Uncertainties in wave-driven longshore sediment transport projections presented by a dynamic CMIP6-based ensemble
In this study four experiments were conducted to investigate uncertainty in future longshore sediment transport (LST) projections due to: working with continuous time series of CSIRO CMIP6-driven waves (experiment #1) or sliced time series of waves from CSIRO-CMIP6-Ws and CSIRO-CMIP5-Ws (experiment...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1188136/full |
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| author | Amin Reza Zarifsanayei Amin Reza Zarifsanayei José A. A. Antolínez Nick Cartwright Nick Cartwright Amir Etemad-Shahidi Amir Etemad-Shahidi Amir Etemad-Shahidi Darrell Strauss Gil Lemos Alvaro Semedo Rajesh Kumar Mikhail Dobrynin Adem Akpinar |
| author_facet | Amin Reza Zarifsanayei Amin Reza Zarifsanayei José A. A. Antolínez Nick Cartwright Nick Cartwright Amir Etemad-Shahidi Amir Etemad-Shahidi Amir Etemad-Shahidi Darrell Strauss Gil Lemos Alvaro Semedo Rajesh Kumar Mikhail Dobrynin Adem Akpinar |
| author_sort | Amin Reza Zarifsanayei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study four experiments were conducted to investigate uncertainty in future longshore sediment transport (LST) projections due to: working with continuous time series of CSIRO CMIP6-driven waves (experiment #1) or sliced time series of waves from CSIRO-CMIP6-Ws and CSIRO-CMIP5-Ws (experiment #2); different wave-model-parametrization pairs to generate wave projections (experiment #3); and the inclusion/exclusion of sea level rise (SLR) for wave transformation (experiment #4). For each experiment, a weighted ensemble consisting of offshore wave forcing conditions, a surrogate model for nearshore wave transformation and eight LST models was used. The results of experiment # 1 indicated that the annual LST rates obtained from a continuous time series of waves were influenced by climate variability acting on timescales of 20-30 years. Uncertainty decomposition clearly reveals that for near-future coastal planning, a large part of the uncertainty arises from model selection and natural variability of the system (e.g., on average, 4% scenario, 57% model, and 39% internal variability). For the far future, the total uncertainty consists of 25% scenario, 54% model and 21% internal variability. Experiment #2 indicates that CMIP6 driven wave climatology yield similar outcomes to CMIP5 driven wave climatology in that LST rates decrease along the study area’s coast by less than 10%. The results of experiment #3 indicate that intra- and inter-annual variability of LST rates are influenced by the parameterization schemes of the wave simulations. This can increase the range of uncertainty in the LST projections and at the same time can limit the robustness of the projections. The inclusion of SLR (experiment #4) in wave transformation, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, yields only meagre changes in the LST projections, compared to the case no SLR. However, it is noted that future research on SLR influence should include potential changes in nearshore profile shapes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T14:04:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5cce9b91cc844c25a3ac921d984e0469 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-7745 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T14:04:44Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-5cce9b91cc844c25a3ac921d984e04692023-08-21T15:39:56ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Marine Science2296-77452023-08-011010.3389/fmars.2023.11881361188136Uncertainties in wave-driven longshore sediment transport projections presented by a dynamic CMIP6-based ensembleAmin Reza Zarifsanayei0Amin Reza Zarifsanayei1José A. A. Antolínez2Nick Cartwright3Nick Cartwright4Amir Etemad-Shahidi5Amir Etemad-Shahidi6Amir Etemad-Shahidi7Darrell Strauss8Gil Lemos9Alvaro Semedo10Rajesh Kumar11Mikhail Dobrynin12Adem Akpinar13School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, AustraliaCoastal and Marine Research Centre (CMRC), Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, AustraliaDepartment of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, NetherlandsSchool of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, AustraliaCoastal and Marine Research Centre (CMRC), Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, AustraliaSchool of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, AustraliaCoastal and Marine Research Centre (CMRC), Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, AustraliaSchool of Engineering, Edith Cowan University, Perth, WA, AustraliaCoastal and Marine Research Centre (CMRC), Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, AustraliaUniversidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisboa, PortugalIHE Delft, Department of Coastal, Urban Risk and Resilience, Delft, NetherlandsCentre for Climate Research Singapore, Singapore, SingaporeDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Hamburg, GermanyDepartment of Civil Engineering, Bursa Uludag University, Bursa, TürkiyeIn this study four experiments were conducted to investigate uncertainty in future longshore sediment transport (LST) projections due to: working with continuous time series of CSIRO CMIP6-driven waves (experiment #1) or sliced time series of waves from CSIRO-CMIP6-Ws and CSIRO-CMIP5-Ws (experiment #2); different wave-model-parametrization pairs to generate wave projections (experiment #3); and the inclusion/exclusion of sea level rise (SLR) for wave transformation (experiment #4). For each experiment, a weighted ensemble consisting of offshore wave forcing conditions, a surrogate model for nearshore wave transformation and eight LST models was used. The results of experiment # 1 indicated that the annual LST rates obtained from a continuous time series of waves were influenced by climate variability acting on timescales of 20-30 years. Uncertainty decomposition clearly reveals that for near-future coastal planning, a large part of the uncertainty arises from model selection and natural variability of the system (e.g., on average, 4% scenario, 57% model, and 39% internal variability). For the far future, the total uncertainty consists of 25% scenario, 54% model and 21% internal variability. Experiment #2 indicates that CMIP6 driven wave climatology yield similar outcomes to CMIP5 driven wave climatology in that LST rates decrease along the study area’s coast by less than 10%. The results of experiment #3 indicate that intra- and inter-annual variability of LST rates are influenced by the parameterization schemes of the wave simulations. This can increase the range of uncertainty in the LST projections and at the same time can limit the robustness of the projections. The inclusion of SLR (experiment #4) in wave transformation, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, yields only meagre changes in the LST projections, compared to the case no SLR. However, it is noted that future research on SLR influence should include potential changes in nearshore profile shapes.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1188136/fulluncertainty in LST projectionsclimate changeCMIP6 CSIRO wave projectionsensemble modellingcoastal evolution |
| spellingShingle | Amin Reza Zarifsanayei Amin Reza Zarifsanayei José A. A. Antolínez Nick Cartwright Nick Cartwright Amir Etemad-Shahidi Amir Etemad-Shahidi Amir Etemad-Shahidi Darrell Strauss Gil Lemos Alvaro Semedo Rajesh Kumar Mikhail Dobrynin Adem Akpinar Uncertainties in wave-driven longshore sediment transport projections presented by a dynamic CMIP6-based ensemble Frontiers in Marine Science uncertainty in LST projections climate change CMIP6 CSIRO wave projections ensemble modelling coastal evolution |
| title | Uncertainties in wave-driven longshore sediment transport projections presented by a dynamic CMIP6-based ensemble |
| title_full | Uncertainties in wave-driven longshore sediment transport projections presented by a dynamic CMIP6-based ensemble |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainties in wave-driven longshore sediment transport projections presented by a dynamic CMIP6-based ensemble |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainties in wave-driven longshore sediment transport projections presented by a dynamic CMIP6-based ensemble |
| title_short | Uncertainties in wave-driven longshore sediment transport projections presented by a dynamic CMIP6-based ensemble |
| title_sort | uncertainties in wave driven longshore sediment transport projections presented by a dynamic cmip6 based ensemble |
| topic | uncertainty in LST projections climate change CMIP6 CSIRO wave projections ensemble modelling coastal evolution |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1188136/full |
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