Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys
Abstract Background The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis has encouraged countries to follow a set of guidelines to help them assess the need for mass drug administration and evaluate its progress. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is one of the highest priority countries in the Western Pacifi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2018-12-01
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| Series: | Tropical Medicine and Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41182-018-0123-8 |
| _version_ | 1811320445052387328 |
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| author | Alvaro Berg Soto Zhijing Xu Peter Wood Nelly Sanuku Leanne J. Robinson Christopher L. King Daniel Tisch Melinda Susapu Patricia M. Graves |
| author_facet | Alvaro Berg Soto Zhijing Xu Peter Wood Nelly Sanuku Leanne J. Robinson Christopher L. King Daniel Tisch Melinda Susapu Patricia M. Graves |
| author_sort | Alvaro Berg Soto |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis has encouraged countries to follow a set of guidelines to help them assess the need for mass drug administration and evaluate its progress. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is one of the highest priority countries in the Western Pacific for lymphatic filariasis and the site of extensive research on lymphatic filariasis and surveys of its prevalence. However, different diagnostic tests have been used and thresholds for each test are unclear. Methods We reviewed the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis reported in 295 surveys conducted in PNG between 1990 and 2014, of which 65 used more than one test. Results from different diagnostics were standardised using a set of criteria that included a model to predict antigen prevalence from microfilariae prevalence. We mapped the point location of each of these surveys and categorised their standardised prevalence estimates. Results Several predictive models were produced and investigated, including the effect of any mass drug administration and number of rounds prior to the surveys. One model was chosen based on goodness of fit parameters and used to predict antigen prevalence for surveys that tested only for microfilariae. Standardised prevalence values show that 72% of all surveys reported a prevalence above 0.05. High prevalence was situated on the coastal north, south and island regions, while the central highland area of Papua New Guinea shows low levels of prevalence. Conclusions Our study is the first to provide an explicit predictive relationship between the prevalence values based on empirical results from antigen and microfilaria tests, taking into account the occurrence of mass drug administration. This is a crucial step to combine studies to develop risk maps of lymphatic filariasis for programme planning and evaluation, as shown in the case of Papua New Guinea. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T12:59:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5c140a2152804d748d6933b6abe4b704 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1349-4147 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T12:59:31Z |
| publishDate | 2018-12-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tropical Medicine and Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-5c140a2152804d748d6933b6abe4b7042022-12-22T02:45:57ZengBMCTropical Medicine and Health1349-41472018-12-0146111110.1186/s41182-018-0123-8Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveysAlvaro Berg Soto0Zhijing Xu1Peter Wood2Nelly Sanuku3Leanne J. Robinson4Christopher L. King5Daniel Tisch6Melinda Susapu7Patricia M. Graves8Information Resources, James Cook UniversityResearch School of Population Health, Australian National UniversityCollege of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook UniversityVector Borne Diseases Unit, PNG Institute of Medical ResearchVector Borne Diseases Unit, PNG Institute of Medical ResearchSchool of Medicine and Veterans Affairs Administration, Case Western Reserve UniversityDepartment of Population and Quantitative Health Science, Case Western Reserve UniversityMalaria and Vector Borne Diseases, Public Health, Department of HealthCollege of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook UniversityAbstract Background The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis has encouraged countries to follow a set of guidelines to help them assess the need for mass drug administration and evaluate its progress. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is one of the highest priority countries in the Western Pacific for lymphatic filariasis and the site of extensive research on lymphatic filariasis and surveys of its prevalence. However, different diagnostic tests have been used and thresholds for each test are unclear. Methods We reviewed the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis reported in 295 surveys conducted in PNG between 1990 and 2014, of which 65 used more than one test. Results from different diagnostics were standardised using a set of criteria that included a model to predict antigen prevalence from microfilariae prevalence. We mapped the point location of each of these surveys and categorised their standardised prevalence estimates. Results Several predictive models were produced and investigated, including the effect of any mass drug administration and number of rounds prior to the surveys. One model was chosen based on goodness of fit parameters and used to predict antigen prevalence for surveys that tested only for microfilariae. Standardised prevalence values show that 72% of all surveys reported a prevalence above 0.05. High prevalence was situated on the coastal north, south and island regions, while the central highland area of Papua New Guinea shows low levels of prevalence. Conclusions Our study is the first to provide an explicit predictive relationship between the prevalence values based on empirical results from antigen and microfilaria tests, taking into account the occurrence of mass drug administration. This is a crucial step to combine studies to develop risk maps of lymphatic filariasis for programme planning and evaluation, as shown in the case of Papua New Guinea.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41182-018-0123-8Lymphatic filariasisPapua New GuineaPrevalencePredictive modelDiagnostic testsRisk map |
| spellingShingle | Alvaro Berg Soto Zhijing Xu Peter Wood Nelly Sanuku Leanne J. Robinson Christopher L. King Daniel Tisch Melinda Susapu Patricia M. Graves Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys Tropical Medicine and Health Lymphatic filariasis Papua New Guinea Prevalence Predictive model Diagnostic tests Risk map |
| title | Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys |
| title_full | Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys |
| title_fullStr | Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys |
| title_full_unstemmed | Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys |
| title_short | Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys |
| title_sort | combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in papua new guinea a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys |
| topic | Lymphatic filariasis Papua New Guinea Prevalence Predictive model Diagnostic tests Risk map |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41182-018-0123-8 |
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