An optimal portfolio method based on real time prediction of gold and bitcoin prices

Aiming at the portfolio problem of gold and bitcoin with a given linear trading commission, this paper puts forward the stage implementation forecast and optimal portfolio model. In the aspect of data prediction, SMA is used to predict the initial data, LSTM is used to predict the price trend of lon...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Zhongqi Miao, Wenxuan Huang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2022-12-01
Series:Systems Science & Control Engineering
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/21642583.2022.2096149
Description
Summary:Aiming at the portfolio problem of gold and bitcoin with a given linear trading commission, this paper puts forward the stage implementation forecast and optimal portfolio model. In the aspect of data prediction, SMA is used to predict the initial data, LSTM is used to predict the price trend of long-term data, and daily updated real-time price data is predicted. Considering the risk aversion of investors, the heuristic algorithm is used to solve the daily trading strategy of maximizing utility from September 12th, 2016 to September 12th, 2021. The simulation analysis of the sliding window shows that the algorithm can realize reasonable prediction, which verifies the effectiveness of the algorithm.
ISSN:2164-2583