Workflows for Construction of Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Maps for Volcanic Hazard Assessment
Probabilistic hazard assessments for studying overland pyroclastic flows or atmospheric ash clouds under short timelines of an evolving crisis, require using the best science available unhampered by complicated and slow manual workflows. Although deterministic mathematical models are available, in m...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.744655/full |
| _version_ | 1818966242358198272 |
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| author | Renette Jones-Ivey Abani Patra Marcus Bursik |
| author_facet | Renette Jones-Ivey Abani Patra Marcus Bursik |
| author_sort | Renette Jones-Ivey |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Probabilistic hazard assessments for studying overland pyroclastic flows or atmospheric ash clouds under short timelines of an evolving crisis, require using the best science available unhampered by complicated and slow manual workflows. Although deterministic mathematical models are available, in most cases, parameters and initial conditions for the equations are usually only known within a prescribed range of uncertainty. For the construction of probabilistic hazard assessments, accurate outputs and propagation of the inherent input uncertainty to quantities of interest are needed to estimate necessary probabilities based on numerous runs of the underlying deterministic model. Characterizing the uncertainty in system states due to parametric and input uncertainty, simultaneously, requires using ensemble based methods to explore the full parameter and input spaces. Complex tasks, such as running thousands of instances of a deterministic model with parameter and input uncertainty require a High Performance Computing infrastructure and skilled personnel that may not be readily available to the policy makers responsible for making informed risk mitigation decisions. For efficiency, programming tasks required for executing ensemble simulations need to run in parallel, leading to twin computational challenges of managing large amounts of data and performing CPU intensive processing. The resulting flow of work requires complex sequences of tasks, interactions, and exchanges of data, hence the automatic management of these workflows are essential. Here we discuss a computer infrastructure, methodology and tools which enable scientists and other members of the volcanology research community to develop workflows for construction of probabilistic hazard maps using remotely accessed computing through a web portal. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T13:29:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5db3e997d4734975a8ca7205c499527e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-6463 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T13:29:47Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-5db3e997d4734975a8ca7205c499527e2022-12-21T19:39:09ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Earth Science2296-64632022-01-01910.3389/feart.2021.744655744655Workflows for Construction of Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Maps for Volcanic Hazard AssessmentRenette Jones-Ivey0Abani Patra1Marcus Bursik2Institute for Computational and Data Sciences, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United StatesData Intensive Studies Center (DISC), Tufts University, Medford, MA, United StatesCenter for Geohazards Studies, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United StatesProbabilistic hazard assessments for studying overland pyroclastic flows or atmospheric ash clouds under short timelines of an evolving crisis, require using the best science available unhampered by complicated and slow manual workflows. Although deterministic mathematical models are available, in most cases, parameters and initial conditions for the equations are usually only known within a prescribed range of uncertainty. For the construction of probabilistic hazard assessments, accurate outputs and propagation of the inherent input uncertainty to quantities of interest are needed to estimate necessary probabilities based on numerous runs of the underlying deterministic model. Characterizing the uncertainty in system states due to parametric and input uncertainty, simultaneously, requires using ensemble based methods to explore the full parameter and input spaces. Complex tasks, such as running thousands of instances of a deterministic model with parameter and input uncertainty require a High Performance Computing infrastructure and skilled personnel that may not be readily available to the policy makers responsible for making informed risk mitigation decisions. For efficiency, programming tasks required for executing ensemble simulations need to run in parallel, leading to twin computational challenges of managing large amounts of data and performing CPU intensive processing. The resulting flow of work requires complex sequences of tasks, interactions, and exchanges of data, hence the automatic management of these workflows are essential. Here we discuss a computer infrastructure, methodology and tools which enable scientists and other members of the volcanology research community to develop workflows for construction of probabilistic hazard maps using remotely accessed computing through a web portal.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.744655/fulluncertainty quantificationvolcanologyhazard mappingvolcanic hazard assessmentPegasus Workflow Management Systemash cloud |
| spellingShingle | Renette Jones-Ivey Abani Patra Marcus Bursik Workflows for Construction of Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Maps for Volcanic Hazard Assessment Frontiers in Earth Science uncertainty quantification volcanology hazard mapping volcanic hazard assessment Pegasus Workflow Management System ash cloud |
| title | Workflows for Construction of Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Maps for Volcanic Hazard Assessment |
| title_full | Workflows for Construction of Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Maps for Volcanic Hazard Assessment |
| title_fullStr | Workflows for Construction of Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Maps for Volcanic Hazard Assessment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Workflows for Construction of Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Maps for Volcanic Hazard Assessment |
| title_short | Workflows for Construction of Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Maps for Volcanic Hazard Assessment |
| title_sort | workflows for construction of spatio temporal probabilistic maps for volcanic hazard assessment |
| topic | uncertainty quantification volcanology hazard mapping volcanic hazard assessment Pegasus Workflow Management System ash cloud |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.744655/full |
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