Estimation of the case fatality rate based on stratification for the COVID-19 outbreak.
This work is motivated by the recent worldwide pandemic of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). When an epidemiological disease is prevalent, estimating the case fatality rate, the proportion of deaths out of the total cases, accurately and quickly is important as the case fatality rate is one...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246921 |
| _version_ | 1819292072360804352 |
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| author | Byungwon Kim Seonghong Kim Woncheol Jang Sungkyu Jung Johan Lim |
| author_facet | Byungwon Kim Seonghong Kim Woncheol Jang Sungkyu Jung Johan Lim |
| author_sort | Byungwon Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This work is motivated by the recent worldwide pandemic of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). When an epidemiological disease is prevalent, estimating the case fatality rate, the proportion of deaths out of the total cases, accurately and quickly is important as the case fatality rate is one of the crucial indicators of the risk of a disease. In this work, we propose an alternative estimator of the case fatality rate that provides more accurate estimate during an outbreak by reducing the downward bias (underestimation) of the naive CFR, the proportion of deaths out of confirmed cases at each time point, which is the most commonly used estimator due to the simplicity. The proposed estimator is designed to achieve the availability of real-time update by using the commonly reported quantities, the numbers of confirmed, cured, deceased cases, in the computation. To enhance the accuracy, the proposed estimator adapts a stratification, which allows the estimator to use information from heterogeneous strata separately. By the COVID-19 cases of China, South Korea and the United States, we numerically show the proposed stratification-based estimator plays a role of providing an early warning about the severity of a epidemiological disease that estimates the final case fatality rate accurately and shows faster convergence to the final case fatality rate. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-24T03:48:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5fc60a129a12474bb8ad1b663549a3e9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-24T03:48:43Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-5fc60a129a12474bb8ad1b663549a3e92022-12-21T17:16:39ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032021-01-01162e024692110.1371/journal.pone.0246921Estimation of the case fatality rate based on stratification for the COVID-19 outbreak.Byungwon KimSeonghong KimWoncheol JangSungkyu JungJohan LimThis work is motivated by the recent worldwide pandemic of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). When an epidemiological disease is prevalent, estimating the case fatality rate, the proportion of deaths out of the total cases, accurately and quickly is important as the case fatality rate is one of the crucial indicators of the risk of a disease. In this work, we propose an alternative estimator of the case fatality rate that provides more accurate estimate during an outbreak by reducing the downward bias (underestimation) of the naive CFR, the proportion of deaths out of confirmed cases at each time point, which is the most commonly used estimator due to the simplicity. The proposed estimator is designed to achieve the availability of real-time update by using the commonly reported quantities, the numbers of confirmed, cured, deceased cases, in the computation. To enhance the accuracy, the proposed estimator adapts a stratification, which allows the estimator to use information from heterogeneous strata separately. By the COVID-19 cases of China, South Korea and the United States, we numerically show the proposed stratification-based estimator plays a role of providing an early warning about the severity of a epidemiological disease that estimates the final case fatality rate accurately and shows faster convergence to the final case fatality rate.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246921 |
| spellingShingle | Byungwon Kim Seonghong Kim Woncheol Jang Sungkyu Jung Johan Lim Estimation of the case fatality rate based on stratification for the COVID-19 outbreak. PLoS ONE |
| title | Estimation of the case fatality rate based on stratification for the COVID-19 outbreak. |
| title_full | Estimation of the case fatality rate based on stratification for the COVID-19 outbreak. |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of the case fatality rate based on stratification for the COVID-19 outbreak. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of the case fatality rate based on stratification for the COVID-19 outbreak. |
| title_short | Estimation of the case fatality rate based on stratification for the COVID-19 outbreak. |
| title_sort | estimation of the case fatality rate based on stratification for the covid 19 outbreak |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246921 |
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