Application of the SWAT model to assess climate and land use/cover change impacts on water balance components of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan
Hydrological models play a key role in simulating and assessing climate and land use/cover (LULC) change impacts on hydrology in a watershed. In this study, the impact of climate and LULC change was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The simulated and observed stream...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/11/3977 |
| _version_ | 1811314324566704128 |
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| author | Jamal Hassan Ougahi Shahid Karim Syed Amer Mahmood |
| author_facet | Jamal Hassan Ougahi Shahid Karim Syed Amer Mahmood |
| author_sort | Jamal Hassan Ougahi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Hydrological models play a key role in simulating and assessing climate and land use/cover (LULC) change impacts on hydrology in a watershed. In this study, the impact of climate and LULC change was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The simulated and observed streamflow showed a good agreement. Both Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were found to be greater than 0.7 during the calibration (1985–2002) and validation (2003–2012) period. The water balance components were simulated with inputs from downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) data (i.e., future scenario (2030–2100) relative to a baseline period (1974–2004)) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and hypothetical generated LULC change scenarios. All GCMs projected an increase in temperature over the Kabul River Basin (KRB), whereas there was a lack of agreement on projected precipitation among GCMs under both emission and future scenarios. Water yield (WYLD) and evapotranspiration (ET) were projected to decrease in the 21st century. Average annual WYLD was projected to increase under the agriculture-dominant scenario, whereas it decreased under forest and grassland-dominant scenarios. These results are valuable for relevant agencies and stakeholders to adopt measures to counter the negative impacts of climate and LULC change on water resources.
HIGHLIGHTS
The projected temperature consistently increases in the 21st century.;
Most of the GCMs projected a decrease in annual and winter precipitation in the KRB.;
The simulated water balance components show a higher impact by climate than LULC change scenarios.;
The water yield was increased under the agriculture-dominant scenario, whereas it decreased under forest and grassland-dominant scenarios.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T11:09:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5c3e9fcf300c425193d9478fa67425c1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2040-2244 2408-9354 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T11:09:45Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| spelling | doaj.art-5c3e9fcf300c425193d9478fa67425c12022-12-22T02:49:09ZengIWA PublishingJournal of Water and Climate Change2040-22442408-93542022-11-0113113977399910.2166/wcc.2022.261261Application of the SWAT model to assess climate and land use/cover change impacts on water balance components of the Kabul River Basin, AfghanistanJamal Hassan Ougahi0Shahid Karim1Syed Amer Mahmood2 Geography & Environmental Science, School of Social Sciences, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland, UK Department of Geography, Government College University, Lahore, Pakistan Department of Space Science, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan Hydrological models play a key role in simulating and assessing climate and land use/cover (LULC) change impacts on hydrology in a watershed. In this study, the impact of climate and LULC change was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The simulated and observed streamflow showed a good agreement. Both Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were found to be greater than 0.7 during the calibration (1985–2002) and validation (2003–2012) period. The water balance components were simulated with inputs from downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) data (i.e., future scenario (2030–2100) relative to a baseline period (1974–2004)) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and hypothetical generated LULC change scenarios. All GCMs projected an increase in temperature over the Kabul River Basin (KRB), whereas there was a lack of agreement on projected precipitation among GCMs under both emission and future scenarios. Water yield (WYLD) and evapotranspiration (ET) were projected to decrease in the 21st century. Average annual WYLD was projected to increase under the agriculture-dominant scenario, whereas it decreased under forest and grassland-dominant scenarios. These results are valuable for relevant agencies and stakeholders to adopt measures to counter the negative impacts of climate and LULC change on water resources. HIGHLIGHTS The projected temperature consistently increases in the 21st century.; Most of the GCMs projected a decrease in annual and winter precipitation in the KRB.; The simulated water balance components show a higher impact by climate than LULC change scenarios.; The water yield was increased under the agriculture-dominant scenario, whereas it decreased under forest and grassland-dominant scenarios.;http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/11/3977climate changekabul river basinland use changeswat modelwater balance components |
| spellingShingle | Jamal Hassan Ougahi Shahid Karim Syed Amer Mahmood Application of the SWAT model to assess climate and land use/cover change impacts on water balance components of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan Journal of Water and Climate Change climate change kabul river basin land use change swat model water balance components |
| title | Application of the SWAT model to assess climate and land use/cover change impacts on water balance components of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan |
| title_full | Application of the SWAT model to assess climate and land use/cover change impacts on water balance components of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan |
| title_fullStr | Application of the SWAT model to assess climate and land use/cover change impacts on water balance components of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Application of the SWAT model to assess climate and land use/cover change impacts on water balance components of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan |
| title_short | Application of the SWAT model to assess climate and land use/cover change impacts on water balance components of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan |
| title_sort | application of the swat model to assess climate and land use cover change impacts on water balance components of the kabul river basin afghanistan |
| topic | climate change kabul river basin land use change swat model water balance components |
| url | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/11/3977 |
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