Change points of global temperature
We aim to address the question of whether or not there is a significant recent ‘hiatus’, ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ of global temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known as change point (CP) analysis we identify the changes in four global temperature records and estimate the rates of temperatur...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084002 |
| _version_ | 1797748690684739584 |
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| author | Niamh Cahill Stefan Rahmstorf Andrew C Parnell |
| author_facet | Niamh Cahill Stefan Rahmstorf Andrew C Parnell |
| author_sort | Niamh Cahill |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We aim to address the question of whether or not there is a significant recent ‘hiatus’, ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ of global temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known as change point (CP) analysis we identify the changes in four global temperature records and estimate the rates of temperature rise before and after these changes occur. For each record the results indicate that three CPs are enough to accurately capture the variability in the data with no evidence of any detectable change in the global warming trend since ∼1970. We conclude that the term ‘hiatus’ or ‘pause’ cannot be statistically justified. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:09:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5c5b61fdcb164c0dae8056e35368ac08 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:09:27Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-5c5b61fdcb164c0dae8056e35368ac082023-08-09T14:13:05ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262015-01-0110808400210.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084002Change points of global temperatureNiamh Cahill0Stefan Rahmstorf1Andrew C Parnell2School of Mathematical Sciences, Complex & Adaptive Systems Laboratory (CASL), Earth Institute, University College Dublin, IrelandPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , GermanySchool of Mathematical Sciences, Complex & Adaptive Systems Laboratory (CASL), Earth Institute, University College Dublin, IrelandWe aim to address the question of whether or not there is a significant recent ‘hiatus’, ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ of global temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known as change point (CP) analysis we identify the changes in four global temperature records and estimate the rates of temperature rise before and after these changes occur. For each record the results indicate that three CPs are enough to accurately capture the variability in the data with no evidence of any detectable change in the global warming trend since ∼1970. We conclude that the term ‘hiatus’ or ‘pause’ cannot be statistically justified.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084002hiatuschange pointsglobal temperature |
| spellingShingle | Niamh Cahill Stefan Rahmstorf Andrew C Parnell Change points of global temperature Environmental Research Letters hiatus change points global temperature |
| title | Change points of global temperature |
| title_full | Change points of global temperature |
| title_fullStr | Change points of global temperature |
| title_full_unstemmed | Change points of global temperature |
| title_short | Change points of global temperature |
| title_sort | change points of global temperature |
| topic | hiatus change points global temperature |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084002 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT niamhcahill changepointsofglobaltemperature AT stefanrahmstorf changepointsofglobaltemperature AT andrewcparnell changepointsofglobaltemperature |