Climate change, species thermal emergence, and conservation design: a case study in the Canadian Northwest Atlantic
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are conservation tools that promote biodiversity by regulating human impacts. However, because MPAs are fixed in space and, by design, difficult to change, climate change may challenge their long-term effectiveness. It is therefore imperative to consider anticipated eco...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Canadian Science Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | FACETS |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://facetsjournal.com/doi/10.1139/facets-2022-0191 |
| _version_ | 1797820298033102848 |
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| author | Shaylyn A. Lewis Christine H. Stortini Daniel G. Boyce Ryan R.E. Stanley |
| author_facet | Shaylyn A. Lewis Christine H. Stortini Daniel G. Boyce Ryan R.E. Stanley |
| author_sort | Shaylyn A. Lewis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are conservation tools that promote biodiversity by regulating human impacts. However, because MPAs are fixed in space and, by design, difficult to change, climate change may challenge their long-term effectiveness. It is therefore imperative to consider anticipated ecological changes in their design. We predict the time of emergence (ToE: year when temperatures will exceed a species’ tolerance) of 30 fish and invertebrate species in the Scotian Shelf-Bay of Fundy draft network of conservation areas based on climate projections under two contrasting emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). We demonstrate a strong Southwest-to-Northeast gradient of change under both scenarios. Cold water-associated species had earlier ToEs, particularly in southwesterly areas. Under low emissions, 20.0% of habitat and 12.6% of species emerged from the network as a whole by 2100. Under high emissions, 51% of habitat and 42% of species emerged. These impacts are expected within the next 30–50 years in some southwestern areas. The magnitude and velocity of change will be tempered by reduced emissions. Our identification of high- and low-risk areas for species of direct and indirect conservation interest can support decisions regarding site and network design (and designation scheduling), promoting climate resilience. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T09:36:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5a627cb4162c434c88caa7373d502263 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2371-1671 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T09:36:21Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Canadian Science Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | FACETS |
| spelling | doaj.art-5a627cb4162c434c88caa7373d5022632023-05-25T13:00:30ZengCanadian Science PublishingFACETS2371-16712023-01-01811610.1139/facets-2022-0191Climate change, species thermal emergence, and conservation design: a case study in the Canadian Northwest AtlanticShaylyn A. Lewis0Christine H. Stortini1Daniel G. Boyce2Ryan R.E. Stanley3Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, PO Box 15000, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, CanadaBedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 1 Challenger Drive, Dartmouth, NS B2Y 4A2, CanadaBedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 1 Challenger Drive, Dartmouth, NS B2Y 4A2, CanadaBedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 1 Challenger Drive, Dartmouth, NS B2Y 4A2, CanadaMarine Protected Areas (MPAs) are conservation tools that promote biodiversity by regulating human impacts. However, because MPAs are fixed in space and, by design, difficult to change, climate change may challenge their long-term effectiveness. It is therefore imperative to consider anticipated ecological changes in their design. We predict the time of emergence (ToE: year when temperatures will exceed a species’ tolerance) of 30 fish and invertebrate species in the Scotian Shelf-Bay of Fundy draft network of conservation areas based on climate projections under two contrasting emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). We demonstrate a strong Southwest-to-Northeast gradient of change under both scenarios. Cold water-associated species had earlier ToEs, particularly in southwesterly areas. Under low emissions, 20.0% of habitat and 12.6% of species emerged from the network as a whole by 2100. Under high emissions, 51% of habitat and 42% of species emerged. These impacts are expected within the next 30–50 years in some southwestern areas. The magnitude and velocity of change will be tempered by reduced emissions. Our identification of high- and low-risk areas for species of direct and indirect conservation interest can support decisions regarding site and network design (and designation scheduling), promoting climate resilience.https://facetsjournal.com/doi/10.1139/facets-2022-0191Marine Protected Areas (MPA)climate changeRCP 2.6RCP 8.5time of emergence (ToE)conservation network |
| spellingShingle | Shaylyn A. Lewis Christine H. Stortini Daniel G. Boyce Ryan R.E. Stanley Climate change, species thermal emergence, and conservation design: a case study in the Canadian Northwest Atlantic FACETS Marine Protected Areas (MPA) climate change RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 time of emergence (ToE) conservation network |
| title | Climate change, species thermal emergence, and conservation design: a case study in the Canadian Northwest Atlantic |
| title_full | Climate change, species thermal emergence, and conservation design: a case study in the Canadian Northwest Atlantic |
| title_fullStr | Climate change, species thermal emergence, and conservation design: a case study in the Canadian Northwest Atlantic |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change, species thermal emergence, and conservation design: a case study in the Canadian Northwest Atlantic |
| title_short | Climate change, species thermal emergence, and conservation design: a case study in the Canadian Northwest Atlantic |
| title_sort | climate change species thermal emergence and conservation design a case study in the canadian northwest atlantic |
| topic | Marine Protected Areas (MPA) climate change RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 time of emergence (ToE) conservation network |
| url | https://facetsjournal.com/doi/10.1139/facets-2022-0191 |
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