Trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics in chronic hepatitis B patients during nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy based on ARMA models
Background: Trend pattern analysis are lacking for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) kinetics in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients during nucleos(t)ide analogue (Nuc) therapy. We evaluated the trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics by time series analysis and forecasting times to HBsAg seroclearance ac...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of the Formosan Medical Association |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929664623000049 |
| _version_ | 1797823349271822336 |
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| author | Hsien-Chung Yu Wen-Wei Huo Kung-Hung Lin Wei-Chih Sun Ching-Nun Lee |
| author_facet | Hsien-Chung Yu Wen-Wei Huo Kung-Hung Lin Wei-Chih Sun Ching-Nun Lee |
| author_sort | Hsien-Chung Yu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Trend pattern analysis are lacking for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) kinetics in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients during nucleos(t)ide analogue (Nuc) therapy. We evaluated the trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics by time series analysis and forecasting times to HBsAg seroclearance accordingly. Methods: A total of 116 CHB patients with documented three-month HBsAg levels during the previous more than five years of Nuc therapy were included. The piecewise linear trends of the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model were used for time series analysis of HBsAg kinetics trends. Best fitted models were created for each patient using HBsAg datasets with backtracking capability. Predicted time to HBsAg seroclearance was calculated accordingly. Results: Four trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics were found: no trend (n = 22, 19.0%), single trend (n = 16, 13.8%), biphasic trend with rapid-slow decline (n = 56, 48.2%) and biphasic trend with rise-decline (n = 22, 19.0%). Except for no-trend patients, the trend became slow reduction as HBsAg declined. Only 6.1% of patients continued rapid decline when the initial HBsAg of the last trend reached <100 IU/mL. Last trend slopes < −10 and rise-decline patterns indicate greater chances of achieving HBsAg seroclearance within two years. Conclusion: Best fitted ARMA models of HBsAg kinetics can be created individually for patients during Nuc therapy. About 67.2% patients have biphasic trend patterns, suggesting the dynamic nature of HBsAg kinetics over time. Trend patterns and last trend slopes predict individual times to HBsAg seroclearance. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T10:22:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5b5d917f72a645beaa8f30431f6212bb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0929-6646 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T10:22:47Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of the Formosan Medical Association |
| spelling | doaj.art-5b5d917f72a645beaa8f30431f6212bb2023-05-20T04:29:29ZengElsevierJournal of the Formosan Medical Association0929-66462023-06-011226458469Trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics in chronic hepatitis B patients during nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy based on ARMA modelsHsien-Chung Yu0Wen-Wei Huo1Kung-Hung Lin2Wei-Chih Sun3Ching-Nun Lee4Health Management Center, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung 813, Taiwan; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung 813, Taiwan; Department of Nursing, Meiho Institute of Technology, Ping-Tung 912, Taiwan; Institute of BioPharmaceutical Sciences, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung 804, Taiwan; Corresponding author. Health Management Center, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, 386, Ta-Chung 1st Road, Kaohsiung 813, Taiwan.Health Management Center, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung 813, Taiwan; Institute of Economics, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung 804, TaiwanHealth Management Center, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung 813, Taiwan; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung 813, Taiwan; Department of Nursing, Meiho Institute of Technology, Ping-Tung 912, TaiwanDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung 813, TaiwanInstitute of Economics, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung 804, TaiwanBackground: Trend pattern analysis are lacking for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) kinetics in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients during nucleos(t)ide analogue (Nuc) therapy. We evaluated the trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics by time series analysis and forecasting times to HBsAg seroclearance accordingly. Methods: A total of 116 CHB patients with documented three-month HBsAg levels during the previous more than five years of Nuc therapy were included. The piecewise linear trends of the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model were used for time series analysis of HBsAg kinetics trends. Best fitted models were created for each patient using HBsAg datasets with backtracking capability. Predicted time to HBsAg seroclearance was calculated accordingly. Results: Four trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics were found: no trend (n = 22, 19.0%), single trend (n = 16, 13.8%), biphasic trend with rapid-slow decline (n = 56, 48.2%) and biphasic trend with rise-decline (n = 22, 19.0%). Except for no-trend patients, the trend became slow reduction as HBsAg declined. Only 6.1% of patients continued rapid decline when the initial HBsAg of the last trend reached <100 IU/mL. Last trend slopes < −10 and rise-decline patterns indicate greater chances of achieving HBsAg seroclearance within two years. Conclusion: Best fitted ARMA models of HBsAg kinetics can be created individually for patients during Nuc therapy. About 67.2% patients have biphasic trend patterns, suggesting the dynamic nature of HBsAg kinetics over time. Trend patterns and last trend slopes predict individual times to HBsAg seroclearance.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929664623000049ARMA modelHBsAg kineticsNucleas(t)ide analogueTime series analysis |
| spellingShingle | Hsien-Chung Yu Wen-Wei Huo Kung-Hung Lin Wei-Chih Sun Ching-Nun Lee Trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics in chronic hepatitis B patients during nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy based on ARMA models Journal of the Formosan Medical Association ARMA model HBsAg kinetics Nucleas(t)ide analogue Time series analysis |
| title | Trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics in chronic hepatitis B patients during nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy based on ARMA models |
| title_full | Trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics in chronic hepatitis B patients during nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy based on ARMA models |
| title_fullStr | Trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics in chronic hepatitis B patients during nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy based on ARMA models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics in chronic hepatitis B patients during nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy based on ARMA models |
| title_short | Trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics in chronic hepatitis B patients during nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy based on ARMA models |
| title_sort | trend patterns of hbsag kinetics in chronic hepatitis b patients during nucleos t ide analogue therapy based on arma models |
| topic | ARMA model HBsAg kinetics Nucleas(t)ide analogue Time series analysis |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929664623000049 |
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