Interactions between apparently ‘primary’ weather-driven hazards and their cost
A statistical analysis of the largest weather-driven hazards in the UK contradicts the typical view that each predominates in distinct events that do not interact with those of other hazard types (i.e., are ‘primary’); this potentially has implications for any multi-hazard environments globally wher...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104003 |
| _version_ | 1797748627315097600 |
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| author | J K Hillier N Macdonald G C Leckebusch A Stavrinides |
| author_facet | J K Hillier N Macdonald G C Leckebusch A Stavrinides |
| author_sort | J K Hillier |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A statistical analysis of the largest weather-driven hazards in the UK contradicts the typical view that each predominates in distinct events that do not interact with those of other hazard types (i.e., are ‘primary’); this potentially has implications for any multi-hazard environments globally where some types of severe event are still thought to occur independently. By a first co-investigation of long (1884–2008) meteorological time-series and nationwide insurance losses for UK domestic houses (averaging £1.1 billion/yr), new systematic interactions within a 1 year timeframe are identified between temporally-distinct floods, winter wind storms, and shrink–swell subsidence events ( P < 0.03); this increases costs by up to £0.3 billion/yr (i.e., 26%), although impacts will be spatially variable depending upon the interplay of hazards. ‘Memory’ required in the environmental system to cause these intra-annual links between event types appears to reside in soil moisture and, tentatively, sea surface temperatures. Similar, unidentified interactions between non-synchronous events are likely worldwide, and the analytical methods we have developed to identify and quantify them are suitable for application to meteorological, geological (e.g., volcanic) and cryospheric (e.g., avalanches) hazards. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:08:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5eb89c520a5c4ef48c07a1ba939874c6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:08:26Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-5eb89c520a5c4ef48c07a1ba939874c62023-08-09T14:15:09ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262015-01-01101010400310.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104003Interactions between apparently ‘primary’ weather-driven hazards and their costJ K Hillier0N Macdonald1G C Leckebusch2A Stavrinides3Department of Geography, Loughborough University , Loughborough, LE11 3TU, UKDepartment of Geography and Planning & Institute of Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool , Liverpool, L69 7ZT, UKSchool of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham , Birmingham, B15 2TT, UKDepartment of Geography, Loughborough University , Loughborough, LE11 3TU, UKA statistical analysis of the largest weather-driven hazards in the UK contradicts the typical view that each predominates in distinct events that do not interact with those of other hazard types (i.e., are ‘primary’); this potentially has implications for any multi-hazard environments globally where some types of severe event are still thought to occur independently. By a first co-investigation of long (1884–2008) meteorological time-series and nationwide insurance losses for UK domestic houses (averaging £1.1 billion/yr), new systematic interactions within a 1 year timeframe are identified between temporally-distinct floods, winter wind storms, and shrink–swell subsidence events ( P < 0.03); this increases costs by up to £0.3 billion/yr (i.e., 26%), although impacts will be spatially variable depending upon the interplay of hazards. ‘Memory’ required in the environmental system to cause these intra-annual links between event types appears to reside in soil moisture and, tentatively, sea surface temperatures. Similar, unidentified interactions between non-synchronous events are likely worldwide, and the analytical methods we have developed to identify and quantify them are suitable for application to meteorological, geological (e.g., volcanic) and cryospheric (e.g., avalanches) hazards.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104003atmosphericinteractionextreme weatherriskstormflood |
| spellingShingle | J K Hillier N Macdonald G C Leckebusch A Stavrinides Interactions between apparently ‘primary’ weather-driven hazards and their cost Environmental Research Letters atmospheric interaction extreme weather risk storm flood |
| title | Interactions between apparently ‘primary’ weather-driven hazards and their cost |
| title_full | Interactions between apparently ‘primary’ weather-driven hazards and their cost |
| title_fullStr | Interactions between apparently ‘primary’ weather-driven hazards and their cost |
| title_full_unstemmed | Interactions between apparently ‘primary’ weather-driven hazards and their cost |
| title_short | Interactions between apparently ‘primary’ weather-driven hazards and their cost |
| title_sort | interactions between apparently primary weather driven hazards and their cost |
| topic | atmospheric interaction extreme weather risk storm flood |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104003 |
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