Seasonality and Forecasting of Monthly Broiler Price in Iran
The objective of this study was to model seasonal behavior of broiler price in Iran that can be used to forecast the monthly broiler prices. In this context, the periodic autoregressive (PAR), the seasonal integrated models, and the Box-Jenkins (SARIMA) models were used as the primary nominates...
| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Islamic Azad University
2016-06-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ijamad.iaurasht.ac.ir/article_523363_53086dcc2e984372717f670d15f2b28e.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819039655719337984 |
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| author | Azadeh Falsafian |
| author_facet | Azadeh Falsafian |
| author_sort | Azadeh Falsafian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The objective of this study was to model seasonal behavior
of broiler price in Iran that can be used to forecast the
monthly broiler prices. In this context, the periodic autoregressive
(PAR), the seasonal integrated models, and the Box-Jenkins
(SARIMA) models were used as the primary nominates for the
forecasting model. It was shown that the PAR (q) model could
not be considered as an appropriate method for modeling
seasonal behavior of the broiler price. Results of seasonal unit
root test indicated that the monthly prices of broiler follow a
non-stationary stochastic seasonal process. Accordingly, the regression-based
model is an appropriate modeling framework.
While SARIMAis an alternative modeling approach, the RMSE
of forecasting error suggested the superiority of the regressionbased
model over the SARIMAmodel. Therefore, the estimated
parameters of the regression-based model can be used to predict
the monthly prices of broiler in Iran. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T08:56:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-59e52d0b56764510ab5df55082fc3b0c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2159-5852 2159-5860 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T08:56:40Z |
| publishDate | 2016-06-01 |
| publisher | Islamic Azad University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development |
| spelling | doaj.art-59e52d0b56764510ab5df55082fc3b0c2022-12-21T19:09:32ZengIslamic Azad UniversityInternational Journal of Agricultural Management and Development2159-58522159-58602016-06-0162173180Seasonality and Forecasting of Monthly Broiler Price in IranAzadeh Falsafian0Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Management, Extension and Education, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.The objective of this study was to model seasonal behavior of broiler price in Iran that can be used to forecast the monthly broiler prices. In this context, the periodic autoregressive (PAR), the seasonal integrated models, and the Box-Jenkins (SARIMA) models were used as the primary nominates for the forecasting model. It was shown that the PAR (q) model could not be considered as an appropriate method for modeling seasonal behavior of the broiler price. Results of seasonal unit root test indicated that the monthly prices of broiler follow a non-stationary stochastic seasonal process. Accordingly, the regression-based model is an appropriate modeling framework. While SARIMAis an alternative modeling approach, the RMSE of forecasting error suggested the superiority of the regressionbased model over the SARIMAmodel. Therefore, the estimated parameters of the regression-based model can be used to predict the monthly prices of broiler in Iran.http://ijamad.iaurasht.ac.ir/article_523363_53086dcc2e984372717f670d15f2b28e.pdfSeasonalityBroiler pricePeriodic autoregressive (PAR)Seasonal unit root |
| spellingShingle | Azadeh Falsafian Seasonality and Forecasting of Monthly Broiler Price in Iran International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development Seasonality Broiler price Periodic autoregressive (PAR) Seasonal unit root |
| title | Seasonality and Forecasting of Monthly Broiler Price in Iran |
| title_full | Seasonality and Forecasting of Monthly Broiler Price in Iran |
| title_fullStr | Seasonality and Forecasting of Monthly Broiler Price in Iran |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonality and Forecasting of Monthly Broiler Price in Iran |
| title_short | Seasonality and Forecasting of Monthly Broiler Price in Iran |
| title_sort | seasonality and forecasting of monthly broiler price in iran |
| topic | Seasonality Broiler price Periodic autoregressive (PAR) Seasonal unit root |
| url | http://ijamad.iaurasht.ac.ir/article_523363_53086dcc2e984372717f670d15f2b28e.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT azadehfalsafian seasonalityandforecastingofmonthlybroilerpriceiniran |