Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE
The ReNovRisk-Cyclone program aimed at developing an observation network in the south-west Indian ocean (SWIO) in close synergy with the implementation of numerical tools to model and analyze the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the present and in a context of climate change. This paper addresse...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2021-05-01
|
| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/6/689 |
| _version_ | 1797532320680378368 |
|---|---|
| author | Christelle Barthe Olivier Bousquet Soline Bielli Pierre Tulet Joris Pianezze Marine Claeys Chia-Lun Tsai Callum Thompson François Bonnardot Fabrice Chauvin Julien Cattiaux Marie-Noëlle Bouin Vincent Amelie Guilhem Barruol Radiance Calmer Stéphane Ciccione Emmanuel Cordier Quoc-Phi Duong Jonathan Durand Frauke Fleischer-Dogley Romain Husson Edouard Lees Sylvie Malardel Nicolas Marquestaut Alberto Mavume Dominique Mékiès Alexis Mouche Navalona Manitriniana Ravoson Bruno Razafindradina Elisa Rindraharisaona Gregory Roberts Manvendra Singh Lova Zakariasy Jonas Zucule |
| author_facet | Christelle Barthe Olivier Bousquet Soline Bielli Pierre Tulet Joris Pianezze Marine Claeys Chia-Lun Tsai Callum Thompson François Bonnardot Fabrice Chauvin Julien Cattiaux Marie-Noëlle Bouin Vincent Amelie Guilhem Barruol Radiance Calmer Stéphane Ciccione Emmanuel Cordier Quoc-Phi Duong Jonathan Durand Frauke Fleischer-Dogley Romain Husson Edouard Lees Sylvie Malardel Nicolas Marquestaut Alberto Mavume Dominique Mékiès Alexis Mouche Navalona Manitriniana Ravoson Bruno Razafindradina Elisa Rindraharisaona Gregory Roberts Manvendra Singh Lova Zakariasy Jonas Zucule |
| author_sort | Christelle Barthe |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The ReNovRisk-Cyclone program aimed at developing an observation network in the south-west Indian ocean (SWIO) in close synergy with the implementation of numerical tools to model and analyze the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the present and in a context of climate change. This paper addresses the modeling part of the program. First, a unique coupled system to simulate TCs in the SWIO is developed. The ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling is considered along with a coherent coupling between sea surface state, wind field, aerosol, microphysics, and radiation. This coupled system is illustrated through several simulations of TCs: the impact of air–sea flux parameterizations on the evolution of TC Fantala is examined, the full coupling developed during the program is illustrated on TC Idai, and the potential of novel observations like space-borne synthetic aperture radar and sea turtles to validate the atmosphere and ocean models is presented with TC Herold. Secondly, the evolution of cyclonic activity in the SWIO during the second half of the 21st century is assessed. It was addressed both using climate simulation and through the implementation of a pseudo global warming method in the high-resolution coupled modeling platform. Our results suggest that the Mascarene Archipelago should experience an increase of TC related hazards in the medium term. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T10:57:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-59bd8ac646c04127a94efc3399977e77 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T10:57:28Z |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-59bd8ac646c04127a94efc3399977e772023-11-21T21:46:45ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332021-05-0112668910.3390/atmos12060689Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONEChristelle Barthe0Olivier Bousquet1Soline Bielli2Pierre Tulet3Joris Pianezze4Marine Claeys5Chia-Lun Tsai6Callum Thompson7François Bonnardot8Fabrice Chauvin9Julien Cattiaux10Marie-Noëlle Bouin11Vincent Amelie12Guilhem Barruol13Radiance Calmer14Stéphane Ciccione15Emmanuel Cordier16Quoc-Phi Duong17Jonathan Durand18Frauke Fleischer-Dogley19Romain Husson20Edouard Lees21Sylvie Malardel22Nicolas Marquestaut23Alberto Mavume24Dominique Mékiès25Alexis Mouche26Navalona Manitriniana Ravoson27Bruno Razafindradina28Elisa Rindraharisaona29Gregory Roberts30Manvendra Singh31Lova Zakariasy32Jonas Zucule33Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceLaboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceLaboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceLaboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceLaboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceLaboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceLaboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceLaboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceDirection Interrégionale de Météo-France pour l’Océan Indien, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceCNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, 31057 Toulouse, FranceCNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, 31057 Toulouse, FranceCNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, 31057 Toulouse, FranceSeychelles Meteorological Authority, Mahé 670311, SeychellesInstitut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Université de Paris, CNRS, 75005 Paris, FranceLaboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceKelonia, Observatoire des Tortues Marines de La Réunion, 97436 Saint-Leu, FranceObservatoire des Sciences de l’Univers de La Réunion (UAR 3365 OSU-R), 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceLaboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceLaboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceSeychelles Islands Foundation, Mahé 670311, SeychellesCollecte Localisation Satellites (CLS), 29280 Brest, FranceLaboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceLaboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceLaboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceDepartment of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo CP 257, MozambiqueLaboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, FranceLaboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale, Université de Brest, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, IUEM, 29280 Plouzané, FranceInstitut et Observatoire de Géophysique d’Antisiranana, Université d’Antisiranana, Antananarivo 101, MadagascarInstitut Supérieur de Technologie d’Antisiranana, Antsiranana 201, MadagascarInstitut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Université de Paris, CNRS, 75005 Paris, FranceCNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, 31057 Toulouse, FranceMauritius Oceanography Institute, Albion 95410, MauritiusInstitut Supérieur de Technologie d’Antisiranana, Antsiranana 201, MadagascarInstituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INAM), Maputo CP 256, MozambiqueThe ReNovRisk-Cyclone program aimed at developing an observation network in the south-west Indian ocean (SWIO) in close synergy with the implementation of numerical tools to model and analyze the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the present and in a context of climate change. This paper addresses the modeling part of the program. First, a unique coupled system to simulate TCs in the SWIO is developed. The ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling is considered along with a coherent coupling between sea surface state, wind field, aerosol, microphysics, and radiation. This coupled system is illustrated through several simulations of TCs: the impact of air–sea flux parameterizations on the evolution of TC Fantala is examined, the full coupling developed during the program is illustrated on TC Idai, and the potential of novel observations like space-borne synthetic aperture radar and sea turtles to validate the atmosphere and ocean models is presented with TC Herold. Secondly, the evolution of cyclonic activity in the SWIO during the second half of the 21st century is assessed. It was addressed both using climate simulation and through the implementation of a pseudo global warming method in the high-resolution coupled modeling platform. Our results suggest that the Mascarene Archipelago should experience an increase of TC related hazards in the medium term.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/6/689tropical cyclonesouth-west Indian oceancloud-resolving modelocean–wave–atmosphere couplingclimate modeling |
| spellingShingle | Christelle Barthe Olivier Bousquet Soline Bielli Pierre Tulet Joris Pianezze Marine Claeys Chia-Lun Tsai Callum Thompson François Bonnardot Fabrice Chauvin Julien Cattiaux Marie-Noëlle Bouin Vincent Amelie Guilhem Barruol Radiance Calmer Stéphane Ciccione Emmanuel Cordier Quoc-Phi Duong Jonathan Durand Frauke Fleischer-Dogley Romain Husson Edouard Lees Sylvie Malardel Nicolas Marquestaut Alberto Mavume Dominique Mékiès Alexis Mouche Navalona Manitriniana Ravoson Bruno Razafindradina Elisa Rindraharisaona Gregory Roberts Manvendra Singh Lova Zakariasy Jonas Zucule Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE Atmosphere tropical cyclone south-west Indian ocean cloud-resolving model ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling climate modeling |
| title | Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE |
| title_full | Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE |
| title_short | Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE |
| title_sort | impact of tropical cyclones on inhabited areas of the swio basin at present and future horizons part 2 modeling component of the research program renovrisk cyclone |
| topic | tropical cyclone south-west Indian ocean cloud-resolving model ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling climate modeling |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/6/689 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT christellebarthe impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT olivierbousquet impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT solinebielli impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT pierretulet impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT jorispianezze impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT marineclaeys impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT chialuntsai impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT callumthompson impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT francoisbonnardot impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT fabricechauvin impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT juliencattiaux impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT marienoellebouin impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT vincentamelie impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT guilhembarruol impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT radiancecalmer impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT stephaneciccione impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT emmanuelcordier impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT quocphiduong impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT jonathandurand impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT fraukefleischerdogley impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT romainhusson impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT edouardlees impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT sylviemalardel impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT nicolasmarquestaut impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT albertomavume impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT dominiquemekies impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT alexismouche impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT navalonamanitrinianaravoson impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT brunorazafindradina impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT elisarindraharisaona impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT gregoryroberts impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT manvendrasingh impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT lovazakariasy impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone AT jonaszucule impactoftropicalcyclonesoninhabitedareasoftheswiobasinatpresentandfuturehorizonspart2modelingcomponentoftheresearchprogramrenovriskcyclone |