Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model
Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the n...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124018 |
| _version_ | 1797747994264600576 |
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| author | D Leclère P Havlík S Fuss E Schmid A Mosnier B Walsh H Valin M Herrero N Khabarov M Obersteiner |
| author_facet | D Leclère P Havlík S Fuss E Schmid A Mosnier B Walsh H Valin M Herrero N Khabarov M Obersteiner |
| author_sort | D Leclère |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5ee9b96767ed4f5894660589add25c10 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:34Z |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-5ee9b96767ed4f5894660589add25c102023-08-09T14:44:04ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262014-01-0191212401810.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124018Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global modelD Leclère0P Havlík1S Fuss2E Schmid3A Mosnier4B Walsh5H Valin6M Herrero7N Khabarov8M Obersteiner9Ecosystem Services Management, International Institute Of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, AustriaEcosystem Services Management, International Institute Of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, AustriaEcosystem Services Management, International Institute Of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; Resources and International Trade Group, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, GermanyInstitute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences , Vienna, AustriaEcosystem Services Management, International Institute Of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, AustriaEcosystem Services Management, International Institute Of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, AustriaEcosystem Services Management, International Institute Of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, AustriaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 306 Carmody Road, 4067 Qld, AustraliaEcosystem Services Management, International Institute Of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, AustriaEcosystem Services Management, International Institute Of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, AustriaClimate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124018agricultureclimate changeadaptationtransformational changeuncertaintyrobust adaptation |
| spellingShingle | D Leclère P Havlík S Fuss E Schmid A Mosnier B Walsh H Valin M Herrero N Khabarov M Obersteiner Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model Environmental Research Letters agriculture climate change adaptation transformational change uncertainty robust adaptation |
| title | Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model |
| title_full | Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model |
| title_fullStr | Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model |
| title_short | Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model |
| title_sort | climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems insights from a global model |
| topic | agriculture climate change adaptation transformational change uncertainty robust adaptation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124018 |
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