Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three Fritillaria species under climate change
Abstract The Fritillaria species ranked as a well-known traditional medicine in China and has become rare due to excessive harvesting. To find reasonable strategy for conservation and cultivation, identification of new ecological distribution of Fritillaria species together with prediction of those...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-45887-6 |
| _version_ | 1797636961968586752 |
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| author | Deya Huang Qiuju An Sipei Huang Guodong Tan Huige Quan Yineng Chen Jiayu Zhou Hai Liao |
| author_facet | Deya Huang Qiuju An Sipei Huang Guodong Tan Huige Quan Yineng Chen Jiayu Zhou Hai Liao |
| author_sort | Deya Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Fritillaria species ranked as a well-known traditional medicine in China and has become rare due to excessive harvesting. To find reasonable strategy for conservation and cultivation, identification of new ecological distribution of Fritillaria species together with prediction of those responses to climate change are necessary. In terms of current occurrence records and bioclimatic variables, the suitable habitats for Fritillaria delavayi, Fritillaria taipaiensis, and Fritillaria wabuensis were predicted. In comparison with Maxent and GARP, Biomod2 obtained the best AUC, KAPPA and TSS values of larger than 0.926 and was chosen to construct model. Temperature seasonality was indicated to put the greatest influence on Fritillaria taipaiensis and Fritillaria wabuensis, while isothermality was of most importance for Fritillaria delavayi. The current suitable areas for three Fritillaria species were distributed in south-west China, accounting for approximately 17.72%, 23.06% and 20.60% of China's total area, respectively. During 2021–2100 period, the suitable habitats of F. delavayi and F. wabuensis reached the maximum under SSP585 scenario, while that of F. taipaiensis reached the maximum under SSP126 scenario. The high niche overlap among three Fritillaria species showed correlation with the chemical composition (P ≤ 0.05), while no correlation was observed between niche overlap and DNA barcodes, indicating that spatial distribution had a major influence on chemical composition in the Fritillaria species. Finally, the acquisition of species-specific habitats would contribute to decrease in habitat competition, and future conservation and cultivation of Fritillaria species. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T12:41:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5a3efa86cd8049d2a29eb27b1ec5d0e2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T12:41:40Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-5a3efa86cd8049d2a29eb27b1ec5d0e22023-11-05T12:14:36ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-11-0113111510.1038/s41598-023-45887-6Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three Fritillaria species under climate changeDeya Huang0Qiuju An1Sipei Huang2Guodong Tan3Huige Quan4Yineng Chen5Jiayu Zhou6Hai Liao7School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong UniversitySchool of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong UniversitySchool of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong UniversitySchool of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong UniversitySchool of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong UniversitySchool of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong UniversitySchool of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong UniversitySchool of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong UniversityAbstract The Fritillaria species ranked as a well-known traditional medicine in China and has become rare due to excessive harvesting. To find reasonable strategy for conservation and cultivation, identification of new ecological distribution of Fritillaria species together with prediction of those responses to climate change are necessary. In terms of current occurrence records and bioclimatic variables, the suitable habitats for Fritillaria delavayi, Fritillaria taipaiensis, and Fritillaria wabuensis were predicted. In comparison with Maxent and GARP, Biomod2 obtained the best AUC, KAPPA and TSS values of larger than 0.926 and was chosen to construct model. Temperature seasonality was indicated to put the greatest influence on Fritillaria taipaiensis and Fritillaria wabuensis, while isothermality was of most importance for Fritillaria delavayi. The current suitable areas for three Fritillaria species were distributed in south-west China, accounting for approximately 17.72%, 23.06% and 20.60% of China's total area, respectively. During 2021–2100 period, the suitable habitats of F. delavayi and F. wabuensis reached the maximum under SSP585 scenario, while that of F. taipaiensis reached the maximum under SSP126 scenario. The high niche overlap among three Fritillaria species showed correlation with the chemical composition (P ≤ 0.05), while no correlation was observed between niche overlap and DNA barcodes, indicating that spatial distribution had a major influence on chemical composition in the Fritillaria species. Finally, the acquisition of species-specific habitats would contribute to decrease in habitat competition, and future conservation and cultivation of Fritillaria species.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-45887-6 |
| spellingShingle | Deya Huang Qiuju An Sipei Huang Guodong Tan Huige Quan Yineng Chen Jiayu Zhou Hai Liao Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three Fritillaria species under climate change Scientific Reports |
| title | Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three Fritillaria species under climate change |
| title_full | Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three Fritillaria species under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three Fritillaria species under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three Fritillaria species under climate change |
| title_short | Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three Fritillaria species under climate change |
| title_sort | biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three fritillaria species under climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-45887-6 |
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