Estimating medical risk in human spaceflight
Abstract NASA and commercial spaceflight companies will soon be retuning humans to the Moon and then eventually sending them on to Mars. These distant planetary destinations will pose new risks—in particular for the health of the astronaut crews. The bulk of the evidence characterizing human health...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2022-03-01
|
| Series: | npj Microgravity |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41526-022-00193-9 |
| _version_ | 1797428597031436288 |
|---|---|
| author | Erik L. Antonsen Jerry G. Myers Lynn Boley John Arellano Eric Kerstman Binaifer Kadwa Daniel M. Buckland Mary Van Baalen |
| author_facet | Erik L. Antonsen Jerry G. Myers Lynn Boley John Arellano Eric Kerstman Binaifer Kadwa Daniel M. Buckland Mary Van Baalen |
| author_sort | Erik L. Antonsen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract NASA and commercial spaceflight companies will soon be retuning humans to the Moon and then eventually sending them on to Mars. These distant planetary destinations will pose new risks—in particular for the health of the astronaut crews. The bulk of the evidence characterizing human health and performance in spaceflight has come from missions in Low Earth Orbit. As missions last longer and travel farther from Earth, medical risk is expected to contribute an increasing proportion of total mission risk. To date, there have been no reliable estimates of how much. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Monte-Carlo simulation tool developed by NASA for medical risk assessment. This paper uses the IMM to provide an evidence-based, quantified medical risk estimate comparison across different spaceflight mission durations. We discuss model limitations and unimplemented capabilities providing insight into the complexity of medical risk estimation for human spaceflight. The results enable prioritization of medical needs in the context of other mission risks. These findings provide a reasonable bounding estimate for medical risk in missions to the Moon and Mars and hold value for risk managers and mission planners in performing cost-benefit trades for mission capability and research investments. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T09:00:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5b4e0ece050d4439a3c905a2cbb3d6fb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2373-8065 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T09:00:08Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Microgravity |
| spelling | doaj.art-5b4e0ece050d4439a3c905a2cbb3d6fb2023-12-02T11:48:37ZengNature Portfolionpj Microgravity2373-80652022-03-018111010.1038/s41526-022-00193-9Estimating medical risk in human spaceflightErik L. Antonsen0Jerry G. Myers1Lynn Boley2John Arellano3Eric Kerstman4Binaifer Kadwa5Daniel M. Buckland6Mary Van Baalen7Center for Space Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, Baylor College of MedicineNASA Glenn Research CenterKBRAegis Aerospace Inc.Department of Preventive Medicine and Population Health, University of Texas Medical BranchNASA Johnson Space CenterNASA Johnson Space CenterNASA Johnson Space CenterAbstract NASA and commercial spaceflight companies will soon be retuning humans to the Moon and then eventually sending them on to Mars. These distant planetary destinations will pose new risks—in particular for the health of the astronaut crews. The bulk of the evidence characterizing human health and performance in spaceflight has come from missions in Low Earth Orbit. As missions last longer and travel farther from Earth, medical risk is expected to contribute an increasing proportion of total mission risk. To date, there have been no reliable estimates of how much. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Monte-Carlo simulation tool developed by NASA for medical risk assessment. This paper uses the IMM to provide an evidence-based, quantified medical risk estimate comparison across different spaceflight mission durations. We discuss model limitations and unimplemented capabilities providing insight into the complexity of medical risk estimation for human spaceflight. The results enable prioritization of medical needs in the context of other mission risks. These findings provide a reasonable bounding estimate for medical risk in missions to the Moon and Mars and hold value for risk managers and mission planners in performing cost-benefit trades for mission capability and research investments.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41526-022-00193-9 |
| spellingShingle | Erik L. Antonsen Jerry G. Myers Lynn Boley John Arellano Eric Kerstman Binaifer Kadwa Daniel M. Buckland Mary Van Baalen Estimating medical risk in human spaceflight npj Microgravity |
| title | Estimating medical risk in human spaceflight |
| title_full | Estimating medical risk in human spaceflight |
| title_fullStr | Estimating medical risk in human spaceflight |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating medical risk in human spaceflight |
| title_short | Estimating medical risk in human spaceflight |
| title_sort | estimating medical risk in human spaceflight |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41526-022-00193-9 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT eriklantonsen estimatingmedicalriskinhumanspaceflight AT jerrygmyers estimatingmedicalriskinhumanspaceflight AT lynnboley estimatingmedicalriskinhumanspaceflight AT johnarellano estimatingmedicalriskinhumanspaceflight AT erickerstman estimatingmedicalriskinhumanspaceflight AT binaiferkadwa estimatingmedicalriskinhumanspaceflight AT danielmbuckland estimatingmedicalriskinhumanspaceflight AT maryvanbaalen estimatingmedicalriskinhumanspaceflight |