Predicting Outflow Hydrographs of Potential Dike Breaches in a Bifurcating River System Using NARX Neural Networks
Early flood forecasting systems can mitigate flood damage during extreme events. Typically, the effects of flood events in terms of inundation depths and extents are computed using detailed hydraulic models. However, a major drawback of these models is the computational time, which is generally in t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Hydrology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/8/2/87 |
| _version_ | 1797531508596015104 |
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| author | Anouk Bomers |
| author_facet | Anouk Bomers |
| author_sort | Anouk Bomers |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Early flood forecasting systems can mitigate flood damage during extreme events. Typically, the effects of flood events in terms of inundation depths and extents are computed using detailed hydraulic models. However, a major drawback of these models is the computational time, which is generally in the order of hours to days for large river basins. Gaining insight in the outflow hydrographs in case of dike breaches is especially important to estimate inundation extents. In this study, NARX neural networks that were capable of predicting outflow hydrographs of multiple dike breaches accurately were developed. The timing of the dike failures and the cumulative outflow volumes were accurately predicted. These findings show that neural networks—specifically, NARX networks that are capable of predicting flood time series—have the potential to be used within a flood early warning system in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T10:44:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5ad952cf42874d7784f9d35d304d7cec |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2306-5338 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T10:44:49Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology |
| spelling | doaj.art-5ad952cf42874d7784f9d35d304d7cec2023-11-21T22:39:35ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382021-06-01828710.3390/hydrology8020087Predicting Outflow Hydrographs of Potential Dike Breaches in a Bifurcating River System Using NARX Neural NetworksAnouk Bomers0Water Engineering and Management Department, University of Twente, 7500 AE Enschede, The NetherlandsEarly flood forecasting systems can mitigate flood damage during extreme events. Typically, the effects of flood events in terms of inundation depths and extents are computed using detailed hydraulic models. However, a major drawback of these models is the computational time, which is generally in the order of hours to days for large river basins. Gaining insight in the outflow hydrographs in case of dike breaches is especially important to estimate inundation extents. In this study, NARX neural networks that were capable of predicting outflow hydrographs of multiple dike breaches accurately were developed. The timing of the dike failures and the cumulative outflow volumes were accurately predicted. These findings show that neural networks—specifically, NARX networks that are capable of predicting flood time series—have the potential to be used within a flood early warning system in the future.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/8/2/87outflow hydrographdike breachartificial neural networkflood forecasting systemflood prediction |
| spellingShingle | Anouk Bomers Predicting Outflow Hydrographs of Potential Dike Breaches in a Bifurcating River System Using NARX Neural Networks Hydrology outflow hydrograph dike breach artificial neural network flood forecasting system flood prediction |
| title | Predicting Outflow Hydrographs of Potential Dike Breaches in a Bifurcating River System Using NARX Neural Networks |
| title_full | Predicting Outflow Hydrographs of Potential Dike Breaches in a Bifurcating River System Using NARX Neural Networks |
| title_fullStr | Predicting Outflow Hydrographs of Potential Dike Breaches in a Bifurcating River System Using NARX Neural Networks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting Outflow Hydrographs of Potential Dike Breaches in a Bifurcating River System Using NARX Neural Networks |
| title_short | Predicting Outflow Hydrographs of Potential Dike Breaches in a Bifurcating River System Using NARX Neural Networks |
| title_sort | predicting outflow hydrographs of potential dike breaches in a bifurcating river system using narx neural networks |
| topic | outflow hydrograph dike breach artificial neural network flood forecasting system flood prediction |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/8/2/87 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT anoukbomers predictingoutflowhydrographsofpotentialdikebreachesinabifurcatingriversystemusingnarxneuralnetworks |