Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change
Abstract Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof‐of‐concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present‐day and climate‐in...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2017-05-01
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| Series: | GeoHealth |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GH000055 |
| _version_ | 1818266466444640256 |
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| author | Susan C. Anenberg Kate R. Weinberger Henry Roman James E. Neumann Allison Crimmins Neal Fann Jeremy Martinich Patrick L. Kinney |
| author_facet | Susan C. Anenberg Kate R. Weinberger Henry Roman James E. Neumann Allison Crimmins Neal Fann Jeremy Martinich Patrick L. Kinney |
| author_sort | Susan C. Anenberg |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof‐of‐concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present‐day and climate‐induced changes in oak pollen. We estimated oak pollen season length for moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts associated with 1994–2010 average oak pollen concentrations and simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, driven by epidemiologically derived concentration‐response relationships. Oak pollen was associated with 21,200 (95% confidence interval, 10,000–35,200) asthma ED visits in the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest U.S. in 2010, with damages valued at $10.4 million. Nearly 70% of these occurred among children age <18 years. Severe climate change could increase oak pollen season length and associated asthma ED visits by 5% and 10% on average in 2050 and 2090, with a marginal net present value through 2090 of $10.4 million (additional to the baseline value of $346.2 million). Moderate versus severe climate change could avoid >50% of the additional oak pollen‐related asthma ED visits in 2090. Despite several key uncertainties and limitations, these results suggest that aeroallergens pose a substantial U.S. public health burden, that climate change could increase U.S. allergic disease incidence, and that mitigating climate change may have benefits from avoided pollen‐related health impacts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T20:07:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-597a81fc49d443379e2095779926f510 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2471-1403 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T20:07:09Z |
| publishDate | 2017-05-01 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | GeoHealth |
| spelling | doaj.art-597a81fc49d443379e2095779926f5102022-12-22T00:13:36ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)GeoHealth2471-14032017-05-0113809210.1002/2017GH000055Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate changeSusan C. Anenberg0Kate R. Weinberger1Henry Roman2James E. Neumann3Allison Crimmins4Neal Fann5Jeremy Martinich6Patrick L. Kinney7Environmental Health Analytics, LLC Washington District of Columbia USAInstitute at Brown for Environment & Society Brown University Providence Rhode Island USAIndustrial Economics, Inc. Cambridge Massachusetts USAIndustrial Economics, Inc. Cambridge Massachusetts USAOffice of Air and Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington District of Columbia USAOffice of Air and Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington District of Columbia USAOffice of Air and Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington District of Columbia USASchool of Public Health Boston University Boston Massachusetts USAAbstract Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof‐of‐concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present‐day and climate‐induced changes in oak pollen. We estimated oak pollen season length for moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts associated with 1994–2010 average oak pollen concentrations and simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, driven by epidemiologically derived concentration‐response relationships. Oak pollen was associated with 21,200 (95% confidence interval, 10,000–35,200) asthma ED visits in the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest U.S. in 2010, with damages valued at $10.4 million. Nearly 70% of these occurred among children age <18 years. Severe climate change could increase oak pollen season length and associated asthma ED visits by 5% and 10% on average in 2050 and 2090, with a marginal net present value through 2090 of $10.4 million (additional to the baseline value of $346.2 million). Moderate versus severe climate change could avoid >50% of the additional oak pollen‐related asthma ED visits in 2090. Despite several key uncertainties and limitations, these results suggest that aeroallergens pose a substantial U.S. public health burden, that climate change could increase U.S. allergic disease incidence, and that mitigating climate change may have benefits from avoided pollen‐related health impacts.https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GH000055climate changeaeroallergensasthma |
| spellingShingle | Susan C. Anenberg Kate R. Weinberger Henry Roman James E. Neumann Allison Crimmins Neal Fann Jeremy Martinich Patrick L. Kinney Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change GeoHealth climate change aeroallergens asthma |
| title | Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change |
| title_full | Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change |
| title_short | Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change |
| title_sort | impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the united states and potential influence of future climate change |
| topic | climate change aeroallergens asthma |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GH000055 |
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