Sub-national tailoring of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Mali based on malaria surveillance and rainfall data
Abstract Background In malaria endemic countries, seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) interventions are performed during the high malaria transmission in accordance with epidemiological surveillance data. In this study we propose a predictive approach for tailoring the timing and number of cycles...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Parasites & Vectors |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-022-05379-4 |
| _version_ | 1811315401175334912 |
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| author | Mady Cissoko Issaka Sagara Jordi Landier Abdoulaye Guindo Vincent Sanogo Oumou Yacouba Coulibaly Pascal Dembélé Sokhna Dieng Cedric S. Bationo Issa Diarra Mahamadou H. Magassa Ibrahima Berthé Abdoulaye Katilé Diahara Traoré Nadine Dessay Jean Gaudart |
| author_facet | Mady Cissoko Issaka Sagara Jordi Landier Abdoulaye Guindo Vincent Sanogo Oumou Yacouba Coulibaly Pascal Dembélé Sokhna Dieng Cedric S. Bationo Issa Diarra Mahamadou H. Magassa Ibrahima Berthé Abdoulaye Katilé Diahara Traoré Nadine Dessay Jean Gaudart |
| author_sort | Mady Cissoko |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background In malaria endemic countries, seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) interventions are performed during the high malaria transmission in accordance with epidemiological surveillance data. In this study we propose a predictive approach for tailoring the timing and number of cycles of SMC in all health districts of Mali based on sub-national epidemiological surveillance and rainfall data. Our primary objective was to select the best of two approaches for predicting the onset of the high transmission season at the operational scale. Our secondary objective was to evaluate the number of malaria cases, hospitalisations and deaths in children under 5 years of age that would be prevented annually and the additional cost that would be incurred using the best approach. Methods For each of the 75 health districts of Mali over the study period (2014–2019), we determined (1) the onset of the rainy season period based on weekly rainfall data; (ii) the onset and duration of the high transmission season using change point analysis of weekly incidence data; and (iii) the lag between the onset of the rainy season and the onset of the high transmission. Two approaches for predicting the onset of the high transmission season in 2019 were evaluated. Results In the study period (2014–2019), the onset of the rainy season ranged from week (W) 17 (W17; April) to W34 (August). The onset of the high transmission season ranged from W25 (June) to W40 (September). The lag between these two events ranged from 5 to 12 weeks. The duration of the high transmission season ranged from 3 to 6 months. The best of the two approaches predicted the onset of the high transmission season in 2019 to be in June in two districts, in July in 46 districts, in August in 21 districts and in September in six districts. Using our proposed approach would prevent 43,819 cases, 1943 hospitalisations and 70 deaths in children under 5 years of age annually for a minimal additional cost. Our analysis shows that the number of cycles of SMC should be changed in 36 health districts. Conclusion Adapting the timing of SMC interventions using our proposed approach could improve the prevention of malaria cases and decrease hospitalisations and deaths. Future studies should be conducted to validate this approach. Graphical Abstract |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T11:30:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5d0a596ba1ac498cb85c9e6d556ac031 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1756-3305 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T11:30:46Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Parasites & Vectors |
| spelling | doaj.art-5d0a596ba1ac498cb85c9e6d556ac0312022-12-22T02:48:35ZengBMCParasites & Vectors1756-33052022-08-0115111310.1186/s13071-022-05379-4Sub-national tailoring of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Mali based on malaria surveillance and rainfall dataMady Cissoko0Issaka Sagara1Jordi Landier2Abdoulaye Guindo3Vincent Sanogo4Oumou Yacouba Coulibaly5Pascal Dembélé6Sokhna Dieng7Cedric S. BationoIssa Diarra8Mahamadou H. Magassa9Ibrahima Berthé10Abdoulaye Katilé11Diahara Traoré12Nadine Dessay13Jean Gaudart14Malaria Research and Training Centre Ogobara K. Doumbo (MRTC-OKD), FMOS-FAPH, Mali-NIAID-ICER, Université Des Sciences, Des Techniques Et Des Technologies de BamakoMalaria Research and Training Centre Ogobara K. Doumbo (MRTC-OKD), FMOS-FAPH, Mali-NIAID-ICER, Université Des Sciences, Des Techniques Et Des Technologies de BamakoINSERM, IRD, ISSPAM, UM1252, Aix-Marseille UniversityMalaria Research and Training Centre Ogobara K. Doumbo (MRTC-OKD), FMOS-FAPH, Mali-NIAID-ICER, Université Des Sciences, Des Techniques Et Des Technologies de BamakoProgramme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP Mali)Direction Générale de la Santé et Hygiène Publique, Sous-Direction Lutte Contre la Maladie (DGSHP-SDLM)Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP Mali)INSERM, IRD, ISSPAM, UM1252, Aix-Marseille UniversityMalaria Research and Training Centre Ogobara K. Doumbo (MRTC-OKD), FMOS-FAPH, Mali-NIAID-ICER, Université Des Sciences, Des Techniques Et Des Technologies de BamakoProgramme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP Mali)Malaria Research and Training Centre Ogobara K. Doumbo (MRTC-OKD), FMOS-FAPH, Mali-NIAID-ICER, Université Des Sciences, Des Techniques Et Des Technologies de BamakoMalaria Research and Training Centre Ogobara K. Doumbo (MRTC-OKD), FMOS-FAPH, Mali-NIAID-ICER, Université Des Sciences, Des Techniques Et Des Technologies de BamakoProgramme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP Mali)ESPACE-DEV, UMR228, IRD/UM/UR/UG/UA, Institut de Recherche Pour le Développement (IRD) FranceMalaria Research and Training Centre Ogobara K. Doumbo (MRTC-OKD), FMOS-FAPH, Mali-NIAID-ICER, Université Des Sciences, Des Techniques Et Des Technologies de BamakoAbstract Background In malaria endemic countries, seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) interventions are performed during the high malaria transmission in accordance with epidemiological surveillance data. In this study we propose a predictive approach for tailoring the timing and number of cycles of SMC in all health districts of Mali based on sub-national epidemiological surveillance and rainfall data. Our primary objective was to select the best of two approaches for predicting the onset of the high transmission season at the operational scale. Our secondary objective was to evaluate the number of malaria cases, hospitalisations and deaths in children under 5 years of age that would be prevented annually and the additional cost that would be incurred using the best approach. Methods For each of the 75 health districts of Mali over the study period (2014–2019), we determined (1) the onset of the rainy season period based on weekly rainfall data; (ii) the onset and duration of the high transmission season using change point analysis of weekly incidence data; and (iii) the lag between the onset of the rainy season and the onset of the high transmission. Two approaches for predicting the onset of the high transmission season in 2019 were evaluated. Results In the study period (2014–2019), the onset of the rainy season ranged from week (W) 17 (W17; April) to W34 (August). The onset of the high transmission season ranged from W25 (June) to W40 (September). The lag between these two events ranged from 5 to 12 weeks. The duration of the high transmission season ranged from 3 to 6 months. The best of the two approaches predicted the onset of the high transmission season in 2019 to be in June in two districts, in July in 46 districts, in August in 21 districts and in September in six districts. Using our proposed approach would prevent 43,819 cases, 1943 hospitalisations and 70 deaths in children under 5 years of age annually for a minimal additional cost. Our analysis shows that the number of cycles of SMC should be changed in 36 health districts. Conclusion Adapting the timing of SMC interventions using our proposed approach could improve the prevention of malaria cases and decrease hospitalisations and deaths. Future studies should be conducted to validate this approach. Graphical Abstracthttps://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-022-05379-4MalariaHigh transmission seasonRainfallSub-nationalTailoring |
| spellingShingle | Mady Cissoko Issaka Sagara Jordi Landier Abdoulaye Guindo Vincent Sanogo Oumou Yacouba Coulibaly Pascal Dembélé Sokhna Dieng Cedric S. Bationo Issa Diarra Mahamadou H. Magassa Ibrahima Berthé Abdoulaye Katilé Diahara Traoré Nadine Dessay Jean Gaudart Sub-national tailoring of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Mali based on malaria surveillance and rainfall data Parasites & Vectors Malaria High transmission season Rainfall Sub-national Tailoring |
| title | Sub-national tailoring of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Mali based on malaria surveillance and rainfall data |
| title_full | Sub-national tailoring of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Mali based on malaria surveillance and rainfall data |
| title_fullStr | Sub-national tailoring of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Mali based on malaria surveillance and rainfall data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sub-national tailoring of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Mali based on malaria surveillance and rainfall data |
| title_short | Sub-national tailoring of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Mali based on malaria surveillance and rainfall data |
| title_sort | sub national tailoring of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in mali based on malaria surveillance and rainfall data |
| topic | Malaria High transmission season Rainfall Sub-national Tailoring |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-022-05379-4 |
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