An epidemiological model for mosquito host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus
Abstract We extend a previously developed epidemiological model for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in humans in Greece, employing laboratory-confirmed WNV cases and mosquito-specific characteristics of transmission, such as host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of the virus. Host se...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-24527-5 |
| _version_ | 1797984063201476608 |
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| author | Augusto Fasano Nicola Riccetti Anastasia Angelou Jaime Gomez-Ramirez Federico Ferraccioli Ioannis Kioutsioukis Nikolaos I. Stilianakis |
| author_facet | Augusto Fasano Nicola Riccetti Anastasia Angelou Jaime Gomez-Ramirez Federico Ferraccioli Ioannis Kioutsioukis Nikolaos I. Stilianakis |
| author_sort | Augusto Fasano |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We extend a previously developed epidemiological model for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in humans in Greece, employing laboratory-confirmed WNV cases and mosquito-specific characteristics of transmission, such as host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of the virus. Host selection was defined by bird host selection and human host selection, the latter accounting only for the fraction of humans that develop symptoms after the virus is acquired. To model the role of temperature on virus transmission, we considered five temperature intervals (≤ 19.25 °C; > 19.25 and < 21.75 °C; ≥ 21.75 and < 24.25 °C; ≥ 24.25 and < 26.75 °C; and > 26.75 °C). The capacity of the new model to fit human cases and the week of first case occurrence was compared with the original model and showed improved performance. The model was also used to infer further quantities of interest, such as the force of infection for different temperatures as well as mosquito and bird abundances. Our results indicate that the inclusion of mosquito-specific characteristics in epidemiological models of mosquito-borne diseases leads to improved modelling capacity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T06:56:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5ba39ae1c4c14f478ab8c41bc56290b9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T06:56:41Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-5ba39ae1c4c14f478ab8c41bc56290b92022-12-22T04:39:00ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-11-0112111410.1038/s41598-022-24527-5An epidemiological model for mosquito host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virusAugusto Fasano0Nicola Riccetti1Anastasia Angelou2Jaime Gomez-Ramirez3Federico Ferraccioli4Ioannis Kioutsioukis5Nikolaos I. Stilianakis6Joint Research Centre (JRC), European CommissionJoint Research Centre (JRC), European CommissionDepartment of Physics, University of PatrasJoint Research Centre (JRC), European CommissionJoint Research Centre (JRC), European CommissionDepartment of Physics, University of PatrasJoint Research Centre (JRC), European CommissionAbstract We extend a previously developed epidemiological model for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in humans in Greece, employing laboratory-confirmed WNV cases and mosquito-specific characteristics of transmission, such as host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of the virus. Host selection was defined by bird host selection and human host selection, the latter accounting only for the fraction of humans that develop symptoms after the virus is acquired. To model the role of temperature on virus transmission, we considered five temperature intervals (≤ 19.25 °C; > 19.25 and < 21.75 °C; ≥ 21.75 and < 24.25 °C; ≥ 24.25 and < 26.75 °C; and > 26.75 °C). The capacity of the new model to fit human cases and the week of first case occurrence was compared with the original model and showed improved performance. The model was also used to infer further quantities of interest, such as the force of infection for different temperatures as well as mosquito and bird abundances. Our results indicate that the inclusion of mosquito-specific characteristics in epidemiological models of mosquito-borne diseases leads to improved modelling capacity.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-24527-5 |
| spellingShingle | Augusto Fasano Nicola Riccetti Anastasia Angelou Jaime Gomez-Ramirez Federico Ferraccioli Ioannis Kioutsioukis Nikolaos I. Stilianakis An epidemiological model for mosquito host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus Scientific Reports |
| title | An epidemiological model for mosquito host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus |
| title_full | An epidemiological model for mosquito host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus |
| title_fullStr | An epidemiological model for mosquito host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus |
| title_full_unstemmed | An epidemiological model for mosquito host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus |
| title_short | An epidemiological model for mosquito host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus |
| title_sort | epidemiological model for mosquito host selection and temperature dependent transmission of west nile virus |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-24527-5 |
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