Improving wellbeing and reducing future world population.
Almost 80% of the 4 billion projected increase in world population by 2100 comes from 37 Mid-African Countries (MACs), caused mostly by slow declines in Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Historically, TFR has declined in response to increases in wellbeing associated with economic development. We show that...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2018-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6135380?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1818942577714397184 |
|---|---|
| author | William W Murdoch Fang-I Chu Allan Stewart-Oaten Mark Q Wilber |
| author_facet | William W Murdoch Fang-I Chu Allan Stewart-Oaten Mark Q Wilber |
| author_sort | William W Murdoch |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Almost 80% of the 4 billion projected increase in world population by 2100 comes from 37 Mid-African Countries (MACs), caused mostly by slow declines in Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Historically, TFR has declined in response to increases in wellbeing associated with economic development. We show that, when Infant Survival Rate (ISR, a proxy for wellbeing) has increased, MAC fertility has declined at the same rate, in relation to ISR, as it did in 61 comparable Other Developing Countries (ODCs) whose average fertility is close to replacement level. If MAC ISR were to increase at the historic rate of these ODCs, and TFR declined correspondingly, then the projected world population in 2100 would be decreasing and 1.1 billion lower than currently projected. Such rates of ISR increase, and TFR decrease, are quite feasible and have occurred in comparable ODCs. Increased efforts to improve the wellbeing of poor MAC populations are key. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T07:13:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5fe952ea50c1492f80d0c9379cb68928 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T07:13:39Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-5fe952ea50c1492f80d0c9379cb689282022-12-21T19:48:51ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032018-01-01139e020285110.1371/journal.pone.0202851Improving wellbeing and reducing future world population.William W MurdochFang-I ChuAllan Stewart-OatenMark Q WilberAlmost 80% of the 4 billion projected increase in world population by 2100 comes from 37 Mid-African Countries (MACs), caused mostly by slow declines in Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Historically, TFR has declined in response to increases in wellbeing associated with economic development. We show that, when Infant Survival Rate (ISR, a proxy for wellbeing) has increased, MAC fertility has declined at the same rate, in relation to ISR, as it did in 61 comparable Other Developing Countries (ODCs) whose average fertility is close to replacement level. If MAC ISR were to increase at the historic rate of these ODCs, and TFR declined correspondingly, then the projected world population in 2100 would be decreasing and 1.1 billion lower than currently projected. Such rates of ISR increase, and TFR decrease, are quite feasible and have occurred in comparable ODCs. Increased efforts to improve the wellbeing of poor MAC populations are key.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6135380?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | William W Murdoch Fang-I Chu Allan Stewart-Oaten Mark Q Wilber Improving wellbeing and reducing future world population. PLoS ONE |
| title | Improving wellbeing and reducing future world population. |
| title_full | Improving wellbeing and reducing future world population. |
| title_fullStr | Improving wellbeing and reducing future world population. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Improving wellbeing and reducing future world population. |
| title_short | Improving wellbeing and reducing future world population. |
| title_sort | improving wellbeing and reducing future world population |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6135380?pdf=render |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT williamwmurdoch improvingwellbeingandreducingfutureworldpopulation AT fangichu improvingwellbeingandreducingfutureworldpopulation AT allanstewartoaten improvingwellbeingandreducingfutureworldpopulation AT markqwilber improvingwellbeingandreducingfutureworldpopulation |