Spatiotemporal evolution analysis and prediction of drought in Henan Province based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index
Drought is one of the major natural disasters in the world, and it is important to understand and grasp the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought for drought monitoring and prevention. In this study, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated based on...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Water Supply |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ws.iwaponline.com/content/23/1/410 |
| _version_ | 1797903733953134592 |
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| author | Dang Luo Liangshuai Li |
| author_facet | Dang Luo Liangshuai Li |
| author_sort | Dang Luo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Drought is one of the major natural disasters in the world, and it is important to understand and grasp the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought for drought monitoring and prevention. In this study, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly precipitation and average temperature data from 15 meteorological stations in Henan Province, China during the period 1987–2020. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of droughts in Henan Province were analyzed using run theory and Moran's I, and drought prediction was carried out using grey disaster theory. The results show that: (1) During the period 1987–2020, the overall drought in Henan Province shows a slow intensification trend, and SPEI-12 has a certain adaptability in the drought characterization of Henan Province; (2) The frequency of droughts in the northern and eastern regions of Henan Province is high, the southern region is prone to continuous drought, the drought ephemeris and intensity show a strong positive correlation, and the spatial spillover effect of autumn drought is the most obvious; (3) The grey disaster prediction model has excellent accuracy and predicts that the next possible drought in Henan Province will be in the east of Henan Province in the spring of 2023.
HIGHLIGHTS
SPEI is used to monitor drought conditions.;
Drought intensity and drought duration in Henan Province show positive correlation.;
Spatial spillover effect of autumn drought in Henan Province is obvious.;
A grey disaster prediction model was constructed for drought.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T09:37:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5e82154dd912490c9e264a0e2756ff8d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1606-9749 1607-0798 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T09:37:34Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water Supply |
| spelling | doaj.art-5e82154dd912490c9e264a0e2756ff8d2023-02-17T17:11:43ZengIWA PublishingWater Supply1606-97491607-07982023-01-0123141042710.2166/ws.2022.443443Spatiotemporal evolution analysis and prediction of drought in Henan Province based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indexDang Luo0Liangshuai Li1 North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China Drought is one of the major natural disasters in the world, and it is important to understand and grasp the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought for drought monitoring and prevention. In this study, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly precipitation and average temperature data from 15 meteorological stations in Henan Province, China during the period 1987–2020. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of droughts in Henan Province were analyzed using run theory and Moran's I, and drought prediction was carried out using grey disaster theory. The results show that: (1) During the period 1987–2020, the overall drought in Henan Province shows a slow intensification trend, and SPEI-12 has a certain adaptability in the drought characterization of Henan Province; (2) The frequency of droughts in the northern and eastern regions of Henan Province is high, the southern region is prone to continuous drought, the drought ephemeris and intensity show a strong positive correlation, and the spatial spillover effect of autumn drought is the most obvious; (3) The grey disaster prediction model has excellent accuracy and predicts that the next possible drought in Henan Province will be in the east of Henan Province in the spring of 2023. HIGHLIGHTS SPEI is used to monitor drought conditions.; Drought intensity and drought duration in Henan Province show positive correlation.; Spatial spillover effect of autumn drought in Henan Province is obvious.; A grey disaster prediction model was constructed for drought.;http://ws.iwaponline.com/content/23/1/410droughtgrey disaster predictionhenan provincemoran's irun theoryspei |
| spellingShingle | Dang Luo Liangshuai Li Spatiotemporal evolution analysis and prediction of drought in Henan Province based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index Water Supply drought grey disaster prediction henan province moran's i run theory spei |
| title | Spatiotemporal evolution analysis and prediction of drought in Henan Province based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal evolution analysis and prediction of drought in Henan Province based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal evolution analysis and prediction of drought in Henan Province based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal evolution analysis and prediction of drought in Henan Province based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal evolution analysis and prediction of drought in Henan Province based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal evolution analysis and prediction of drought in henan province based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index |
| topic | drought grey disaster prediction henan province moran's i run theory spei |
| url | http://ws.iwaponline.com/content/23/1/410 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dangluo spatiotemporalevolutionanalysisandpredictionofdroughtinhenanprovincebasedonstandardizedprecipitationevapotranspirationindex AT liangshuaili spatiotemporalevolutionanalysisandpredictionofdroughtinhenanprovincebasedonstandardizedprecipitationevapotranspirationindex |