Contribution of anthropogenic, vegetation, and topographic features to forest fire occurrence in Poland
Climate is one of the main causes of forest fires in Europe. In addition, forest fires are influenced by other factors, such as the reconstruction of tree stands with a uniform species composition and increasing human pressure. At the same time, the increasing number of fires is accompanied by a ste...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Italian Society of Silviculture and Forest Ecology (SISEF)
2022-08-01
|
| Series: | iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://iforest.sisef.org/contents/?id=ifor4052-015 |
| _version_ | 1818497083078868992 |
|---|---|
| author | Ciesielski M Balazy R Borkowski B Szczesny W Zasada M Kaczmarowski J Kwiatkowski M Szczygiel R Milanovic S |
| author_facet | Ciesielski M Balazy R Borkowski B Szczesny W Zasada M Kaczmarowski J Kwiatkowski M Szczygiel R Milanovic S |
| author_sort | Ciesielski M |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate is one of the main causes of forest fires in Europe. In addition, forest fires are influenced by other factors, such as the reconstruction of tree stands with a uniform species composition and increasing human pressure. At the same time, the increasing number of fires is accompanied by a steady increase in the number and quality of spatial information collected, which affects the ability to conduct more accurate studies of forest fires. The appropriate use of spatial information systems (GIS) together with all the collected information on fires could provide new insights into their causes and, in further steps, allow the development of new, more accurate predictive models. The objectives of the study were: (i) to estimate the probability of fire occurrence in the period 2007-2016; (ii) to evaluate the performance of the developed model; (iii) to identify and quantify anthropogenic, topographic and stand factors affecting the probability of fire occurrence in forest areas in Poland. To achieve these objectives, a statistical model based on a logistic regression approach was built using the nationwide forest fire database for the period from 2007 to 2016. The information in the database was obtained from the Polish State Forest Information System (SILP). Then it was supplemented with spatial, topographic and socio-economic information from various spatial and statistical databases. The results showed that fire probability is significantly positively affected by population density and distance from buildings. In addition, the further the distance from roads and railways, watercourses and water objects or the edge of the forest, height above sea level, and steep slopes, the lower is the fire probability. Analysis of spatial, ecological and socio-economic factors provides new insights that contribute to a better understanding of fire occurrence in Poland. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T18:40:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5c7475fae26644acba8fba95bc37fb1a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1971-7458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T18:40:55Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Italian Society of Silviculture and Forest Ecology (SISEF) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry |
| spelling | doaj.art-5c7475fae26644acba8fba95bc37fb1a2022-12-22T01:37:39ZengItalian Society of Silviculture and Forest Ecology (SISEF)iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry1971-74582022-08-0115130731410.3832/ifor4052-0154052Contribution of anthropogenic, vegetation, and topographic features to forest fire occurrence in PolandCiesielski M0Balazy R1Borkowski B2Szczesny W3Zasada M4Kaczmarowski J5Kwiatkowski M6Szczygiel R7Milanovic S8Department of Geomatics, Forest Research Institute, Sekocin Stary ul. Braci Lesnej 3, 05090 Raszyn - PolandPrevent Fires Foundation, Warszawa, ul. Drawska 29A/56, 02-202 Warszawa - PolandDepartment of Econometrics and Statistics, Institute of Economy and Finances, Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW - PolandDepartment of Applied Informatics, Institute of Information Technology, Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW - PolandDepartment of Forest Management, Dendrometry and Forest Economics, Institute of Forest Sciences, Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW - PolandGeneral Directorate of the State Forests, ul. Grójecka 127, 02-124 Warszawa - PolandForest Fire Protection Laboratory, Forest Research Institute, Sekocin Stary, ul. Braci Lesnej 3, 05-090 Raszyn - PolandForest Fire Protection Laboratory, Forest Research Institute, Sekocin Stary, ul. Braci Lesnej 3, 05-090 Raszyn - PolandChair of Forest Protection, University of Belgrade Faculty of Forestry, 11030 Belgrade - SerbiaClimate is one of the main causes of forest fires in Europe. In addition, forest fires are influenced by other factors, such as the reconstruction of tree stands with a uniform species composition and increasing human pressure. At the same time, the increasing number of fires is accompanied by a steady increase in the number and quality of spatial information collected, which affects the ability to conduct more accurate studies of forest fires. The appropriate use of spatial information systems (GIS) together with all the collected information on fires could provide new insights into their causes and, in further steps, allow the development of new, more accurate predictive models. The objectives of the study were: (i) to estimate the probability of fire occurrence in the period 2007-2016; (ii) to evaluate the performance of the developed model; (iii) to identify and quantify anthropogenic, topographic and stand factors affecting the probability of fire occurrence in forest areas in Poland. To achieve these objectives, a statistical model based on a logistic regression approach was built using the nationwide forest fire database for the period from 2007 to 2016. The information in the database was obtained from the Polish State Forest Information System (SILP). Then it was supplemented with spatial, topographic and socio-economic information from various spatial and statistical databases. The results showed that fire probability is significantly positively affected by population density and distance from buildings. In addition, the further the distance from roads and railways, watercourses and water objects or the edge of the forest, height above sea level, and steep slopes, the lower is the fire probability. Analysis of spatial, ecological and socio-economic factors provides new insights that contribute to a better understanding of fire occurrence in Poland.https://iforest.sisef.org/contents/?id=ifor4052-015Forest FiresLogistic RegressionVariables SelectionAnthropogenic Factors |
| spellingShingle | Ciesielski M Balazy R Borkowski B Szczesny W Zasada M Kaczmarowski J Kwiatkowski M Szczygiel R Milanovic S Contribution of anthropogenic, vegetation, and topographic features to forest fire occurrence in Poland iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry Forest Fires Logistic Regression Variables Selection Anthropogenic Factors |
| title | Contribution of anthropogenic, vegetation, and topographic features to forest fire occurrence in Poland |
| title_full | Contribution of anthropogenic, vegetation, and topographic features to forest fire occurrence in Poland |
| title_fullStr | Contribution of anthropogenic, vegetation, and topographic features to forest fire occurrence in Poland |
| title_full_unstemmed | Contribution of anthropogenic, vegetation, and topographic features to forest fire occurrence in Poland |
| title_short | Contribution of anthropogenic, vegetation, and topographic features to forest fire occurrence in Poland |
| title_sort | contribution of anthropogenic vegetation and topographic features to forest fire occurrence in poland |
| topic | Forest Fires Logistic Regression Variables Selection Anthropogenic Factors |
| url | https://iforest.sisef.org/contents/?id=ifor4052-015 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ciesielskim contributionofanthropogenicvegetationandtopographicfeaturestoforestfireoccurrenceinpoland AT balazyr contributionofanthropogenicvegetationandtopographicfeaturestoforestfireoccurrenceinpoland AT borkowskib contributionofanthropogenicvegetationandtopographicfeaturestoforestfireoccurrenceinpoland AT szczesnyw contributionofanthropogenicvegetationandtopographicfeaturestoforestfireoccurrenceinpoland AT zasadam contributionofanthropogenicvegetationandtopographicfeaturestoforestfireoccurrenceinpoland AT kaczmarowskij contributionofanthropogenicvegetationandtopographicfeaturestoforestfireoccurrenceinpoland AT kwiatkowskim contributionofanthropogenicvegetationandtopographicfeaturestoforestfireoccurrenceinpoland AT szczygielr contributionofanthropogenicvegetationandtopographicfeaturestoforestfireoccurrenceinpoland AT milanovics contributionofanthropogenicvegetationandtopographicfeaturestoforestfireoccurrenceinpoland |