Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050
Abstract Understanding the impact of climate change on runoff is essential for effective water resource management and planning. In this study, the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4.5 was used to dynamically downscale near-future climate projections from two global climate models to a 50-km horizo...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2021-05-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88135-5 |
| _version_ | 1819042407626309632 |
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| author | Ya Huang Weihua Xiao Baodeng Hou Yuyan Zhou Guibing Hou Ling Yi Hao Cui |
| author_facet | Ya Huang Weihua Xiao Baodeng Hou Yuyan Zhou Guibing Hou Ling Yi Hao Cui |
| author_sort | Ya Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Understanding the impact of climate change on runoff is essential for effective water resource management and planning. In this study, the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4.5 was used to dynamically downscale near-future climate projections from two global climate models to a 50-km horizontal resolution over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River (UYRB). Based on the bias-corrected climate projection results, the impacts of climate change on mid-twenty-first century precipitation and temperature in the UYRB were assessed. Then, through the coupling of a large-scale hydrological model with RegCM4.5, the impacts of climate change on river flows at the outlets of the UYRB were assessed. According to the projections, the eastern UYRB will tend to be warm-dry in the near-future relative to the reference period, whereas the western UYRB will tend to be warm-humid. Precipitation will decreases at a rate of 19.05–19.25 mm/10 a, and the multiyear average annual precipitation will vary between − 0.5 and 0.5 mm/day. Temperature is projected to increases significantly at a rate of 0.38–0.52 °C/10 a, and the projected multiyear average air temperature increase is approximately 1.3–1.5 ℃. The contribution of snowmelt runoff to the annual runoff in the UYBR is only approximately 4%, whereas that to the spring runoff is approximately 9.2%. Affected by climate warming, the annual average snowmelt runoff in the basin will be reduced by 36–39%, whereas the total annual runoff will be reduced by 4.1–5%, and the extreme runoff will be slightly reduced. Areas of projected decreased runoff depth are mainly concentrated in the southeast region of the basin. The decrease in precipitation is driving this decrease in the southeast, whereas the decreased runoff depth in the northwest is mainly driven by the increase in evaporation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T09:40:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5e260b0d66894048bd04b113d7438682 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T09:40:24Z |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-5e260b0d66894048bd04b113d74386822022-12-21T19:08:28ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222021-05-0111112110.1038/s41598-021-88135-5Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050Ya Huang0Weihua Xiao1Baodeng Hou2Yuyan Zhou3Guibing Hou4Ling Yi5Hao Cui6State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Catchment, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Catchment, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Catchment, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Catchment, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchChina Water Resources Pearl River Planning, Surveying & Designing Co., Ltd.China Water Resources Pearl River Planning, Surveying & Designing Co., Ltd.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Catchment, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchAbstract Understanding the impact of climate change on runoff is essential for effective water resource management and planning. In this study, the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4.5 was used to dynamically downscale near-future climate projections from two global climate models to a 50-km horizontal resolution over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River (UYRB). Based on the bias-corrected climate projection results, the impacts of climate change on mid-twenty-first century precipitation and temperature in the UYRB were assessed. Then, through the coupling of a large-scale hydrological model with RegCM4.5, the impacts of climate change on river flows at the outlets of the UYRB were assessed. According to the projections, the eastern UYRB will tend to be warm-dry in the near-future relative to the reference period, whereas the western UYRB will tend to be warm-humid. Precipitation will decreases at a rate of 19.05–19.25 mm/10 a, and the multiyear average annual precipitation will vary between − 0.5 and 0.5 mm/day. Temperature is projected to increases significantly at a rate of 0.38–0.52 °C/10 a, and the projected multiyear average air temperature increase is approximately 1.3–1.5 ℃. The contribution of snowmelt runoff to the annual runoff in the UYBR is only approximately 4%, whereas that to the spring runoff is approximately 9.2%. Affected by climate warming, the annual average snowmelt runoff in the basin will be reduced by 36–39%, whereas the total annual runoff will be reduced by 4.1–5%, and the extreme runoff will be slightly reduced. Areas of projected decreased runoff depth are mainly concentrated in the southeast region of the basin. The decrease in precipitation is driving this decrease in the southeast, whereas the decreased runoff depth in the northwest is mainly driven by the increase in evaporation.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88135-5 |
| spellingShingle | Ya Huang Weihua Xiao Baodeng Hou Yuyan Zhou Guibing Hou Ling Yi Hao Cui Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050 Scientific Reports |
| title | Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050 |
| title_full | Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050 |
| title_fullStr | Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050 |
| title_short | Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050 |
| title_sort | hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the yangtze river basin from 2020 to 2050 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88135-5 |
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