Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand
Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, du...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Mahidol University
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Environment and Natural Resources Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/ennrj/article/view/243077 |
| _version_ | 1818670501748277248 |
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| author | Allan Sriratana Tabucanon Areeya Rittima Detchasit Raveephinit Yutthana Phankamolsil Wudhichart Sawangphol Jidapa Kraisangka Yutthana Talaluxmana Varawoot Vudhivanich Wenchao Xue |
| author_facet | Allan Sriratana Tabucanon Areeya Rittima Detchasit Raveephinit Yutthana Phankamolsil Wudhichart Sawangphol Jidapa Kraisangka Yutthana Talaluxmana Varawoot Vudhivanich Wenchao Xue |
| author_sort | Allan Sriratana Tabucanon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, due to climate change, changing rainfall variability is expected to render the reliability of the rule curves insecure. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of climate change on the reliability of the current reservoir operation rules of Bhumibol Dam. The future scenarios from 2000 to 2099 are based on EC-EARTH under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RegCM4. MIKE11 HD was developed for the inflow simulation. The model generates the inflow well (R2=0.70). Generally, the trend of increasing inflow amounts is expected to continue in the dry seasons from 2000-2099, while large fluctuations of inflow are expected to be found in the wet seasons, reflecting high uncertainties. In the case of standard deviations, a larger deviation is predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the reservoir’s operation in a climate change study, standard operating procedures were applied using historical release records to estimate daily reservoir release needed to serve downstream water demand in the future. It can be concluded that there is high risk of current reservoir operating rules towards the operation reliability under RCP4.5 (80% reliability), but the risk is lower under RCP8.5 (87% reliability) due to increased inflow amounts. The unmanageability occurs in the wet season, cautioning the need to redesign the rules. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T07:09:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5ec5bb9fac4a4ab692b50e36a942c03b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1686-5456 2408-2384 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T07:09:07Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | Mahidol University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environment and Natural Resources Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-5ec5bb9fac4a4ab692b50e36a942c03b2022-12-21T21:59:05ZengMahidol UniversityEnvironment and Natural Resources Journal1686-54562408-23842021-06-0119426628110.32526/ennrj/19/2021012Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, ThailandAllan Sriratana Tabucanon0Areeya Rittima1Detchasit Raveephinit2Yutthana Phankamolsil3Wudhichart Sawangphol4Jidapa Kraisangka5Yutthana Talaluxmana6Varawoot Vudhivanich7Wenchao Xue8Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom 73170, ThailandFaculty of Engineering, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom 73170, ThailandFaculty of Engineering, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom 73170, ThailandEnvironmental Engineering and Disaster Management Program, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom 73170, ThailandFaculty of Information and Communication Technology, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom 73170, ThailandFaculty of Information and Communication Technology, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom 73170, ThailandFaculty of Engineering, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, ThailandFaculty of Engineering at Kamphaeng Saen, Kasetsart University, Nakhon Pathom 73140, ThailandDepartment of Energy, Environment and Climate Change, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, ThailandBhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, due to climate change, changing rainfall variability is expected to render the reliability of the rule curves insecure. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of climate change on the reliability of the current reservoir operation rules of Bhumibol Dam. The future scenarios from 2000 to 2099 are based on EC-EARTH under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RegCM4. MIKE11 HD was developed for the inflow simulation. The model generates the inflow well (R2=0.70). Generally, the trend of increasing inflow amounts is expected to continue in the dry seasons from 2000-2099, while large fluctuations of inflow are expected to be found in the wet seasons, reflecting high uncertainties. In the case of standard deviations, a larger deviation is predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the reservoir’s operation in a climate change study, standard operating procedures were applied using historical release records to estimate daily reservoir release needed to serve downstream water demand in the future. It can be concluded that there is high risk of current reservoir operating rules towards the operation reliability under RCP4.5 (80% reliability), but the risk is lower under RCP8.5 (87% reliability) due to increased inflow amounts. The unmanageability occurs in the wet season, cautioning the need to redesign the rules.https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/ennrj/article/view/243077bhumibol damclimate changehydrological modelping river basinreservoir reliability |
| spellingShingle | Allan Sriratana Tabucanon Areeya Rittima Detchasit Raveephinit Yutthana Phankamolsil Wudhichart Sawangphol Jidapa Kraisangka Yutthana Talaluxmana Varawoot Vudhivanich Wenchao Xue Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand Environment and Natural Resources Journal bhumibol dam climate change hydrological model ping river basin reservoir reliability |
| title | Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand |
| title_full | Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand |
| title_short | Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand |
| title_sort | impact of climate change on reservoir reliability a case of bhumibol dam in ping river basin thailand |
| topic | bhumibol dam climate change hydrological model ping river basin reservoir reliability |
| url | https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/ennrj/article/view/243077 |
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