The decision tree neural network as part of a cognitive model for forecasting the sustainability of the Russian economy
This study addresses the problem of sustainable economic growth, a subject that is highly relevant in the current conditions of market uncertainty. Given the importance of having an accurate forecast of GDP in uncertain market conditions, this study proposes a digital cognitive model that includes a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Sustainable Development and Engineering Economics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://sustainable.spbstu.ru/userfiles/files/2023/Vypusk-1-2023/1_5.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797839726278868992 |
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| author | Nikolai Lomakin Maxim Maramygin Tatyana Kuzmina Uranchimeg Tudevdagva Vimalarathne Kanchana Ivan Lomakin |
| author_facet | Nikolai Lomakin Maxim Maramygin Tatyana Kuzmina Uranchimeg Tudevdagva Vimalarathne Kanchana Ivan Lomakin |
| author_sort | Nikolai Lomakin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study addresses the problem of sustainable economic growth, a subject that is highly relevant in the current conditions of market uncertainty. Given the importance of having an accurate forecast of GDP in uncertain market conditions, this study proposes a digital cognitive model that includes an artificial intelligence (AI) system decision tree for forecasting GDP values. This study aims to test whether using a cognitive model with the application of the AI system decision tree can afford a more accurate forecast of GDP than known forecasting methods. To achieve this goal, this study: 1) investigated the theoretical fundamentals of sustainable economic growth; 2) identified the development trends of AI systems in economics and finance to create the model’s dataset; and 3) calculated the forecast value of GDP using the digital cognitive model that included the AI system decision tree. The methodology involves the formation and use of a cognitive model that uses a decision tree neural network based on the Python language in the Google Collab cloud environment. Further, monographic, analytical, and computational-constructive methods were used. The results showed that the developed digital cognitive model, which included an AI system decision tree, was capable of forming GDP forecast values under changing external parameters. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T16:01:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-59ca9aa1f3b047c18fd6a5ddb8eb3c42 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2782-6333 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T16:01:41Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Sustainable Development and Engineering Economics |
| spelling | doaj.art-59ca9aa1f3b047c18fd6a5ddb8eb3c422023-04-25T09:50:06ZengPeter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic UniversitySustainable Development and Engineering Economics2782-63332023-03-011 (7)829410.48554/SDEE.2023.1.5The decision tree neural network as part of a cognitive model for forecasting the sustainability of the Russian economyNikolai Lomakin0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6597-7195Maxim Maramygin1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3416-775XTatyana Kuzmina2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1757-5201Uranchimeg Tudevdagva3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9239-0760Vimalarathne Kanchana4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0853-7211Ivan Lomakin5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7392-1554Volgograd State Technical University, Volgograd, Russia Ural State University of Economics, Yekaterinburg, RussiaRussian University of Economics. G.V. Plekhanov, Moscow, RussiaChemnitz University of Technology, Chemnitz, GermanyVolgograd State Technical University, Volgograd, RussiaVolgograd State Technical University, Volgograd, RussiaThis study addresses the problem of sustainable economic growth, a subject that is highly relevant in the current conditions of market uncertainty. Given the importance of having an accurate forecast of GDP in uncertain market conditions, this study proposes a digital cognitive model that includes an artificial intelligence (AI) system decision tree for forecasting GDP values. This study aims to test whether using a cognitive model with the application of the AI system decision tree can afford a more accurate forecast of GDP than known forecasting methods. To achieve this goal, this study: 1) investigated the theoretical fundamentals of sustainable economic growth; 2) identified the development trends of AI systems in economics and finance to create the model’s dataset; and 3) calculated the forecast value of GDP using the digital cognitive model that included the AI system decision tree. The methodology involves the formation and use of a cognitive model that uses a decision tree neural network based on the Python language in the Google Collab cloud environment. Further, monographic, analytical, and computational-constructive methods were used. The results showed that the developed digital cognitive model, which included an AI system decision tree, was capable of forming GDP forecast values under changing external parameters.https://sustainable.spbstu.ru/userfiles/files/2023/Vypusk-1-2023/1_5.pdfdigital cognitive modelai systemdecision treegdp forecast |
| spellingShingle | Nikolai Lomakin Maxim Maramygin Tatyana Kuzmina Uranchimeg Tudevdagva Vimalarathne Kanchana Ivan Lomakin The decision tree neural network as part of a cognitive model for forecasting the sustainability of the Russian economy Sustainable Development and Engineering Economics digital cognitive model ai system decision tree gdp forecast |
| title | The decision tree neural network as part of a cognitive model for forecasting the sustainability of the Russian economy |
| title_full | The decision tree neural network as part of a cognitive model for forecasting the sustainability of the Russian economy |
| title_fullStr | The decision tree neural network as part of a cognitive model for forecasting the sustainability of the Russian economy |
| title_full_unstemmed | The decision tree neural network as part of a cognitive model for forecasting the sustainability of the Russian economy |
| title_short | The decision tree neural network as part of a cognitive model for forecasting the sustainability of the Russian economy |
| title_sort | decision tree neural network as part of a cognitive model for forecasting the sustainability of the russian economy |
| topic | digital cognitive model ai system decision tree gdp forecast |
| url | https://sustainable.spbstu.ru/userfiles/files/2023/Vypusk-1-2023/1_5.pdf |
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