| Summary: | Background Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are increasingly prevalent in Chinese residents, and are happening younger and younger, which have become a major threat to population health. Objective To analyze the characteristics and trends of premature deaths due to major NCDs among Shenzhen permanent residents aged 30-69 from 2014 to 2020, providing a basis for the formulation of chronic disease prevention and control policies. Methods The cause-of-death data of Shenzhen permanent residents (30-69 years old) came from the all-cause-of-death surveillance system operated by the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The causes were classified into four major NCDs including cancer (C00-C97), diabetes (E10-E14), cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (I00-I99), and chronic respiratory disease (J30-J98) in accordance with the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10). Crude mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature death were used for analyzing deaths due to the four above-mentioned NCDs. The annual percentage change (APC) was used to measure the temporal trend of each index. Results During 2014-2020, no significant changes were found in the overall trends of crude mortality and age-standardized mortality of the four major NCDs (APC=-2.70%, P>0.05; APC=-2.00%, P>0.05), while the proportion of deaths due to the four major NCDs of all deaths (76.58% -82.63%) showed a significantly increasing trend (APC=1.20%, P <0.05). To be specific, the trend of crude mortality of cancer (APC=-1.90%, -0.90%; P>0.05), diabetes (APC=3.80%, 2.20%; P>0.05) and chronic respiratory diseases (APC=-1.30%, -0.60%; P>0.05) changed insignificantly, so did the trend of age-standardized mortality of them, while the crude mortality and age-standardized mortality (34.22%-48.85%) of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases showed a notable decrease (APC=-4.70%, -4.60%; P<0.05). In women, the crude mortality and age-standardized mortality of diabetes demonstrated a notable decrease (APC=-17.00%, -17.00%; P<0.05), so did those of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease (APC=-7.10%, -6.10%; P<0.05). The probability of premature death caused by the four major NCDs during the period fluctuated from 10.17 to 12.45%, but with no significant changes (P>0.05). But the trend in the probability of premature death caused by cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease showed an obvious decrease (APC=-5.10%, P<0.05). The probability of premature death from diabetes and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in women decreased (APC=-18.70%, -5.40%; P<0.05). The probability of premature death caused by the four major NCDs in males ranged from 12.78% to 17.09%, which was higher than that (6.59% to 8.13%) in females. Conclusion The crude mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature death caused by cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease among Shenzhen permanent residents showed a decreasing trend during 2014-2020. In particular, the crude mortality and age-standardized mortality and probability of premature death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease and diabetes among females declined significantly. The probability of premature death of the four major chronic diseases fluctuated between 12.78%-17.09% in males and 6.59%-8.13% in females. The probability of premature death of the four major chronic diseases in males was higher than that in females.
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