The confounding effect of multi-type human papillomavirus infections on type-specific natural history parameter identification
The natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) from infection to cervical cancer differs between HPV types. Accordingly, type-specific natural history parameters are crucial for the mathematical models used to optimize the nearly life-long series of disease prevention measures. These parameters a...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2021-09-01
|
| Series: | Epidemics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000256 |
| _version_ | 1818669035311595520 |
|---|---|
| author | Anna Suomenrinne-Nordvik Simopekka Vänskä |
| author_facet | Anna Suomenrinne-Nordvik Simopekka Vänskä |
| author_sort | Anna Suomenrinne-Nordvik |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) from infection to cervical cancer differs between HPV types. Accordingly, type-specific natural history parameters are crucial for the mathematical models used to optimize the nearly life-long series of disease prevention measures. These parameters are estimated from genotyped data from trials and population level screening programs, typically one type at a time, which requires projecting the multiple-type data to the single type. To analyze impacts of such projection methods on the estimates, we compared estimating one type at a time using different projection methods with estimating all types together. We simulated genotyped data with chosen parameter values for two HPV types and analyzed the identifiability of the chosen values using the different estimation methods. We found the success of estimating one type at a time to be excessively sensitive to the data projection method, with potential to falsely identify the parameters at wrong values. Estimating all types together identified the parameters well. Our results were consistent both when trial and population level data were used. In conclusion, the potential confounding by multi-type infections has to be considered when choosing an estimation method for type-specific natural history parameters. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T06:45:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5b7f40c9a0ec4588bb49e43dfdeec4b9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1755-4365 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T06:45:49Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemics |
| spelling | doaj.art-5b7f40c9a0ec4588bb49e43dfdeec4b92022-12-21T21:59:45ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43652021-09-0136100468The confounding effect of multi-type human papillomavirus infections on type-specific natural history parameter identificationAnna Suomenrinne-Nordvik0Simopekka Vänskä1Infectious Disease Control and Vaccinations Unit, Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Finland; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Helsinki, Finland; Tampere University Hospital, Tampere, Finland; Corresponding author at: Infectious Disease Control and Vaccinations Unit, Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Finland.Infectious Disease Control and Vaccinations Unit, Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, FinlandThe natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) from infection to cervical cancer differs between HPV types. Accordingly, type-specific natural history parameters are crucial for the mathematical models used to optimize the nearly life-long series of disease prevention measures. These parameters are estimated from genotyped data from trials and population level screening programs, typically one type at a time, which requires projecting the multiple-type data to the single type. To analyze impacts of such projection methods on the estimates, we compared estimating one type at a time using different projection methods with estimating all types together. We simulated genotyped data with chosen parameter values for two HPV types and analyzed the identifiability of the chosen values using the different estimation methods. We found the success of estimating one type at a time to be excessively sensitive to the data projection method, with potential to falsely identify the parameters at wrong values. Estimating all types together identified the parameters well. Our results were consistent both when trial and population level data were used. In conclusion, the potential confounding by multi-type infections has to be considered when choosing an estimation method for type-specific natural history parameters.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000256HPVNatural historyMathematical modelingModel calibrationParameter identifiability |
| spellingShingle | Anna Suomenrinne-Nordvik Simopekka Vänskä The confounding effect of multi-type human papillomavirus infections on type-specific natural history parameter identification Epidemics HPV Natural history Mathematical modeling Model calibration Parameter identifiability |
| title | The confounding effect of multi-type human papillomavirus infections on type-specific natural history parameter identification |
| title_full | The confounding effect of multi-type human papillomavirus infections on type-specific natural history parameter identification |
| title_fullStr | The confounding effect of multi-type human papillomavirus infections on type-specific natural history parameter identification |
| title_full_unstemmed | The confounding effect of multi-type human papillomavirus infections on type-specific natural history parameter identification |
| title_short | The confounding effect of multi-type human papillomavirus infections on type-specific natural history parameter identification |
| title_sort | confounding effect of multi type human papillomavirus infections on type specific natural history parameter identification |
| topic | HPV Natural history Mathematical modeling Model calibration Parameter identifiability |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000256 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT annasuomenrinnenordvik theconfoundingeffectofmultitypehumanpapillomavirusinfectionsontypespecificnaturalhistoryparameteridentification AT simopekkavanska theconfoundingeffectofmultitypehumanpapillomavirusinfectionsontypespecificnaturalhistoryparameteridentification AT annasuomenrinnenordvik confoundingeffectofmultitypehumanpapillomavirusinfectionsontypespecificnaturalhistoryparameteridentification AT simopekkavanska confoundingeffectofmultitypehumanpapillomavirusinfectionsontypespecificnaturalhistoryparameteridentification |