Decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approach
<p>Flood frequency curves are usually highly uncertain since they are based on short data sets of measured discharges or weather conditions. To decrease the confidence intervals, an efficient bootstrap method is developed in this study. The Rhine river delta is considered as a case study. We u...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2019-08-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1895/2019/nhess-19-1895-2019.pdf |
| _version_ | 1831760370998444032 |
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| author | A. Bomers R. M. J. Schielen R. M. J. Schielen S. J. M. H. Hulscher |
| author_facet | A. Bomers R. M. J. Schielen R. M. J. Schielen S. J. M. H. Hulscher |
| author_sort | A. Bomers |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Flood frequency curves are usually highly uncertain since they are based on short data sets of measured discharges or weather conditions. To decrease the confidence intervals, an efficient bootstrap method is developed in this study. The Rhine river delta is considered as a case study. We use a hydraulic model to normalize historic flood events for anthropogenic and natural changes in the river system. As a result, the data set of measured discharges could be extended by approximately 600 years. The study shows that historic flood events decrease the confidence interval of the flood frequency curve significantly, specifically in the range of large floods. This even applies if the maximum discharges of these historic flood events are highly uncertain themselves.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T03:50:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-59576520963747c0bfaf9da1b0108c72 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T03:50:46Z |
| publishDate | 2019-08-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-59576520963747c0bfaf9da1b0108c722022-12-21T18:40:01ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812019-08-01191895190810.5194/nhess-19-1895-2019Decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approachA. Bomers0R. M. J. Schielen1R. M. J. Schielen2S. J. M. H. Hulscher3Department of Water Engineering and Management, University of Twente, Dienstweg 1, Enschede, the NetherlandsDepartment of Water Engineering and Management, University of Twente, Dienstweg 1, Enschede, the NetherlandsMinistry of Infrastructure and Water Management (Rijkswaterstaat), Arnhem, the NetherlandsDepartment of Water Engineering and Management, University of Twente, Dienstweg 1, Enschede, the Netherlands<p>Flood frequency curves are usually highly uncertain since they are based on short data sets of measured discharges or weather conditions. To decrease the confidence intervals, an efficient bootstrap method is developed in this study. The Rhine river delta is considered as a case study. We use a hydraulic model to normalize historic flood events for anthropogenic and natural changes in the river system. As a result, the data set of measured discharges could be extended by approximately 600 years. The study shows that historic flood events decrease the confidence interval of the flood frequency curve significantly, specifically in the range of large floods. This even applies if the maximum discharges of these historic flood events are highly uncertain themselves.</p>https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1895/2019/nhess-19-1895-2019.pdf |
| spellingShingle | A. Bomers R. M. J. Schielen R. M. J. Schielen S. J. M. H. Hulscher Decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approach Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approach |
| title_full | Decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approach |
| title_fullStr | Decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approach |
| title_short | Decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approach |
| title_sort | decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approach |
| url | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1895/2019/nhess-19-1895-2019.pdf |
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