aedes albopictus</i>), and Validation of the Model and Model-Based Field Sampling
<i>Aedes albopictus</i> has become established in many parts of Europe since its introduction at the end of the 20th century. It can vector a range of arboviruses, of which Chikungunya and Dengue are most significant for Europe. An analysis of the expected climate change and the related...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2018-11-01
|
| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/11/453 |
| _version_ | 1818953280890339328 |
|---|---|
| author | Mina Petrić Branislava Lalić Igor Pajović Slavica Micev Vladimir Đurđević Dušan Petrić |
| author_facet | Mina Petrić Branislava Lalić Igor Pajović Slavica Micev Vladimir Đurđević Dušan Petrić |
| author_sort | Mina Petrić |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <i>Aedes albopictus</i> has become established in many parts of Europe since its introduction at the end of the 20th century. It can vector a range of arboviruses, of which Chikungunya and Dengue are most significant for Europe. An analysis of the expected climate change and the related shift in Köppen zones for Montenegro and impact on the establishment of <i>Ae. albopictus</i> was conducted. Outputs of a mechanistic <i>Aedes albopictus</i> model were validated by 2245 presence/absence records collected from 237 different sites between 2001 and 2014. Finally, model-based sampling was designed and performed at 48 sites in 2015, in a previously unexplored northern part of Montenegro, and results were validated. The Eta Belgrade University (EBU)-Princeton Ocean Model (POM) regional climate model was used with the A2 emissions scenario for the 2001⁻2030 and 2071⁻2100 integration periods. The results point to a significant increase in suitability for the mosquito and a vertical shift to higher altitudes by the end of the century. The model showed excellent results with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.94. This study provides a tool for prioritizing surveillance efforts (model-based surveillance), especially when resources are limited. This is the first published analysis of Climate Change that incorporates observations from the national synoptic grid and the subsequent impact on <i>Ae. albopictus</i> in Montenegro. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T10:03:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-58f70c46482240c6b475075d109a1943 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T10:03:46Z |
| publishDate | 2018-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-58f70c46482240c6b475075d109a19432022-12-21T19:44:17ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332018-11-0191145310.3390/atmos9110453atmos9110453Expected Changes of Montenegrin Climate, Impact on the Establishment and Spread of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (<i>Aedes albopictus</i>), and Validation of the Model and Model-Based Field SamplingMina Petrić0Branislava Lalić1Igor Pajović2Slavica Micev3Vladimir Đurđević4Dušan Petrić5Department of Physics and Astronomy, Faculty of Sciences, University of Gent; 9000 Gent, BelgiumDepartment of Field and Vegetable Crops, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaBiotechnical Faculty, University of Montenegro, 81000 Podgorica, MontenegroInstitute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology, 81000 Podgorica, MontenegroInstitute of Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, University of Belgrade, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaLaboratory of Medical and Veterinary Entomology, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia<i>Aedes albopictus</i> has become established in many parts of Europe since its introduction at the end of the 20th century. It can vector a range of arboviruses, of which Chikungunya and Dengue are most significant for Europe. An analysis of the expected climate change and the related shift in Köppen zones for Montenegro and impact on the establishment of <i>Ae. albopictus</i> was conducted. Outputs of a mechanistic <i>Aedes albopictus</i> model were validated by 2245 presence/absence records collected from 237 different sites between 2001 and 2014. Finally, model-based sampling was designed and performed at 48 sites in 2015, in a previously unexplored northern part of Montenegro, and results were validated. The Eta Belgrade University (EBU)-Princeton Ocean Model (POM) regional climate model was used with the A2 emissions scenario for the 2001⁻2030 and 2071⁻2100 integration periods. The results point to a significant increase in suitability for the mosquito and a vertical shift to higher altitudes by the end of the century. The model showed excellent results with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.94. This study provides a tool for prioritizing surveillance efforts (model-based surveillance), especially when resources are limited. This is the first published analysis of Climate Change that incorporates observations from the national synoptic grid and the subsequent impact on <i>Ae. albopictus</i> in Montenegro.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/11/453Climate change<i>Aedes albopictus</i>Vector distribution modelRegional analysisMCDAKöppen climate classification |
| spellingShingle | Mina Petrić Branislava Lalić Igor Pajović Slavica Micev Vladimir Đurđević Dušan Petrić Expected Changes of Montenegrin Climate, Impact on the Establishment and Spread of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (<i>Aedes albopictus</i>), and Validation of the Model and Model-Based Field Sampling Atmosphere Climate change <i>Aedes albopictus</i> Vector distribution model Regional analysis MCDA Köppen climate classification |
| title | Expected Changes of Montenegrin Climate, Impact on the Establishment and Spread of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (<i>Aedes albopictus</i>), and Validation of the Model and Model-Based Field Sampling |
| title_full | Expected Changes of Montenegrin Climate, Impact on the Establishment and Spread of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (<i>Aedes albopictus</i>), and Validation of the Model and Model-Based Field Sampling |
| title_fullStr | Expected Changes of Montenegrin Climate, Impact on the Establishment and Spread of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (<i>Aedes albopictus</i>), and Validation of the Model and Model-Based Field Sampling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Expected Changes of Montenegrin Climate, Impact on the Establishment and Spread of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (<i>Aedes albopictus</i>), and Validation of the Model and Model-Based Field Sampling |
| title_short | Expected Changes of Montenegrin Climate, Impact on the Establishment and Spread of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (<i>Aedes albopictus</i>), and Validation of the Model and Model-Based Field Sampling |
| title_sort | expected changes of montenegrin climate impact on the establishment and spread of the asian tiger mosquito i aedes albopictus i and validation of the model and model based field sampling |
| topic | Climate change <i>Aedes albopictus</i> Vector distribution model Regional analysis MCDA Köppen climate classification |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/11/453 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT minapetric expectedchangesofmontenegrinclimateimpactontheestablishmentandspreadoftheasiantigermosquitoiaedesalbopictusiandvalidationofthemodelandmodelbasedfieldsampling AT branislavalalic expectedchangesofmontenegrinclimateimpactontheestablishmentandspreadoftheasiantigermosquitoiaedesalbopictusiandvalidationofthemodelandmodelbasedfieldsampling AT igorpajovic expectedchangesofmontenegrinclimateimpactontheestablishmentandspreadoftheasiantigermosquitoiaedesalbopictusiandvalidationofthemodelandmodelbasedfieldsampling AT slavicamicev expectedchangesofmontenegrinclimateimpactontheestablishmentandspreadoftheasiantigermosquitoiaedesalbopictusiandvalidationofthemodelandmodelbasedfieldsampling AT vladimirđurđevic expectedchangesofmontenegrinclimateimpactontheestablishmentandspreadoftheasiantigermosquitoiaedesalbopictusiandvalidationofthemodelandmodelbasedfieldsampling AT dusanpetric expectedchangesofmontenegrinclimateimpactontheestablishmentandspreadoftheasiantigermosquitoiaedesalbopictusiandvalidationofthemodelandmodelbasedfieldsampling |