Modelling the distribution of the Caucasian oak (Quercus macranthera) in Western Asia under future climate change scenarios
The Caucasian oak (Quercus macranthera), a native tree of Western Asia, typically grows at high altitudes where the effects of climate change are particularly notable. We analysed the climatic determinants of the current distribution of Q. macranthera and assessed the redistribution of areas suita...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University of Belgrade
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Botanica Serbica |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://botanicaserbica.bio.bg.ac.rs/arhiva/pdf/2023_47_2_874_full.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797647544630640640 |
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| author | Nihal Kenar Zaal Kikvidze |
| author_facet | Nihal Kenar Zaal Kikvidze |
| author_sort | Nihal Kenar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Caucasian oak (Quercus macranthera), a native tree of Western Asia, typically grows at high altitudes where the effects of climate change are particularly
notable. We analysed the climatic determinants of the current distribution of
Q. macranthera and assessed the redistribution of areas suitable for this species
as a consequence of climate change. We described the current range of distribution and predicted the potential geographical distribution of the Caucasian
oak using species distribution models and five algorithms from two Shared
Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs: SSP 1‒2.6 and 5‒8.5) for the years 2035, 2055,
and 2085, which are based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs). The
Random Forest algorithm most accurately described the current distribution
of Q. macranthera. SSP 1‒2.6 and SSP5‒8.5 predicted a pronounced contraction
of the highly suitable habitat for the Caucasian oak due to the increase in temperatures and changes in seasonal precipitation dynamics, that more intensive
climate change could lead to a greater loss of highly suitable habitats, and that
the populations of Q. macranthera could survive only in the Alborz Mountains
(northern Iran) and in the Great Caucasus Mountains. Our work helps to establish conservation strategies for species monitoring in order to minimise the
potential impacts of climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:18:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5a3cf6f7f857483590f38314588ff3c7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1821-2158 1821-2638 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:18:04Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | University of Belgrade |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Botanica Serbica |
| spelling | doaj.art-5a3cf6f7f857483590f38314588ff3c72023-10-29T11:12:13ZengUniversity of BelgradeBotanica Serbica1821-21581821-26382023-10-0147221522610.2298/BOTSERB2302215KModelling the distribution of the Caucasian oak (Quercus macranthera) in Western Asia under future climate change scenariosNihal Kenar0Zaal Kikvidze1Aksaray University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Biology Department, Aksaray 68100, TurkeyIlia State University, Institute of Ethno-biology and Socio-ecology, Ecology and Ethno-biology, 3/5 Cholokashvili Ave, Tbilisi 0162, GeorgiaThe Caucasian oak (Quercus macranthera), a native tree of Western Asia, typically grows at high altitudes where the effects of climate change are particularly notable. We analysed the climatic determinants of the current distribution of Q. macranthera and assessed the redistribution of areas suitable for this species as a consequence of climate change. We described the current range of distribution and predicted the potential geographical distribution of the Caucasian oak using species distribution models and five algorithms from two Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs: SSP 1‒2.6 and 5‒8.5) for the years 2035, 2055, and 2085, which are based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs). The Random Forest algorithm most accurately described the current distribution of Q. macranthera. SSP 1‒2.6 and SSP5‒8.5 predicted a pronounced contraction of the highly suitable habitat for the Caucasian oak due to the increase in temperatures and changes in seasonal precipitation dynamics, that more intensive climate change could lead to a greater loss of highly suitable habitats, and that the populations of Q. macranthera could survive only in the Alborz Mountains (northern Iran) and in the Great Caucasus Mountains. Our work helps to establish conservation strategies for species monitoring in order to minimise the potential impacts of climate change.https://botanicaserbica.bio.bg.ac.rs/arhiva/pdf/2023_47_2_874_full.pdfcmip6global warmingpotentially suitable habitatrandom forestspecies distribution models |
| spellingShingle | Nihal Kenar Zaal Kikvidze Modelling the distribution of the Caucasian oak (Quercus macranthera) in Western Asia under future climate change scenarios Botanica Serbica cmip6 global warming potentially suitable habitat random forest species distribution models |
| title | Modelling the distribution of the Caucasian oak (Quercus macranthera) in Western Asia under future climate change scenarios |
| title_full | Modelling the distribution of the Caucasian oak (Quercus macranthera) in Western Asia under future climate change scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the distribution of the Caucasian oak (Quercus macranthera) in Western Asia under future climate change scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the distribution of the Caucasian oak (Quercus macranthera) in Western Asia under future climate change scenarios |
| title_short | Modelling the distribution of the Caucasian oak (Quercus macranthera) in Western Asia under future climate change scenarios |
| title_sort | modelling the distribution of the caucasian oak quercus macranthera in western asia under future climate change scenarios |
| topic | cmip6 global warming potentially suitable habitat random forest species distribution models |
| url | https://botanicaserbica.bio.bg.ac.rs/arhiva/pdf/2023_47_2_874_full.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nihalkenar modellingthedistributionofthecaucasianoakquercusmacrantherainwesternasiaunderfutureclimatechangescenarios AT zaalkikvidze modellingthedistributionofthecaucasianoakquercusmacrantherainwesternasiaunderfutureclimatechangescenarios |