Housing market dynamics of the post-Sandy Hudson estuary, Long Island Sound, and New Jersey coastline are explained by NFIP participation
How flooding affects home values can determine the path of economic recovery for communities and have lasting impacts on national and global financial systems. Yet, our understanding of how flood insurance, community risk perception, and past flooding events shape future housing prices (HPs) remains...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea38 |
| _version_ | 1797747234970796032 |
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| author | Sandeep Poudel Conner Caridad Rebecca Elliott James Knighton |
| author_facet | Sandeep Poudel Conner Caridad Rebecca Elliott James Knighton |
| author_sort | Sandeep Poudel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | How flooding affects home values can determine the path of economic recovery for communities and have lasting impacts on national and global financial systems. Yet, our understanding of how flood insurance, community risk perception, and past flooding events shape future housing prices (HPs) remains limited. To explore this, we used a socio-environmental (SE) model and studied the temporal impacts of flooding on mean housing values across 496 coastal census tracts of New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey, US, from 1970 to 2021. The modeling exercise demonstrated that the initial economic impact of Hurricane Sandy was largely absorbed by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); however, the region then exhibited a long-term decline in home values, which was well described by an interrupted time series model. We found significant correlations between SE model parameters describing HP change and those describing tract-scale behaviors and perceptions, suggesting that the salience of past flooding events and NFIP participation may be important regional drivers of HPs. Tracts with greater post-flood change in active insurance policies exhibited larger decreases in mean home values than those with more stable NFIP participation. An improved understanding of relationships between HPs, flood insurance, and community perceptions could support more equitable distributions of resources and improved policy interventions to reduce flooding risk. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:47:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5f4b2b1c169a49f3b32e875bb3e62dd1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:47:54Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-5f4b2b1c169a49f3b32e875bb3e62dd12023-08-09T15:20:10ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0118909400910.1088/1748-9326/acea38Housing market dynamics of the post-Sandy Hudson estuary, Long Island Sound, and New Jersey coastline are explained by NFIP participationSandeep Poudel0https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8342-7935Conner Caridad1Rebecca Elliott2James Knighton3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4162-996XDepartment of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Connecticut , Storrs, CT 06269, United States of AmericaDepartment of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Connecticut , Storrs, CT 06269, United States of AmericaDepartment of Sociology, London School of Economics and Political Science , London WC2A 2A3, United KingdomDepartment of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Connecticut , Storrs, CT 06269, United States of AmericaHow flooding affects home values can determine the path of economic recovery for communities and have lasting impacts on national and global financial systems. Yet, our understanding of how flood insurance, community risk perception, and past flooding events shape future housing prices (HPs) remains limited. To explore this, we used a socio-environmental (SE) model and studied the temporal impacts of flooding on mean housing values across 496 coastal census tracts of New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey, US, from 1970 to 2021. The modeling exercise demonstrated that the initial economic impact of Hurricane Sandy was largely absorbed by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); however, the region then exhibited a long-term decline in home values, which was well described by an interrupted time series model. We found significant correlations between SE model parameters describing HP change and those describing tract-scale behaviors and perceptions, suggesting that the salience of past flooding events and NFIP participation may be important regional drivers of HPs. Tracts with greater post-flood change in active insurance policies exhibited larger decreases in mean home values than those with more stable NFIP participation. An improved understanding of relationships between HPs, flood insurance, and community perceptions could support more equitable distributions of resources and improved policy interventions to reduce flooding risk.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea38socio-environmental modelinghousing pricesflood insuranceflooding riskrisk perception |
| spellingShingle | Sandeep Poudel Conner Caridad Rebecca Elliott James Knighton Housing market dynamics of the post-Sandy Hudson estuary, Long Island Sound, and New Jersey coastline are explained by NFIP participation Environmental Research Letters socio-environmental modeling housing prices flood insurance flooding risk risk perception |
| title | Housing market dynamics of the post-Sandy Hudson estuary, Long Island Sound, and New Jersey coastline are explained by NFIP participation |
| title_full | Housing market dynamics of the post-Sandy Hudson estuary, Long Island Sound, and New Jersey coastline are explained by NFIP participation |
| title_fullStr | Housing market dynamics of the post-Sandy Hudson estuary, Long Island Sound, and New Jersey coastline are explained by NFIP participation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Housing market dynamics of the post-Sandy Hudson estuary, Long Island Sound, and New Jersey coastline are explained by NFIP participation |
| title_short | Housing market dynamics of the post-Sandy Hudson estuary, Long Island Sound, and New Jersey coastline are explained by NFIP participation |
| title_sort | housing market dynamics of the post sandy hudson estuary long island sound and new jersey coastline are explained by nfip participation |
| topic | socio-environmental modeling housing prices flood insurance flooding risk risk perception |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea38 |
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