Seasonality and Forecasting of Monthly Broiler Price in Iran
The objective of this study was to model seasonal behavior of broiler price in Iran that can be used to forecast the monthly broiler prices. In this context, the periodic autoregressive (PAR), the seasonal integrated models, and the Box-Jenkins (SARIMA) models were used as the primary nominates...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Islamic Azad University
2016-06-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ijamad.iaurasht.ac.ir/article_523363_53086dcc2e984372717f670d15f2b28e.pdf |
| Summary: | The objective of this study was to model seasonal behavior
of broiler price in Iran that can be used to forecast the
monthly broiler prices. In this context, the periodic autoregressive
(PAR), the seasonal integrated models, and the Box-Jenkins
(SARIMA) models were used as the primary nominates for the
forecasting model. It was shown that the PAR (q) model could
not be considered as an appropriate method for modeling
seasonal behavior of the broiler price. Results of seasonal unit
root test indicated that the monthly prices of broiler follow a
non-stationary stochastic seasonal process. Accordingly, the regression-based
model is an appropriate modeling framework.
While SARIMAis an alternative modeling approach, the RMSE
of forecasting error suggested the superiority of the regressionbased
model over the SARIMAmodel. Therefore, the estimated
parameters of the regression-based model can be used to predict
the monthly prices of broiler in Iran. |
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| ISSN: | 2159-5852 2159-5860 |