The ozone–climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100
<p>Climate change has the potential to increase surface ozone (<span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span>) concentrations, known as the “ozone–climate penalty”, through changes to atmospheric chemistry, transport and dry deposition. In the tropics, the...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/12331/2022/acp-22-12331-2022.pdf |
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| author | F. Brown G. A. Folberth S. Sitch S. Bauer S. Bauer M. Bauters P. Boeckx A. W. Cheesman A. W. Cheesman M. Deushi I. Dos Santos Vieira C. Galy-Lacaux J. Haywood J. Haywood J. Keeble J. Keeble L. M. Mercado L. M. Mercado F. M. O'Connor N. Oshima K. Tsigaridis K. Tsigaridis H. Verbeeck |
| author_facet | F. Brown G. A. Folberth S. Sitch S. Bauer S. Bauer M. Bauters P. Boeckx A. W. Cheesman A. W. Cheesman M. Deushi I. Dos Santos Vieira C. Galy-Lacaux J. Haywood J. Haywood J. Keeble J. Keeble L. M. Mercado L. M. Mercado F. M. O'Connor N. Oshima K. Tsigaridis K. Tsigaridis H. Verbeeck |
| author_sort | F. Brown |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Climate change has the potential to increase surface ozone (<span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span>)
concentrations, known as the “ozone–climate penalty”, through changes to
atmospheric chemistry, transport and dry deposition. In the tropics, the
response of surface <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> to changing climate is relatively
understudied but has important consequences for air pollution and human and
ecosystem health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span>
due to climate change over South America and Africa using three
state-of-the-art Earth system models that follow the Shared Socioeconomic
Pathway 3-7.0 emission scenario from CMIP6. In order to quantify changes
due to climate change alone, we evaluate the difference between simulations
including climate change and simulations with a fixed present-day climate.
We find that by 2100, models predict an ozone–climate penalty in areas
where <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> is already predicted to be high due to the impacts of
precursor emissions, namely urban and biomass burning areas, although on
average, models predict a decrease in surface <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> due to climate change.
We identify a small but robust positive trend in annual mean surface <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span>
over polluted areas. Additionally, during biomass burning seasons, seasonal
mean <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> concentrations increase by 15 ppb (model range 12 to 18 ppb) in
areas with substantial biomass burning such as the arc of deforestation in
the Amazon. The ozone–climate penalty in polluted areas is shown to be
driven by an increased rate of <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> chemical production, which is
strongly influenced by <span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> concentrations and is therefore specific to the
emission pathway chosen. Multiple linear regression finds the change in <span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span>
concentration to be a strong predictor of the change in <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> production, whereas increased isoprene emission rate is positively correlated with
increased <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> destruction, suggesting <span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span>-limited conditions over the
majority of tropical Africa and South America. However, models disagree on
the role of climate change in remote, low-<span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> regions, partly because of
significant differences in <span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> concentrations produced by each model. We
also find that the magnitude and location of the ozone–climate penalty in
the Congo Basin has greater inter-model variation than that in the Amazon, so
further model development and validation are needed to constrain the response
in central Africa. We conclude that if the climate were to change according
to the emission scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in
biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk
of high <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> exposure, irrespective of any direct impacts on <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span>
via the prescribed emission scenario.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T09:50:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5b46d716e0174dd2ac322fbd596c328b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T09:50:38Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-5b46d716e0174dd2ac322fbd596c328b2022-12-22T04:30:49ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242022-09-0122123311235210.5194/acp-22-12331-2022The ozone–climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100F. Brown0G. A. Folberth1S. Sitch2S. Bauer3S. Bauer4M. Bauters5P. Boeckx6A. W. Cheesman7A. W. Cheesman8M. Deushi9I. Dos Santos Vieira10C. Galy-Lacaux11J. Haywood12J. Haywood13J. Keeble14J. Keeble15L. M. Mercado16L. M. Mercado17F. M. O'Connor18N. Oshima19K. Tsigaridis20K. Tsigaridis21H. Verbeeck22College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UKUK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKCollege of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UKCenter for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USANASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USADepartment of Environment, Ghent University, Ghent, BelgiumDepartment of Environment, Ghent University, Ghent, BelgiumCollege of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UKCentre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD, AustraliaMeteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, JapanDepartment of Environment, Ghent University, Ghent, BelgiumLaboratoire d'Aerologie, Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceCollege of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UKUK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKYusuf Hamied Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKNational Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKCollege of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UKUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UKUK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKMeteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, JapanCenter for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USANASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USADepartment of Environment, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium<p>Climate change has the potential to increase surface ozone (<span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span>) concentrations, known as the “ozone–climate penalty”, through changes to atmospheric chemistry, transport and dry deposition. In the tropics, the response of surface <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> to changing climate is relatively understudied but has important consequences for air pollution and human and ecosystem health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> due to climate change over South America and Africa using three state-of-the-art Earth system models that follow the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 emission scenario from CMIP6. In order to quantify changes due to climate change alone, we evaluate the difference between simulations including climate change and simulations with a fixed present-day climate. We find that by 2100, models predict an ozone–climate penalty in areas where <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> is already predicted to be high due to the impacts of precursor emissions, namely urban and biomass burning areas, although on average, models predict a decrease in surface <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> due to climate change. We identify a small but robust positive trend in annual mean surface <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> over polluted areas. Additionally, during biomass burning seasons, seasonal mean <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> concentrations increase by 15 ppb (model range 12 to 18 ppb) in areas with substantial biomass burning such as the arc of deforestation in the Amazon. The ozone–climate penalty in polluted areas is shown to be driven by an increased rate of <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> chemical production, which is strongly influenced by <span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> concentrations and is therefore specific to the emission pathway chosen. Multiple linear regression finds the change in <span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> concentration to be a strong predictor of the change in <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> production, whereas increased isoprene emission rate is positively correlated with increased <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> destruction, suggesting <span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span>-limited conditions over the majority of tropical Africa and South America. However, models disagree on the role of climate change in remote, low-<span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> regions, partly because of significant differences in <span class="inline-formula">NO<sub><i>x</i></sub></span> concentrations produced by each model. We also find that the magnitude and location of the ozone–climate penalty in the Congo Basin has greater inter-model variation than that in the Amazon, so further model development and validation are needed to constrain the response in central Africa. We conclude that if the climate were to change according to the emission scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk of high <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> exposure, irrespective of any direct impacts on <span class="inline-formula">O<sub>3</sub></span> via the prescribed emission scenario.</p>https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/12331/2022/acp-22-12331-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | F. Brown G. A. Folberth S. Sitch S. Bauer S. Bauer M. Bauters P. Boeckx A. W. Cheesman A. W. Cheesman M. Deushi I. Dos Santos Vieira C. Galy-Lacaux J. Haywood J. Haywood J. Keeble J. Keeble L. M. Mercado L. M. Mercado F. M. O'Connor N. Oshima K. Tsigaridis K. Tsigaridis H. Verbeeck The ozone–climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | The ozone–climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100 |
| title_full | The ozone–climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100 |
| title_fullStr | The ozone–climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The ozone–climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100 |
| title_short | The ozone–climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100 |
| title_sort | ozone climate penalty over south america and africa by 2100 |
| url | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/12331/2022/acp-22-12331-2022.pdf |
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