Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback
Abstract The complete or partial collapse of the forests of Amazonia is consistently named as one of the top ten possible tipping points of Planet Earth in a changing climate. However, apart from a few observational studies that showed increased mortality after the severe droughts of 2005 and 2010,...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2021-02-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00162-1 |
| _version_ | 1818405455322415104 |
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| author | Yuanfang Chai Guilherme Martins Carlos Nobre Celso von Randow Tiexi Chen Han Dolman |
| author_facet | Yuanfang Chai Guilherme Martins Carlos Nobre Celso von Randow Tiexi Chen Han Dolman |
| author_sort | Yuanfang Chai |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The complete or partial collapse of the forests of Amazonia is consistently named as one of the top ten possible tipping points of Planet Earth in a changing climate. However, apart from a few observational studies that showed increased mortality after the severe droughts of 2005 and 2010, the evidence for such collapse depends primarily on modelling. Such studies are notoriously deficient at predicting the rainfall in the Amazon basin and how the vegetation interacts with the rainfall is poorly represented. Here, we use long-term surface-based observations of the air temperature and rainfall in Amazonia to provide a constraint on the modelled sensitivity of temperature to changes in precipitation. This emergent constraint also allows us to significantly constrain the likelihood of a forest collapse or dieback. We conclude that Amazon dieback under IPCC scenario RCP8.5 (crossing the tipping point) is not likely to occur in the twenty-first century. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T08:56:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5b3a6c7194024cb78b0ea101008ef118 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T08:56:19Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-5b3a6c7194024cb78b0ea101008ef1182022-12-21T23:08:55ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222021-02-01411710.1038/s41612-021-00162-1Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest diebackYuanfang Chai0Guilherme Martins1Carlos Nobre2Celso von Randow3Tiexi Chen4Han Dolman5Department of Earth Sciences, Free University AmsterdamINPE-CCSTINPE-CCSTINPE-CCSTSchool of Geography, Nanjing University of Science and TechnologyDepartment of Earth Sciences, Free University AmsterdamAbstract The complete or partial collapse of the forests of Amazonia is consistently named as one of the top ten possible tipping points of Planet Earth in a changing climate. However, apart from a few observational studies that showed increased mortality after the severe droughts of 2005 and 2010, the evidence for such collapse depends primarily on modelling. Such studies are notoriously deficient at predicting the rainfall in the Amazon basin and how the vegetation interacts with the rainfall is poorly represented. Here, we use long-term surface-based observations of the air temperature and rainfall in Amazonia to provide a constraint on the modelled sensitivity of temperature to changes in precipitation. This emergent constraint also allows us to significantly constrain the likelihood of a forest collapse or dieback. We conclude that Amazon dieback under IPCC scenario RCP8.5 (crossing the tipping point) is not likely to occur in the twenty-first century.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00162-1 |
| spellingShingle | Yuanfang Chai Guilherme Martins Carlos Nobre Celso von Randow Tiexi Chen Han Dolman Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback |
| title_full | Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback |
| title_fullStr | Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback |
| title_full_unstemmed | Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback |
| title_short | Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback |
| title_sort | constraining amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00162-1 |
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